The 22nd round of the Astana peace talks on Syria commenced on Monday in Kazakhstan’s capital, bringing together representatives from Syria’s government, opposition factions, and the conflict’s three guarantor states: Russia, Iran, and Türkiye. The meeting, held over two days, also included observers from neighboring states like Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon, as well as representatives from the United Nations.
As violence escalates across the Middle East, the talks are anticipated to address Syria’s stability and the risk of a broader regional conflict, with particular emphasis on the implications of shifting U.S. policy toward Syria and the mounting tensions involving Israel, Lebanon, and Gaza.
Initiated by Russia in 2017 and supported by Türkiye and Iran, the Astana peace process has been a unique forum for discussing the Syrian crisis. Unlike previous rounds of talks, however, this gathering is framed by heightened regional instability. Analysts and diplomats alike underscore the importance of these talks in managing Syria’s conflict as it faces new pressures from a shifting geopolitical landscape.
The current talks, led by Russia’s presidential envoy to Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, will cover a range of complex issues. These include potential changes in U.S. policy toward Syria under President-elect Donald Trump, the spread of the Gaza conflict into Lebanon, ongoing Israeli airstrikes on Syria, and a so-called “secret” agreement reportedly made between Russia and Syria to limit the activities of Hezbollah and Iranian forces within Syria. Russia, Türkiye, and Iran—the Astana peace process’s primary backers—are focusing on these concerns to prevent the situation from spiraling into an even more destructive regional war.
Lavrentiev highlighted the need for a cohesive strategy to curb the risk of the Gaza conflict spreading further into Syria. “Russia will do everything possible to contain the impact of this crisis on Syria,” he remarked, pointing out that regional escalation could jeopardize hard-won ceasefire agreements in northern Syria and disrupt humanitarian efforts. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov added that the talks are essential for setting clear priorities for Syria, emphasizing that “the situation cannot wait until next year; it demands urgent attention.”
The anticipated shift in U.S. foreign policy, with President-elect Donald Trump’s pledges to withdraw U.S. forces from Syria, remains a topic of high concern. Trump’s proposed actions could drastically alter the balance of power on the ground, potentially allowing Russian, Iranian, and Turkish forces to exert greater control. Lavrentiev stated that Russia’s focus will be on concrete proposals, rather than mere statements, to gauge the possible outcomes of a U.S. withdrawal. Such a move could alter the Syrian opposition’s influence and intensify the need for strengthened Syrian government control in the area.
Alongside the issues in Gaza, Israel’s regular airstrikes on Syrian targets have put Damascus on high alert. Israeli officials claim the strikes are aimed at curbing Iranian influence near Israel’s borders. The Syrian government, however, views these actions as violations of sovereignty and threats to its stability. Delegates will address the immediate need to prevent further escalation, especially as Lebanese Hezbollah—closely aligned with Iran—has hinted at a willingness to retaliate against Israeli aggression.
The Astana talks have traditionally included humanitarian issues, focusing on displaced persons, prisoner exchanges, and the identification of missing persons. Syria’s humanitarian crisis remains one of the most pressing issues. Over 6 million Syrian refugees remain in neighboring countries, with Türkiye hosting the largest number. A focus of these discussions will be the establishment of conditions to ensure safe and voluntary returns, a goal that depends heavily on stability in the region. Observers from Jordan and Lebanon, which also host substantial Syrian refugee populations, are particularly invested in the outcomes of these discussions.
While largely overshadowed by the political and military discussions, Syria’s economic reconstruction is an urgent issue. Decades of conflict have left infrastructure in ruins, impacting healthcare, education, and basic services. Economic sanctions and lack of funding have hindered Syria’s rebuilding efforts, and the discussions in Astana are expected to explore international support for reconstruction, particularly from allies like Russia and Iran. A stabilization of the security situation is crucial to drawing foreign investments and rebuilding Syria’s shattered economy.
One of the most controversial topics is the alleged agreement between Russia and Syria to limit the movement of Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed militias in Syria. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported this “secret” agreement as a measure to ease Israeli concerns and reduce the risk of direct confrontation. Lavrentiev declined to comment on the specifics of the agreement, though he reiterated that Russia is committed to reducing external influence in Syria while preserving its security. This measure, if true, could signify Russia’s attempt to balance its alliance with Iran and its interest in preventing further Israeli military incursions.
The 22nd round of the Astana talks has potential to make modest but important strides, although the challenges are significant. The fragmentation of Syrian opposition groups and their alignment with various foreign actors remains a hurdle in reaching a cohesive peace strategy. Despite the active participation of Türkiye, Iran, and Russia as ceasefire guarantors, the inclusion of observers from Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon reflects the broader concerns that Syria’s neighbors share regarding the ongoing instability.
The anticipated withdrawal of U.S. forces could significantly shift the dynamics in northeastern Syria. If Trump’s policies proceed as promised, it may open doors for Turkish forces to take a more active role in managing security along Syria’s northern border, potentially reducing the Kurdish-controlled areas. This scenario has implications for the Kurdish population, which has played a crucial role in combating ISIS but remains in a precarious position as regional actors vie for influence.
Addressing the humanitarian crisis remains a top priority. The UN estimates that over 13 million Syrians are still in need of humanitarian aid. Refugee return programs have been slow due to lingering violence, poor infrastructure, and a lack of trust in local governance. The return and reintegration of displaced Syrians are crucial for long-term stability, and the talks aim to establish frameworks for international aid, security guarantees, and necessary infrastructure.
While the reported deal to restrict Hezbollah’s movements may reduce tensions temporarily, the underlying issues remain unresolved. Israel’s insistence on preventing Iranian-backed forces from gaining ground near its borders suggests that Syria’s stability is intricately tied to regional rivalries. The Astana talks will likely need to consider mechanisms that allow Syria to assert sovereignty while addressing Israeli security concerns. Lavrentiev’s statement about containing the Gaza conflict’s spillover effect underscores Russia’s concern over broader destabilization.
