As Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine nears its third winter, the conflict shows no signs of abating. What Moscow once hoped would be a quick military victory has turned into a protracted quagmire, costing Russia hundreds of thousands of soldiers, thousands of tanks, and a significant portion of its naval forces. This grim reality raises serious questions: Was Russia’s intelligence preparation of the battlefield (IPB) grossly flawed? Or did Kremlin generals succumb to political pressure from President Vladimir Putin, hastily launching an ill-advised invasion with little real military strategy?

The latest twist in this war came during the summer of 2023, when Ukraine mounted a surprise incursion into Russian territory. For the first time since World War II, a foreign power has seized control of part of Russia. On August 6, Ukrainian forces, numbering thousands of troops and hundreds of armored vehicles, launched an unexpected raid into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian forces have now captured more than 100 settlements, controlling a significant portion of Russian territory. Russian forces are mounting counteroffensive operations, but open-source intelligence suggests that Ukraine has the manpower, engineering capabilities, and logistical support to maintain its hold.

This unprecedented development raises fundamental questions about the trajectory of the war and its potential conclusion. As Georgian Legion Commander Mamuka Mamulashvili, a key ally of Ukraine, has stated: “The fight for Ukraine will end on the territory of Russia.” If Ukraine’s operation in Kursk succeeds, it could profoundly reshape the course of the conflict.

Kursk Offensive: Strategic Importance

Ukraine’s decision to target Kursk Oblast was not coincidental. This region holds significant historical, strategic, and logistical value for both countries. There are five key reasons why Kursk matters in the context of the war.

Historical Ties to Ukraine Kursk has deep cultural and historical ties to Ukraine, which resonate strongly with the Ukrainian public. In the 17th and 18th centuries, Ukrainian settlers were granted land in the region by the Russian tsar. This area, known as Sloboda Ukraine, had unique autonomy, and the cultural identity formed during this period still exists today. While precise demographic data is unavailable, it is believed that tens of thousands of ethnic Ukrainians still live in the Kursk region. The front lines in the current conflict closely resemble the border between the Ukrainian People’s Republic and Bolshevik Russia in 1918, further underscoring the historical importance of Kursk.

Crucial Transport Links Kursk is a critical hub for Russia’s military logistics. Major highways and railway lines traverse the region, transporting troops and supplies from Russia and Belarus to the front lines in Ukraine. The Kursk railway hub connects central Russia to the southwestern regions near Ukraine. Ukrainian control of these key transport links would significantly disrupt Russia’s ability to sustain its military operations.

Sudzha Gas Terminal Kursk is home to the Sudzha gas terminal, which plays a pivotal role in the flow of Russian gas to Europe. Approximately 14 to 15 billion cubic meters of gas pass through Ukraine annually, destined for countries like Slovakia, Austria, and Hungary. Ukrainian control of the Sudzha terminal would give Kyiv leverage in future negotiations with Moscow and could have broader implications for Europe’s energy security.

Kursk Nuclear Power Plant Located just 30 miles from Ukrainian forces, the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant could become a critical bargaining chip in the war. Ukraine could use its proximity to the plant to pressure Russia into relinquishing control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which Russian forces currently hold. Although Russia has fortified the area around the Kursk plant, its proximity to the front lines remains a potential vulnerability.

Favorable Terrain for Ukraine’s Military Strategy The topography of the Kursk region is well-suited to the type of warfare that Ukraine is currently conducting. The flat, open terrain allows for rapid advances by armored vehicles and tanks. Kursk was also the site of the largest tank battle in history during World War II, making it symbolically significant for a conflict dominated by heavy armor engagements.

Why Now? The Timing of Ukraine’s Kursk Operation

Ukraine’s military offensive into Kursk was carefully timed, taking advantage of several key factors.

Arrival of American Military Aid The Kursk operation commenced roughly four months after Congress passed a significant aid package for Ukraine. The delay allowed Ukrainian forces to receive and deploy advanced equipment, weapons, and munitions, which were crucial for the success of the operation.

Weather Conditions August offered optimal weather for military operations before the arrival of the fall rains, known as the bezdorizhzhia or “roadlessness,” which could have bogged down any Russian counteroffensive. Ukraine launched its highly successful Kherson counteroffensive during the same time of year in 2022, leveraging similar weather patterns.

Anniversary of Russia’s 2008 Invasion of Georgia Though likely a secondary consideration, the timing of Ukraine’s operation coincided with the anniversary of Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia. Pro-Ukraine social media campaigns highlighted Georgian volunteers fighting alongside Ukrainians in Kursk, underscoring the historical connection between the two conflicts.

Situation on the Ground: Ukraine’s Bold Advance

Ukraine’s Armed Forces (UAF) have made remarkable progress in Kursk, capturing over 100 settlements and pushing roughly 21 miles into Russian territory. This incursion highlights Kyiv’s growing military capabilities and strategic planning. The UAF has deployed mechanized and air-assault brigades, supported by specialized combat units like the 130th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion and the 14th Regiment of the Unmanned Systems Command, which is conducting drone warfare in the region.

Ukrainian forces have also captured a significant number of Russian prisoners of war (POWs), thanks in part to the surprise element of the operation and Russia’s use of poorly trained and undisciplined units in the region. Moscow has since responded by deploying elite units, including naval infantry and Russian Airborne Forces (VDV), marking the start of a major counteroffensive. Although Russia has made some tactical gains, the scale of its response suggests that the Kremlin views the situation as politically precarious.

Ukraine’s Air Force has played a crucial role in the campaign, conducting relentless attacks on Russian forces using MiG-29 fighters armed with Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs). These strikes have disrupted Russian supply lines, including the destruction of key bridges along the Seym River, which has crippled Russian logistics.

In addition to military efforts, Ukraine is waging a political warfare campaign aimed at winning the hearts and minds of local populations in Kursk. Ukrainian soldiers have shared videos of friendly interactions with residents in the occupied areas, reinforcing the perception that Ukraine intends to hold the territory for the long term. On the diplomatic front, Kyiv has appealed to international organizations like the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross to provide humanitarian assistance to Ukrainian-controlled areas in Russia, further signaling its intent to retain control over Kursk.

Ukraine’s Goals in Kursk

Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk serves several strategic purposes:

• Shifting the War’s Narrative: By seizing Russian territory, Ukraine has flipped the war’s narrative. For months, the conflict was perceived as a stalemate, with Russia making incremental gains in Donetsk. Now, Kyiv appears to have the upper hand.
• Diverting Russian Resources: Ukraine aims to force Russia to divert manpower and military resources to defend its territory. Even the loss of a relatively small area—500 square miles—creates political problems for Putin.
• Creating a Buffer Zone: Pushing the front lines into Kursk creates a buffer around Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast, which has been the target of thousands of Russian air, missile, and artillery strikes. By moving the front further into Russian territory, Ukraine reduces the threat to Sumy.
• Preventing a Frozen Conflict: By controlling Russian territory, Ukraine reduces the likelihood of a frozen conflict. If Kyiv can maintain its foothold, it will have a stronger negotiating position in any future peace talks.

Initial Lessons from Kursk

Though the operation is still in its early stages, several key lessons can be drawn from Ukraine’s Kursk incursion:

• Russia’s Red Lines Are Unsubstantiated: Despite repeated threats of nuclear war or “catastrophic consequences,” Russia has failed to follow through on its so-called red lines. Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk is the latest example of these empty threats.
• The Unexpected Happens in War: The history of warfare is filled with surprises, and Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk is a reminder that military planners need to prepare for the unexpected.
• Morale and Discipline Matter: Ukrainian forces have maintained high morale and discipline, enabling them to execute a surprise attack in an age of open-source intelligence and social media.
• Russia’s Government is Disjointed: Russia’s response to the Kursk operation has been slow and poorly coordinated, highlighting weaknesses in its government’s ability to respond to crises.
• Russia’s Vulnerabilities Are Growing: The Kursk invasion and the earlier Wagner rebellion demonstrate that Putin’s regime is facing mounting challenges at home.

Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk has shifted the war’s dynamics, offering Kyiv a stronger hand in future negotiations. However, for this strategy to succeed, Ukraine will need continued support from the West. The U.S. and its allies should take several steps to ensure Ukraine’s success, including publicly supporting Kyiv’s actions, removing restrictions on the use of Western-supplied weapons, providing real-time intelligence, and expediting the delivery of military aid. As the conflict enters its third winter, the war is far from over. But Ukraine’s audacious operation in Kursk shows that the tides of war can change swiftly—and unpredictably.