In a significant political shift, Masoud Pezeshkian, a moderate politician, has emerged victorious in Iran’s presidential election. The election, held in a runoff format, saw Pezeshkian defeating the hardline former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili. This victory is a crucial moment in Iran’s political landscape, marked by promises of pragmatic foreign policy, efforts to revive the stalled 2015 nuclear deal, and a vision for social liberalization and political pluralism. However, challenges loom large, given the ultimate authority of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Iran’s theocratic system.

The presidential election was called following the tragic death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May. The runoff vote featured Pezeshkian, the sole moderate in the original field of four candidates, and Saeed Jalili, representing the hardline faction. The Guardian Council, a powerful body of 12 clerics and jurists, vetted all candidates, disqualifying 74 others, including several women, highlighting ongoing concerns about the Council’s influence and the broader implications for democratic processes in Iran.

Voter Turnout and Public Sentiment

Turnout in the runoff was nearly 50%, a significant increase from the historically low turnout of the first round, where over 60% of voters abstained. This reflects a critical moment of engagement from a disillusioned electorate, particularly the urban middle class and youth, who have been frustrated by years of security crackdowns and stifling of public dissent. Videos on social media captured scenes of celebration, with supporters dancing in the streets and honking car horns, signaling a wave of optimism and hope for change.

In his victory speech, Pezeshkian extended an olive branch to the Iranian people, emphasizing the need for cooperation, empathy, and trust. “Dear people of Iran, the election is over, and this is just the beginning of our working together. A difficult road is ahead. It can only be smooth with your cooperation, empathy and trust,” he said on social media platform X. His message highlighted the challenging road ahead, underscored by skepticism about his ability to fulfill campaign promises given the overarching power of Ayatollah Khamenei.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei congratulated Pezeshkian on his victory and urged him to continue the policies of the late President Raisi. Khamenei also addressed the low turnout, rejecting notions that it indicated a rejection of his rule. “There are reasons [behind the low turnout] and politicians and sociologists will examine them, but if anyone thinks that those who did not vote are against the establishment, they are plainly wrong,” he stated, acknowledging for the first time the presence of dissent within the populace.

Foreign Policy Implications

Pezeshkian’s election has sparked hopes for a thaw in Iran’s strained relations with the West, potentially creating openings to resolve the nuclear dispute that has been a focal point of international tension. The election comes amid escalating regional conflicts, notably between Israel and Iranian allies Hamas and Hezbollah, and increased Western pressure on Iran regarding its nuclear program.

Despite the optimistic outlook, Pezeshkian’s ability to enact significant changes is constrained by the dual system of clerical and republican rule in Iran. While he can influence the tone of policies, major shifts, particularly regarding the nuclear program and support for militant groups, remain under the purview of Khamenei. Nevertheless, Pezeshkian’s role will be pivotal in shaping the future leadership, as he will be closely involved in the selection of Khamenei’s successor.

Pezeshkian’s campaign was built on promises of social liberalization and political pluralism. He aims to address the grievances of a population weary of security crackdowns and restrictions on freedoms. His victory has been hailed by the reformist camp, led by former President Mohammad Khatami, who supports Pezeshkian’s pragmatic approach while maintaining allegiance to the theocratic framework.

Despite the hopeful rhetoric, many Iranians remain skeptical about the potential for meaningful change. Years of civil unrest, particularly the anti-regime protests in 2022-2023, have fostered deep mistrust towards the establishment. The viral Persian hashtag “traitorous minority” on social media, which urged boycotting the election, underscores the profound divide and the challenge Pezeshkian faces in unifying the nation.

International Reactions

Pezeshkian’s victory has garnered international attention, with leaders from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other nations extending their congratulations. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Arabia’s King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman were among those who sent messages, indicating a keen interest in the direction of Iran’s new administration and its implications for regional and global politics.

Pezeshkian’s presidency will be a delicate balancing act between advocating for pragmatic policies and navigating the rigid structures of Iran’s theocratic system. His ability to negotiate and find common ground with hardliners and reformists alike will be crucial in determining the success of his administration.

While major policy shifts on the nuclear program and regional interventions may be unlikely, Pezeshkian’s influence could steer Iran towards more constructive engagement with the international community. Easing tensions and fostering dialogue, particularly with Western powers, could lead to incremental but meaningful changes.

Domestically, Pezeshkian’s focus on social and economic reforms will be pivotal in addressing the needs of the urban middle class and youth. Economic challenges, exacerbated by sanctions and internal mismanagement, require urgent attention. Promoting job creation, improving living standards, and expanding social freedoms will be critical areas where Pezeshkian’s administration will be judged.

Masoud Pezeshkian’s victory in Iran’s presidential election marks a significant moment in the country’s political landscape. His moderate stance and promises of pragmatic policies offer a glimmer of hope for a nation grappling with internal and external challenges. However, the road ahead is fraught with obstacles, and his ability to navigate the complex dynamics of Iran’s theocratic system will determine the extent of his success. As Iran stands at a crossroads, the international community watches closely, hoping for positive developments that could lead to a more stable and prosperous future for the Iranian people.