India has risen to become the third most powerful country in Asia, surpassing both Russia and Japan in the latest edition of the Asia Power Index, an annual report by the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank. This marks a significant shift in the power dynamics of the region, which continues to be dominated by the United States and China. As Japan’s economic influence diminishes and China’s growth plateaus, India’s slow yet steady ascent on the global stage signals an emerging era in Asia’s geopolitical landscape.
The Asia Power Index is an analytical tool that measures the relative power of 27 countries and territories across the region. It spans from Pakistan in the west to Russia in the north and reaches as far into the Pacific as Australia, New Zealand, and the United States. By evaluating resources and how countries leverage them, the Index offers a detailed picture of the shifting power balance in Asia.
The 2024 edition of the Index—based on six years of data—provides the most comprehensive assessment yet of these shifts. It highlights that while the U.S. remains the dominant power in Asia, China is closing the gap, particularly in military strength. However, the standout finding is India’s climb to third place, overtaking Japan for the first time in the Index’s history.
India’s Rise: A Slow but Steady Climb
India’s growing power and influence in Asia come as no surprise, yet the gap between its potential and actual influence remains significant. Despite India’s remarkable ascent to the third rank in Asia, the Lowy Institute’s report suggests that the country’s clout remains well below what its vast resources promise.
“India is rising although a tad bit slowly. India has overtaken Japan to become the third-ranked power in Asia, but its clout remains below the potential promised by its resources,” the survey notes. This gap reflects India’s limited ability to project power beyond South Asia and its constrained influence east of the Malacca Strait, a vital maritime chokepoint.
The Asia Power Index assesses countries based on a variety of factors, including economic capability, military strength, diplomatic influence, and cultural impact. While India performs strongly across many indicators, its geopolitical reach remains largely regional, with limited direct influence on the broader Indo-Pacific.
The report emphasizes that India’s resources, including its growing economy, military modernization, and diplomatic engagements, provide it with ample potential for further growth. However, challenges remain, such as inadequate infrastructure, a slow bureaucratic system, and regional security concerns, particularly with neighboring Pakistan and China.
Japan’s Decline: Economic Malaise and Changing Identity
Japan, once a dominant force in Asia’s economic and technological landscape, has seen its influence wane in recent years. The 2024 Asia Power Index underscores that Tokyo’s economic clout has been steadily eroded by rising competition from neighboring South Korea, China, and Taiwan. These nations have made significant advancements in areas that Japan once dominated, including advanced manufacturing, electronics, and technology sectors.
As a result, Japan has slipped to fourth place in the Index, despite gaining ground in other areas. The report highlights that Tokyo is undergoing a transformation in its identity, shifting from an economic powerhouse to a more active player in the defense and security arenas.
Japan has increasingly aligned itself with the United States and other regional partners, notably through initiatives like the Reciprocal Access Agreement with the Philippines. Tokyo’s willingness to take on a greater security role in the region has enhanced its standing in terms of defense, but it has not been enough to counterbalance its economic decline.
The report acknowledges Japan’s efforts to assert itself as a regional security provider, a significant shift from its post-World War II pacifist stance. Yet, with its aging population and sluggish economic growth, Tokyo’s ability to compete with China and the United States in terms of comprehensive power has been compromised.
U.S.-China Rivalry: Dominance and Challenges
The geopolitical landscape of Asia remains largely bipolar, dominated by the rivalry between the United States and China. The 2024 Asia Power Index makes it clear that these two superpowers are locked in a long-term competition, with both nations continuing to outpace the rest of Asia by a considerable margin.
The United States maintains a lead over China in six out of the eight parameters used in the Index, which include diplomatic influence, defense networks, and cultural power. However, China’s persistent advancements in military capability have narrowed the gap between the two powers. The report notes that China has closed more than a quarter of the lead the U.S. had in military strength back in 2018.
While China has made notable military gains, especially in terms of its ability to project power in the region, its overall growth is slowing. The report finds that China’s influence is plateauing, meaning that while it remains a formidable power in Asia, its rapid expansion has leveled off. China’s economic capability has flatlined due to slower economic growth and structural challenges, including demographic issues and rising debt levels.
The report underscores that China’s power is neither surging nor collapsing. Instead, Beijing has reached a “settling point,” where its comprehensive power is below that of the United States but still significantly ahead of any other nation in Asia. China’s influence in Asia remains largely regional, with its strategic focus increasingly concentrated on the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.
China’s growing military capability, particularly its ability to sustain long-term conflict, poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests in Asia. For the first time, the survey notes, experts believe that China could deploy forces rapidly and maintain them for an extended period in the event of a conflict in Asia. This finding is particularly relevant given the rising tensions over Taiwan, a self-ruled island that Beijing views as a breakaway province.
China’s Plateau: Neither Surging Nor Collapsing
One of the key takeaways from the 2024 Asia Power Index is that China’s power, after years of dramatic growth, has begun to plateau. The report dispels two competing narratives: one that suggests China will eclipse the United States as the dominant power in Asia, and another that predicts China’s decline due to internal challenges. Instead, the reality lies somewhere in between.
China’s economic power, while still commanding, is no longer expanding at the same pace. Slower growth and deep-rooted structural issues, such as its aging workforce and overreliance on state-driven investments, have tempered Beijing’s ability to maintain its trajectory. However, its military and diplomatic influence remains strong, particularly in East Asia, where Beijing continues to assert itself in territorial disputes and expand its defense networks.
The report points out that while China’s military capability has increased, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) still struggles to project power beyond its immediate borders. The PLA’s deficiencies in overseas operations and power projection are highlighted as key limitations in China’s ability to compete with the United States on a global scale.
China’s continued assertiveness in the South China Sea and its increased military pressure on Taiwan have raised concerns about regional stability. However, the Index suggests that Beijing’s strategic objectives, such as maintaining control over Taiwan and asserting dominance in East Asia, do not necessarily require it to surpass the United States in military capability.
The 2024 Asia Power Index provides a clear picture of the shifting power dynamics in Asia. The U.S. remains the dominant force, but China is closing the gap, particularly in military capability. Meanwhile, India’s rise to the third spot underscores its growing influence, though the gap between its potential and actual power remains significant. Japan’s decline, primarily driven by economic factors, highlights the challenges Tokyo faces in maintaining its comprehensive power in the face of rising competition from other Asian nations.
As the global power balance continues to evolve, Asia will remain at the center of geopolitical competition. The U.S. and China are set for a prolonged contest for supremacy, while other nations like India and Japan will play crucial roles in shaping the region’s future. The 2024 Asia Power Index serves as a vital tool in understanding these complexities and the evolving nature of power in the world’s most dynamic region.
