Turkiye’s strategic landscape has undergone significant shifts, reflecting its evolving relations with global powers, particularly Russia and China. The nation’s disagreements with the US over Middle Eastern security issues, especially in Syria, combined with frustrations regarding its EU membership process and criticisms of the Western order, have led to a gradual alignment towards non-Western powers. While Russia holds a more substantial role in Turkish foreign policy, recent developments indicate that Turkiye is increasingly cultivating closer ties with China.

Turkiye’s Diplomatic Outreach to China

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan made a significant official visit to China, signaling a deepening of bilateral relations. During his visit, Fidan emphasized Turkiye’s pursuit of new opportunities for cooperation within platforms like BRICS. He announced his intention to attend the China-led BRICS foreign ministers meeting in Russia on June 10-11. This statement, made in Beijing, was positively received in Moscow, where a Kremlin spokesperson highlighted that Turkiye’s interest in the economic bloc would be a key topic at the upcoming summit.

BRICS, a bloc comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, recently expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE as full members. Ankara’s renewed interest in formally joining BRICS is not unprecedented but is particularly significant in the current geopolitical context.

Fidan’s visit followed China’s heightened involvement in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Traditionally maintaining a low profile compared to its major rival, the US, Beijing recently called for a Middle East peace conference. Fidan, engaged in diplomatic efforts on Gaza with counterparts from the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, stated that he would collaborate with China to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza. Additionally, Fidan extended an invitation from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for Chinese President Xi Jinping to visit Turkiye this year.

NATO Membership and Western Criticism

As a NATO member, Turkiye’s growing ties with Russia and China have attracted criticism from its Western allies. Ankara, however, maintains that its “axis” is not shifting away from the Western military alliance. Turkiye insists that it remains a committed member of NATO and continues to pursue full EU membership. Despite these assertions, the extent of Turkiye’s engagements with non-Western powers in political, economic, and security spheres has raised concerns in Western capitals, particularly since the Ukraine-Russia war’s onset.

This month, Turkiye reaffirmed its support for ongoing aid to Ukraine and efforts to secure its sovereignty. Nonetheless, it unequivocally stated that it would oppose any NATO involvement in the conflict with Russia. This stance highlights Ankara’s delicate balancing act between its commitments to NATO and its strategic relationships with Russia and China.

Strategic Shifts in Turkish Foreign Policy

Turkiye’s strategic alignment with Russia began to solidify in the post-Cold War period. However, it was firmly rooted within the Western alliance until the early 2000s. Disregard from both the EU and the US for Turkiye’s political and security concerns has catalyzed a noticeable shift in its foreign policy. Erdogan has skillfully navigated these frustrations, leveraging them to Turkiye’s advantage.

Ankara’s dual aspects of foreign policy — maintaining NATO alliance/EU membership while engaging with organizations opposed to the West — are viewed as complementary rather than conflicting. This approach aims to achieve strategic autonomy and flexibility, reviving Turkiye’s historical role as a bridge between East and West.

In September 2022, Erdogan hinted at the possibility of Turkiye joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a defense bloc led by China. Shortly after, he reaffirmed Turkiye’s integral role in NATO and Euro-Atlantic security in a speech at the UN General Assembly. This dual strategy underscores Turkiye’s efforts to balance between opposing blocs, leveraging its unique geopolitical position.

Economic and Strategic Implications of BRICS Membership

Fidan’s statements during his China visit echoed Erdogan’s broader strategy. “While we have a customs union with the EU, we also explore new opportunities for cooperation with several partners in different platforms, such as BRICS,” he said. Turkiye’s potential BRICS membership goes beyond economic aspirations, symbolizing a broader geopolitical shift.

Membership in BRICS would open new avenues for trade and investment, crucial for Turkiye’s economic diversification. Moreover, it would bolster Turkiye’s international stature and enhance its bargaining power with Western powers. The country’s energy cooperation with Russia and China, through projects like the TurkStream pipeline and the Belt and Road Initiative, exemplifies this multi-dimensional partnership.

A week before Fidan’s visit, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar was in China discussing a third nuclear power plant planned for northwestern Turkiye. Bayraktar announced that the two countries were close to finalizing a deal. Additionally, Turkiye seeks closer cooperation with Moscow and Beijing on regional issues, including the Syrian conflict and tensions in the South Caucasus.

Regional Dynamics and Global Implications

The US’s shrinking influence in the region has provided Russia and China with opportunities to strengthen their ties with Middle Eastern countries. While they cannot completely replace the US’s role, Beijing and Moscow offer regional states, including Turkiye, the chance to reduce their reliance on the US and diversify their diplomatic and economic partnerships.

Platforms like BRICS and the SCO are instrumental in this strategy, drawing regional states closer to Russia and China and further from US influence. For Turkiye, these relationships are not merely about countering Western influence but are part of a broader strategy to assert its autonomy and enhance its global standing.

Turkiye’s pivot towards Russia and China is a strategic recalibration influenced by multiple factors, including regional security dynamics, economic interests, and a desire for greater strategic autonomy. As Turkiye navigates its complex relationship with the West, its deepening ties with Russia and China signify a broader shift towards a more multipolar world order. This evolving axis, centered on mutual interests and strategic cooperation, underscores the growing importance of non-Western alliances in shaping the global geopolitical landscape.

Fidan’s recent visit to China and the discussions surrounding BRICS membership highlight Turkiye’s proactive approach in diversifying its foreign partnerships. This multifaceted strategy aims to maximize Turkiye’s influence and ensure its relevance in a rapidly changing world. As the global order continues to evolve, Turkiye’s ability to balance its Western commitments with its Eastern partnerships will be crucial in defining its future role on the international stage.