The 2024 United States presidential election, set to take place on November 5, is poised to be one of the most consequential and closely watched in recent history. As of the latest aggregate of national polls by Nate Silver, Democrat Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over Republican Donald Trump, with a margin of 48.8% to 45.0%. This marks a slight shift from last Sunday, when Harris led Trump by 48.8% to 44.8%. These figures suggest a highly competitive race, reflecting deep national divisions and the significant impact of recent political developments.
Joe Biden, who served as President prior to his withdrawal as the Democratic candidate on July 21, had been trailing Trump in the national polls by a margin of 45.2% to 41.2% at the time of his departure. The age factor looms large in this election, with Biden almost 82 at the time of his withdrawal, Trump now 78, and Harris at 60. These ages bring questions about generational leadership, the future direction of the country, and the experience required to lead a nation in tumultuous times.
Two major events occurred last week that have the potential to influence the trajectory of the race. The Democratic National Convention (DNC) was held from August 19–22, providing Harris with a national platform to present her vision and policies. The convention traditionally offers a bounce in the polls, but its lasting impact remains uncertain. Complicating matters further, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed Trump on August 23. Kennedy had garnered about 4% support in national polls, and his endorsement may shift some of his supporters towards Trump, thereby altering the dynamics of the election.
Looking ahead, the next significant event is the September 10 debate between Harris and Trump. The debates are expected to be a crucial moment for both candidates to make their case to the American public. The June 27 debate between Biden and Trump had a significant impact, leading to Biden’s eventual withdrawal. Whether Harris can maintain her composure and effectively challenge Trump could be a decisive factor in the outcome of the election.
While the national popular vote serves as a key indicator, the U.S. president is ultimately elected by the Electoral College. Each state receives electoral votes equivalent to its federal House seats, which are based on population, and its two Senate seats. Almost all states use a winner-takes-all approach for awarding electoral votes. To win, a candidate needs at least 270 out of 538 electoral votes. As of now, Silver’s model indicates that Harris’ chance of winning the Electoral College has fallen to 47.3%, with Trump slightly favored at 52.4%. This marks a shift from August 14, when Harris’ win probability peaked at 57%. It’s also the first time Trump has been favored to win since August 3.
The Electoral College system introduces a bias that could favor Trump relative to the national popular vote. Silver’s analysis suggests that for Harris to be the favorite in the Electoral College, she would need to win the popular vote by at least two percentage points. This discrepancy underscores the critical nature of key swing states, where the outcome is often determined by a narrow margin.
Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, emerges as a pivotal battleground state in this election. Silver’s model indicates that the winner of Pennsylvania has about a 92% chance of winning the Electoral College. Recent polling in Pennsylvania has shown mixed results for Harris, although a Morning Consult poll suggests she holds a four-point lead in the state. Winning Pennsylvania could be the linchpin for Harris’ Electoral College strategy.
Harris’ choice of running mate also plays a crucial role in her electoral strategy. Some analysts believe that Harris should have selected Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro instead of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz to maximize her chances of winning the Electoral College. Shapiro’s local appeal in Pennsylvania could have provided a crucial boost in this key swing state. The decision to choose Walz, a popular governor in his own right, may not deliver the same strategic advantage in terms of securing the Electoral College votes.
Another factor influencing Harris’ chances is the convention bounce adjustment. Historically, candidates receive a temporary boost in the polls following their party’s national convention. However, these gains tend to fade in subsequent weeks. Harris’ current national lead of 3.8 points is slightly below the threshold needed to sustain her Electoral College probability. Should her lead remain steady over the next two weeks, her chances might improve, but the model anticipates a potential decline.
The impact of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal from the race and his endorsement of Trump also cannot be overlooked. Harris may have initially benefited from Kennedy’s presence in the race, as his candidacy likely siphoned votes away from Trump. With Kennedy no longer a factor, his supporters could shift their allegiance to Trump, thereby narrowing Harris’ lead.
The initial surge in Harris’ popularity following Biden’s withdrawal appears to have been driven by relief among Democratic voters. However, this “honeymoon” period may be coming to an end. While Biden’s approval ratings have improved slightly since his withdrawal, his net approval rating remains negative. Harris, as a candidate closely aligned with Biden’s policies, could face challenges in distancing herself from the administration’s perceived shortcomings.
Harris’ net favorability ratings have shown improvement since her entry into the race, moving from a negative double-digit rating to a more modest -1.4. However, the momentum appears to have stalled in recent weeks. Without continued gains in favorability, Harris may struggle to expand her appeal beyond the Democratic base and attract the independent and moderate voters necessary to secure victory.
In contrast, Trump’s net favorability has dipped to -9.2, following a temporary boost after the mid-July Republican convention. His running mate, JD Vance, also has a negative favorability rating of -9.8, whereas Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz, enjoys a positive rating of +4.8. The contrasting favorability of the vice-presidential candidates could play a subtle yet important role in swaying undecided voters.
The 2024 U.S. presidential election remains a highly fluid and unpredictable contest. With the national polls showing a tight race and the Electoral College introducing an additional layer of complexity, both Harris and Trump face significant challenges in the weeks leading up to the election. Key events such as the upcoming debate and the evolving political landscape in critical swing states like Pennsylvania will likely play decisive roles. Harris must navigate the post-convention period carefully to maintain her lead, while Trump will aim to capitalize on any shifts in voter sentiment. As the race tightens, both campaigns will need to strategize effectively to secure the necessary electoral votes to claim victory.
