Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is edging closer to calling a snap general election, a move that would test her personal mandate for the first time and could reshape Japan’s political landscape amid economic uncertainty and rising tensions with China.
Speculation intensified on Sunday after Hirofumi Yoshimura, leader of the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), the junior partner in Takaichi’s governing coalition, said her thinking on election timing appeared to have entered a “new stage.” Yoshimura told public broadcaster NHK that he would not be surprised if the prime minister moved ahead with an early vote, echoing media reports that she is considering dissolving parliament for an election in early or mid-February.
The Yomiuri Shimbun reported on Friday, citing government sources, that Takaichi was weighing election dates of Feb. 8 or Feb. 15. While Yoshimura said he and Takaichi did not discuss specific dates during their recent meeting, his remarks were widely interpreted as confirmation that preparations are under way behind the scenes.
If called, the election would be the first national contest for Takaichi since she took office in October, after winning the presidency of the long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Japan’s first female prime minister, Takaichi has enjoyed robust approval ratings in her first months in office, buoyed by her image as a decisive conservative leader and her promises of aggressive fiscal stimulus to counter inflation and revive growth in the world’s third-largest economy.
Often compared to Britain’s Margaret Thatcher for her ideological clarity and hawkish instincts, Takaichi has appealed strongly to right-wing voters with her tough rhetoric on national security and China. At the same time, those positions have complicated Japan’s already delicate relationship with Beijing, creating diplomatic and economic risks that loom large over any election campaign.
Speaking to NHK in an interview recorded last week and aired Sunday, Takaichi declined to say whether she would call an early election. Instead, she emphasized her immediate focus on economic management, saying she had instructed cabinet ministers to ensure the smooth execution of a supplementary budget for the current fiscal year, which ends in March, and to secure parliamentary approval for next year’s budget.
“At present, I am focusing on the immediate challenge of ensuring that the public feels the benefits of our stimulus policies aimed at cushioning the blow of inflation,” she said.
That stance has not quieted concerns within the political establishment. Tetsuo Saito, leader of Komeito, an opposition party, warned that a February election would make it nearly impossible to pass the budget before the fiscal year-end, calling the timing irresponsible given the fragility of the economy. He said he was surprised by reports that Takaichi might dissolve parliament as soon as it reconvenes on Jan. 23.
Takaichi’s proposed budget, totaling about US$783 billion, is her first as prime minister and includes her flagship spending initiatives aimed at supporting households and businesses squeezed by rising prices. The yen weakened against the U.S. dollar on Friday following reports of her election plans, reflecting investor unease about political uncertainty and potential delays to fiscal measures.
Japan’s economy has so far absorbed the impact of higher U.S. tariffs, but persistent food inflation has weighed on consumer spending. Economists warn that if the government fails to enact the budget by the end of March, it would be forced to compile a stop-gap budget, potentially delaying stimulus payments and public investment.
Adding to the sense that an election may be imminent, the Internal Affairs Ministry said on Saturday it had asked regional election committees to begin preparations for a possible early vote. While the ministry said it was merely responding to media reports, political analyst Shigenobu Tamura said such a move typically signals that a decision has effectively been made.
Opposition figures are also bracing for an early showdown. Yoshihiko Noda, a former prime minister and current head of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the largest opposition group, said he had initially expected Takaichi to pass the budget before going to the polls. He now believes she may dissolve parliament as early as Jan. 23.
Beyond domestic economics, Japan’s strained ties with China pose another major risk. Trade tensions could hit Japan’s export-reliant economy hard if Beijing expands curbs on critical materials such as rare earths. Relations deteriorated sharply in November after Takaichi said a Chinese attack on democratically governed Taiwan could constitute an existential threat to Japan, potentially justifying a military response. China, which claims Taiwan as its territory, reacted angrily.
Since then, Beijing has urged its citizens to avoid travel to Japan, canceled bilateral events, and restricted exports of dual-use items linked to Japan’s defense sector. Takaichi told NHK that any export curbs targeting Japan alone would violate international norms and were unacceptable. She said Tokyo was pursuing diplomatic talks with Beijing while also working with Group of Seven partners to diversify supply chains and reduce dependence on any single country.
Japan is not required to hold its next lower house election until October 2028. A decisive victory in a snap poll would significantly strengthen Takaichi’s grip on power, bolstering her authority within the LDP and stabilizing her coalition with Ishin, which currently holds only a narrow majority in the lower house and remains in the minority in the upper chamber.
Takaichi rose to the premiership after her predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, stepped aside following a series of electoral setbacks for the LDP. Although she was approved by parliament, she has yet to face voters nationwide. An early election would give her the opportunity to convert personal popularity into a clear mandate—or risk exposing the limits of her support at a moment of heightened economic and geopolitical tension.
