In a move signaling a potential thaw in the long-standing delicate relationship between China and Japan, both nations have embarked on a series of high-level exchanges. Senior Japanese officials and parliamentarians have been visiting China frequently, marking an uptick in diplomatic engagement. However, the warming of bilateral relations faces significant challenges due to Japan’s political shift to the right and its increasing alignment with the United States in efforts to contain China’s influence.

On Tuesday, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi met with Hiroshi Moriyama, chief of the general council of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), in Beijing. The meeting focused on enhancing communication, understanding, and cooperation between the two nations. According to Xinhua News Agency, Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, articulated China’s concerns about the ocean discharge of contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear plant and emphasized the importance of handling the Taiwan question cautiously. Wang reiterated that the Taiwan Straits should not be treated as a “political theater” and urged Japan to adhere to the spirit of the four political documents that form the foundation of China-Japan relations.

A day prior, Zhao Leji, chairman of the National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee, held talks with Banri Kaieda, vice speaker of Japan’s House of Representatives. Zhao emphasized the NPC’s willingness to maintain and strengthen friendly exchanges with the Japanese Parliament across all legislative levels.

In a further demonstration of deepening bilateral ties, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu engaged in a China-Japan Strategic Dialogue with his Japanese counterpart and met with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa. The discussions, which included a candid exchange on major strategic issues, underscored both countries’ commitment to fostering China-Japan relations in alignment with the new era’s requirements.

From July 17 to 19, Japanese Minister of Health, Labor and Welfare Keizo Takemi visited China and met with officials from China’s National Health Commission. The meeting resulted in an agreement to deepen exchanges between the health departments of both countries, highlighting a potential area of fruitful cooperation.

Japan’s Approach

Chinese analysts view the recent spate of high-level meetings as an opportunity to restore and promote cooperation across various fields. Strengthening economic ties between China and Japan could yield significant benefits for both nations and the broader Asia-Pacific region. Lü Chao, an expert on the Korean Peninsula at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times that increased economic cooperation could bolster mutual interests.

However, Lü cautioned that it is essential to “listen to their words and observe their actions” when dealing with Japan. Despite the recent diplomatic overtures, Japan has exhibited a hostile attitude towards China, marked by an increased emphasis on defense and security concerns.

Recently, the Japanese government approved the 2024 edition of the Defense White Paper, asserting that Japan is facing its “most severe and complex security environment since the end of World War II.” The document continues to propagate the “China threat” rhetoric, particularly concerning the Taiwan Straits situation. Additionally, Japan has significantly ramped up its military activities in the Asia-Pacific region, frequently conducting joint exercises with the United States and South Korea.

Political Motivations Behind Diplomatic Efforts

Da Zhigang, director of the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies at Heilongjiang Provincial Academy of Social Sciences, suggested that the recent diplomatic engagements might be partially motivated by the upcoming LDP presidential election in September. The uncertain outcome of the US presidential election adds to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s challenges, with his Cabinet’s approval ratings remaining low. Improved China-Japan relations could potentially bolster Kishida’s support in the election.

Another objective for Japanese officials visiting China is to seek flexibility in their bilateral relations. According to Da, Japan aims for “limited improvement” in relations with China, balancing the need for diplomatic engagement with its strategic alignment with the US. Despite Japan’s intentions, whether symbolic or exploratory, signals of improving bilateral relations are viewed positively.

Analysts warn that the fundamental tone of Japan and the US suppressing China and continuing to marginalize and demonize the nation is unlikely to change. The strategic alignment between Japan and the US remains a significant factor influencing Japan’s foreign policy towards China. While the recent diplomatic engagements offer a glimpse of potential improvement in bilateral relations, underlying tensions and strategic differences persist.

The future of China-Japan relations will likely continue to be characterized by a complex interplay of diplomatic engagements and strategic rivalries. Both nations stand to gain from improved economic and diplomatic ties, yet the broader geopolitical context and internal political dynamics in Japan pose significant challenges. Observers will keenly watch the developments in the coming months, particularly in light of the upcoming LDP presidential election and the evolving security landscape in the Asia-Pacific region.

The recent rounds of frequent exchanges between Beijing and Tokyo reflect a cautious yet hopeful approach towards mending the delicate relationship between China and Japan. While high-level meetings and diplomatic dialogues signal a willingness to improve ties, the underlying strategic and political challenges remain significant. The dual approach of diplomatic engagement and strategic rivalry will likely continue to shape the dynamics of China-Japan relations, necessitating careful navigation to foster mutual understanding and cooperation.