Armenia is set to withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russia-led military alliance, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed on Wednesday. The decision comes amid escalating tensions with Azerbaijan and allegations that members of the bloc were conspiring to incite a war against Armenia.

The CSTO, founded in 1992 as the Soviet Union was disintegrating, includes Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and until now, Armenia. The organization was designed as a mutual defense pact to ensure the security and sovereignty of its member states. However, recent events have revealed significant cracks in its foundation, particularly concerning Armenia’s security needs.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have a long history of conflict, primarily over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Following the Soviet Union’s collapse, the two countries fought two major wars over this enclave. The most recent conflict, in September, saw Azerbaijan reclaim Nagorno-Karabakh in a swift military campaign. This development has had profound repercussions for the region’s geopolitics and Armenia’s security calculus.

Prime Minister Pashinyan has accused the CSTO of failing to protect Armenia from Azerbaijani aggression. In a statement to the Armenian parliament, he announced that Armenia had “frozen” its participation in the CSTO and would leave the alliance when the time was right. “It turned out that members of the alliance are not fulfilling their contractual obligations but are planning a war with Azerbaijan against us,” he said, though he stopped short of naming specific countries within the bloc.

The presence of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh was supposed to be a stabilizing force following the 2020 conflict. However, their failure to prevent Azerbaijan’s latest offensive has led to widespread feelings of betrayal among Karabakh Armenians. Eyewitnesses described Russian peacekeepers as passive and ineffective during the crisis, forcing over 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee their homes.

In response to what he sees as Russia’s inability to fulfill its security commitments, Pashinyan has sought to strengthen ties with the United States and the European Union. This strategic pivot represents a significant shift in Armenia’s foreign policy, traditionally aligned with Moscow.

The decision to leave the CSTO and the handling of the Nagorno-Karabakh situation have sparked significant unrest within Armenia. Protests erupted in Yerevan, reminiscent of the mass demonstrations that brought Pashinyan to power in 2018. These protests, led by Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, have seen violent clashes with the police, resulting in over 100 injuries.

Despite these domestic challenges, Pashinyan remains committed to negotiating a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. In a recent statement, he expressed optimism about the progress made in talks, suggesting that a peace agreement could be signed within a month. This agreement, however, has not been universally welcomed in Armenia, where many view the concessions as capitulations to Azerbaijani demands.

A New Chapter for Armenia

Armenia’s decision to withdraw from the CSTO marks a significant turning point in its post-Soviet history. As it navigates its relationships with Azerbaijan, Russia, and Western powers, Armenia is entering a period of profound change. The implications of this decision will reverberate throughout the region, influencing geopolitical alignments and the future of the CSTO itself.

Armenia’s impending departure from the CSTO shines a light on the structural weaknesses of the alliance. Originally conceived as a bulwark against external threats, the CSTO has struggled to maintain cohesion among its members. Internal disagreements and conflicting national interests have often undermined the organization’s effectiveness.

Russia’s role in the CSTO has traditionally been that of a dominant leader, leveraging its military and economic power to influence the alliance’s direction. However, Moscow’s recent actions, particularly its deepening ties with Azerbaijan, have eroded trust within the bloc. Armenia’s accusations suggest a perception that Russia prioritizes its geopolitical interests over the security of its allies.

The collapse of the Soviet Union left a vacuum in the Caucasus, leading to a volatile mix of ethnic tensions, territorial disputes, and external influences. The CSTO was meant to bring stability to this region, but Armenia’s withdrawal could lead to further destabilization. Neighboring countries and international actors will be closely watching how this move affects the balance of power in the region.

The human cost of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been immense. The recent exodus of ethnic Armenians from the region underscores the enduring human suffering caused by territorial disputes. These displaced populations face significant challenges, including loss of homes, livelihoods, and cultural heritage. The international community has a role to play in addressing these humanitarian needs and supporting efforts towards a sustainable peace.

As Armenia redefines its strategic alliances, the role of the international community becomes increasingly crucial. The United States and the European Union, in particular, have opportunities to support Armenia’s transition and foster stability in the Caucasus. Diplomatic engagement, economic assistance, and support for democratic institutions can help Armenia navigate this complex geopolitical landscape.

Armenia’s decision to leave the CSTO marks a watershed moment in its contemporary history. The implications of this move are far-reaching, affecting not only Armenia’s security and foreign policy but also the broader dynamics of regional and international politics. As Armenia seeks to forge a new path, the coming months will be critical in determining its future trajectory.

To fully understand the implications of Armenia’s withdrawal from the CSTO, it is essential to examine the historical context of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This region, inhabited predominantly by ethnic Armenians, has been a flashpoint between Armenia and Azerbaijan for decades. The roots of the conflict can be traced back to the early 20th century, but it escalated significantly during the final years of the Soviet Union.

During the early 20th century, Nagorno-Karabakh was a contested region claimed by both Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Soviet Union attempted to address these disputes by establishing the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast within the Azerbaijan SSR in 1923. However, the ethnic and political tensions simmered beneath the surface, occasionally flaring up into violence.

The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 brought these tensions to the forefront. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan declared independence, and Nagorno-Karabakh, with its majority Armenian population, sought to secede from Azerbaijan and join Armenia. This led to a full-scale war from 1991 to 1994, resulting in significant casualties and displacement. The conflict ended with a ceasefire brokered by Russia, leaving Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas under Armenian control but internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan.

In 2020, the conflict reignited in a 44-day war that saw Azerbaijan make significant territorial gains. A Russia-brokered ceasefire ended the hostilities, with Russian peacekeepers deployed to the region. However, the peace was fragile, and the latest conflict in September 2023 saw Azerbaijan reclaim control over Nagorno-Karabakh. This swift military victory triggered a mass exodus of ethnic Armenians from the region, highlighting the ongoing instability and humanitarian crisis.

Armenia’s Domestic Challenges

Prime Minister Pashinyan’s handling of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been a source of intense domestic scrutiny and political unrest. Critics argue that his government has made excessive concessions to Azerbaijan, compromising Armenia’s territorial integrity and security. The protests in Yerevan reflect a broader dissatisfaction with the government’s policies and a fear that Armenia is being strategically weakened.

The Caucasus region, where Armenia and Azerbaijan are located, holds significant strategic importance due to its location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia. It is a critical corridor for energy resources, with pipelines transporting oil and gas from the Caspian Sea to global markets. Control over this region has been a key objective for regional powers and international actors alike.

Russia’s relationship with Armenia and Azerbaijan is complex, shaped by historical ties, economic interests, and strategic calculations. While Russia has traditionally been Armenia’s ally, it has also sought to maintain strong ties with Azerbaijan. This balancing act has become increasingly difficult as Azerbaijan’s strategic importance has grown, particularly in the context of energy exports and regional security.

The United States and the European Union have expressed interest in promoting stability and democracy in the Caucasus. However, their involvement has often been constrained by competing interests and regional complexities. Armenia’s pivot towards the West presents an opportunity for deeper engagement, but it also poses risks, including potential backlash from Russia.

Armenia’s decision to leave the CSTO raises questions about the future of the alliance. The CSTO has struggled to maintain cohesion and address the diverse security needs of its member states. Armenia’s departure could prompt other countries to reassess their commitments, potentially leading to a reevaluation of the organization’s role and effectiveness.

Armenia’s decision to withdraw from the CSTO is a significant moment in its modern history. This move reflects broader geopolitical shifts and the evolving security landscape in the Caucasus. As Armenia navigates these changes, its future will