Thailand’s decision to upgrade its air defense capabilities with the acquisition of advanced Saab Gripen E/F fighter jets marks a significant step in its military modernization. This move comes against the backdrop of the ongoing Myanmar civil war and the escalating competition for influence in Southeast Asia between the United States and China. The Royal Thai Air Force (RTAF) is poised to replace its aging fleet of Gripen C/D models with these advanced fighters, indicating a substantial enhancement in its defensive posture.
In a report by The War Zone, it was revealed that the RTAF plans to procure 12-14 Gripen E/F fighters, with deliveries scheduled to begin in 2028. This procurement follows a thorough 10-month evaluation process and awaits the approval of Thailand’s new government led by Paetongtarn Shinawatra. The acquisition of these advanced jets will mark a notable upgrade from the current operational fleet, enhancing Thailand’s aerial combat capabilities.
The War Zone also notes that the Gripen E/F has faced challenges in international fighter competitions, often overshadowed by competitors like the US-made F-35 and F-16s. Currently, the RTAF operates 11 upgraded Gripen C/D models, alongside a larger fleet of older US-made F-16s and F-5 Tiger II jets. The introduction of the Gripen E/F fighters is expected to initially replace the oldest F-16s, with future plans to phase out the F-5s.
Thailand’s move to upgrade its air force is aligned with its broader military modernization efforts and is driven by regional security concerns. The ongoing civil war in Myanmar and the increasing influence competition between the US and China underscore the need for enhanced air defense capabilities. The acquisition of Gripen E/F fighters is a strategic move to address these challenges and ensure Thailand’s airspace sovereignty.
According to Thailand’s 2020-2037 Air Force Strategy, the decision to acquire Gripen E/F jets is part of a broader plan to enhance its air defense capabilities. The strategy emphasizes the need to address evolving aerial threats, including the rising use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and potential regional conflicts, such as those spilling over from Myanmar. This strategic plan highlights the importance of modernizing the air force to respond to both conventional and asymmetric threats.
The Gripen E/F fighters are expected to perform a range of roles, including air superiority, ground attack, and reconnaissance. This versatility makes them well-suited to respond to a variety of threats. The advanced capabilities of these jets, such as improved radar systems, enhanced electronic warfare features, and superior maneuverability, provide the RTAF with a robust tool to maintain airspace security and support ground operations.
However, the acquisition of Gripen E/F jets presents significant financial and operational challenges. The costs associated with purchasing, operating, and maintaining these advanced fighters are substantial. Thailand must ensure that it has the necessary budget and logistical support to integrate these jets into its existing air force infrastructure effectively. These challenges underscore the need for careful planning and resource allocation.
The civil war in Myanmar poses a direct threat to Thailand’s security, particularly given the Myanmar junta’s use of airpower to target opposition forces. Myanmar has been modernizing its air force with assistance from China and Russia, acquiring advanced jets like the Sukhoi SU-30 and FTC-2000G. These developments increase the risk of air incursions into Thai territory, highlighting the need for a capable air defense system.
The Myanmar Air Force (MAF) has ramped up its operational capabilities, conducting daily sorties against opposition forces. The MAF’s acquisition of new jets and the experience gained by its pilots have improved its operational flexibility and targeting accuracy. This increased capability poses a potential threat to Thailand’s airspace, necessitating a strong defensive response.
Despite the threat posed by Myanmar, Thailand’s response to airspace incursions has been restrained. This restraint is influenced by political considerations, as maintaining stable relations with Myanmar is seen as crucial for regional stability. Past incidents, such as the June 2022 breach of Thai airspace by a Myanmar MiG-29, were downplayed by Thai leadership, reflecting the delicate balance Thailand seeks to maintain.
Research by Kridsana Chotisut and colleagues in the Asian Journal of Comparative Politics highlights Thailand’s calculated response to Myanmar’s airspace violations. The Thai government’s muted reaction is thought to be influenced by its political and economic ties with Myanmar’s military and ethnic armed groups. This approach aims to avoid escalating tensions while protecting broader national interests.
Beyond addressing regional threats, Thailand’s acquisition of Gripen E/F jets reflects its broader defense strategy. This strategy involves maintaining a balance between the US and China, both of which vie for influence in Southeast Asia. By modernizing its military, Thailand aims to enhance its sovereignty and avoid over-reliance on any single power, thus ensuring strategic autonomy.
Paul Chambers, in a 2024 Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs article, discusses Thailand’s nuanced defense diplomacy. Thailand participates in joint military exercises with both the US (e.g., Cobra Gold) and China (e.g., Blue-Strike and Falcon Strike), reflecting its hedging strategy. This balanced approach allows Thailand to benefit from partnerships with both major powers while maintaining its strategic independence.
Historically, Thailand has sourced much of its military equipment from the US. However, following the 2014 coup in Thailand, US-Thai relations cooled, leading to a reduction in US military support. China stepped in to fill this gap, supplying Thailand with a range of military hardware. Despite this, Thailand continues to engage closely with the US, reflecting its commitment to a balanced foreign policy.
Thailand’s acquisition of Saab Gripen E/F jets is a crucial component of its military modernization efforts. This move not only addresses immediate regional security threats but also supports Thailand’s broader strategy of maintaining a balanced relationship between the US and China. By enhancing its military capabilities, Thailand aims to safeguard its sovereignty and assert its influence in an increasingly competitive Indo-Pacific region. This strategic balance is essential for Thailand as it navigates the complexities of regional politics and security challenges.
