In November, South Korea announced its intention to scrap a security pact with North Korea, which halted military exercises along their common border. This move was in response to North Korea’s decision to launch a military reconnaissance satellite, violating UN Security Council resolutions banning the use of ballistic missile technology.
The war of words escalated further this month, with North Korea torn down an impressive monument symbolizing union with the South. Peacemaking initiatives have been unsuccessful, with both the Biden Administration and its partner, the Chinese government, seeming to be treading water.
President Barack Obama had told Trump that North Korea would be the most pressing issue on his agenda, and Trump arranged a meeting with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un in 2018. President Joe Biden has not attempted to address the issue.
The Americans have seemingly missed the boat, as North Korea has gone from zero nuclear weapons to an arsenal of at least 40 to 50. Experts believe North Korea has miniaturized a nuclear warhead that can be fitted into the cone of these rockets.
The Clinton Administration negotiated an “Agreed Framework” with North Korea, allowing the US to build nuclear light-water reactors for electricity production. North Korea was a major recipient of American economic aid in Asia, and Clinton sent Madeleine Albright to Pyongyang, where she was received with honors.
However, President Bill Clinton believed he was on the cusp of a deal before leaving office. At the end of his presidency, he was diverted by Arab/Israeli negotiations that seemed to bring peace to Palestine. Republicans in Congress continued to undermine the agreements with North Korea, sabotaging promises made by the US government. Clinton’s successor, George W. Bush, pushed Clinton’s good work aside.
The stand-off between the US and North Korea is precarious, with the US military knowing that North Korea would aim its conventionally armed rockets south and destroy Seoul. North Korea also knows that a majority of American public opinion would support a large-scale retaliatory nuclear attack if North Korea launched a nuclear-armed rocket towards the US.
Clinton’s successor, George W. Bush, dismissed Clinton’s efforts, despite the views of Colin Powell and the academic community. North Korea completed its nuclear bomb building work after Bush’s decision.
To create a new framework, the North needs to be “warmed up” with cultural, educational, and sporting exchanges, regular visits of US teams and orchestras, and building branch campuses of major US universities that teach human rights. This approach can help undermine the Soviet Union and create a more peaceful relationship with the North.
The US must agree to two key goals with Pyongyang: formally ending the Korean War and limiting American military exercises around the peninsula. Despite years of progress and retrenchment, informed optimism is crucial for a peaceful solution.
The US has identified the way to go, but it will only happen if Republicans are in a minority in both the House and Senate, as they could sabotage any president-led agreement. The US needs to focus on finding a peaceful solution, rather than blustering over the issue.
