Hezbollah, Lebanon’s most prominent militant group, has faced a series of crushing setbacks over the past year, undermining its leadership, military capabilities, and long-term viability. Despite the organization’s attempts to spin its losses as part of a historical struggle, the depth of the crisis it is currently undergoing is becoming difficult to ignore. Hezbollah’s leadership and its supporters console themselves with the notion that “we have been sacrificing martyrs for 40 years,” but the recent escalation of Israeli strikes, communications breaches, and targeted assassinations is testing the limits of this narrative.
For decades, Hezbollah has thrived on a two-pronged propaganda approach. On one hand, it glorifies fallen leaders and martyrs, portraying them as legendary figures who inspire future generations. On the other, it downplays the significance of their loss, asserting that their deaths do not impede the organization’s goals or capabilities. However, this narrative is proving insufficient to sustain morale or mobilize support, especially as Hezbollah confronts what is arguably the most difficult period since its inception in 1982.
The Collapse of Communications: A Severe Breach
One of the most debilitating blows Hezbollah has endured is the penetration of its once secure communication networks. Effective communication is a pillar of any military organization, and Hezbollah’s ability to coordinate its actions has always been crucial to its success. But this pillar has been systematically dismantled by Israel over the past year.
Initially, Israel’s ability to penetrate Hezbollah’s mobile phone networks led to the assassination of key field commanders. Among the most notable losses was Fuad Shukr, one of Hezbollah’s top military strategists. As the conflict escalated, it became clear that Israel had also infiltrated Hezbollah’s private landline network— the very network that Hezbollah fought a mini-civil war in 2008 to maintain. This was a watershed moment, as the landline system was believed to be impenetrable, marking a new level of vulnerability for the group.
The most consequential communication breach occurred when Israel tricked Hezbollah into purchasing thousands of booby-trapped pagers. These devices detonated within minutes of use, critically injuring operatives and officials. The explosion of these pagers provided Israel with a unique opportunity to track down high-profile figures, such as Ibrahim Aqil, the commander of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Unit. Aqil, who had been injured in one such blast, was located through hacked surveillance footage of the hospital where he received treatment. Just 24 hours later, he was assassinated in a targeted airstrike on a building in Hezbollah’s southern Beirut stronghold, Dahyieh.
The collapse of Hezbollah’s communication infrastructure has profoundly impaired its ability to wage any sort of direct conflict with Israel. Communication breakdowns mean that orders are delayed, miscommunicated, or intercepted by the enemy, effectively halting the organization’s command and control operations. In August 2023, Israel launched a strike on a meeting of Hezbollah leaders in Dahyieh, demonstrating that the group’s operational efficiency had disintegrated. The assault not only crippled the party’s strategic decision-making but also sent a clear signal: Hezbollah’s communications were thoroughly compromised.
Preemptive Strikes on Military Infrastructure
In addition to communication failures, Hezbollah’s military infrastructure has taken significant hits from Israeli preemptive strikes. By the summer of 2023, it became clear that Israel had the upper hand, launching a series of devastating airstrikes targeting Hezbollah’s stockpiles of rockets, drones, and fortified positions. On August 25th, nearly 100 Israeli fighter jets obliterated Hezbollah rocket launchers across southern Lebanon, disrupting the group’s ability to retaliate for the assassination of Fuad Shukr.
This preemptive strike exposed the weakened state of Hezbollah’s military capacity. Despite Hezbollah’s ability to launch a few rockets in the aftermath, the initiative had been firmly wrested from the organization’s hands. While Hezbollah had historically prided itself on its capacity to strike at Israel with precision and ferocity, its ability to do so has been crippled by Israel’s continued strikes on its military infrastructure.
Moreover, Israel has reportedly targeted Hezbollah’s missile and drone manufacturing plants, further curtailing its ability to pose a strategic threat. What was once Hezbollah’s greatest deterrent against Israel—the threat of a massive missile barrage—has been severely undermined. With the destruction of critical launch sites, Hezbollah’s ability to conduct sustained retaliatory operations is increasingly in question. The strikes not only neutralized Hezbollah’s immediate retaliatory capabilities but also weakened its long-term ability to rebuild its military strength.
Systematic Assassination of Leaders and Operatives
Hezbollah’s leadership has been systematically targeted in Israeli operations over the past year, and this has arguably been the most painful blow of all. Israel’s methodical assassination campaign has devastated Hezbollah’s chain of command, leaving the organization with a leadership vacuum that is unlikely to be filled any time soon.
The assassination of Fuad Shukr was only the beginning. Israel has since killed dozens of high-ranking Hezbollah figures, including field commanders, intelligence officers, and operatives overseeing key areas such as cyber warfare and drone coordination. The most significant of these operations occurred in mid-September when Israel released a detailed diagram showing Hezbollah’s military hierarchy—illustrating that six out of nine top commanders had been eliminated.
These assassinations have crippled Hezbollah’s ability to function on both a strategic and operational level. In an organization where trust and experience are paramount, the rapid elimination of veteran commanders has created a strategic vacuum that will take years to fill. Hezbollah has lost figures with decades of experience in guerrilla warfare, military tactics, and regional strategy, and these losses cannot be quickly replaced with fresh recruits.
Beyond the operational impact, the assassinations have also dealt a heavy blow to Hezbollah’s morale. The organization’s recruitment and training have relied on the idea that its leaders are untouchable legends, guiding the movement toward victory. The consistent elimination of these leaders has shattered this image, causing internal disillusionment and questioning among Hezbollah’s rank and file. This loss of morale is a dangerous development for a movement that thrives on ideological commitment and personal loyalty to its leaders.
A Movement in Crisis
The culmination of these losses—communication breakdowns, military infrastructure destruction, and leadership decapitation—has plunged Hezbollah into an existential crisis. The group that once boasted unparalleled influence in Lebanon and was seen as a pivotal player in the broader Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape is now on the defensive, reeling from a series of coordinated blows that have left its future uncertain.
Internally, Hezbollah is struggling to maintain cohesion and support. Its traditional supporters in Lebanon are beginning to question its ability to defend the country and protect its Shiite community. The narrative of eternal martyrdom—one that sustained the movement through decades of conflict with Israel—is increasingly falling flat in the face of unrelenting Israeli strikes and the loss of Hezbollah’s iconic leaders.
Externally, Hezbollah’s standing among its regional allies—particularly Iran and Syria—is being called into question. While Iran remains Hezbollah’s primary sponsor, providing funding, weapons, and training, the question now is whether Tehran will continue to support a movement that is seemingly in terminal decline. Hezbollah’s inability to strike back at Israel in any meaningful way undermines its value to Iran’s broader regional strategy, which hinges on maintaining proxies capable of harassing Israel and projecting power across the Middle East.
Hezbollah’s troubles also extend to its standing in Lebanon’s complex political landscape. Once seen as the defender of Lebanese sovereignty and resistance against Israel, Hezbollah now faces accusations of dragging the country into unnecessary conflict. The economic collapse Lebanon has experienced since 2019 has only added fuel to these accusations, as many Lebanese see Hezbollah’s military priorities as being out of step with the country’s urgent need for economic and political reform.
A Turning Point for Hezbollah?
The blows Hezbollah has received over the past year may prove to be the most consequential in its 40-year history. The organization is not just facing a military defeat, but a strategic and ideological crisis that calls into question its very future. With its communication networks compromised, its military infrastructure crippled, and its leadership gutted by Israeli assassinations, Hezbollah is no longer the invincible force it once appeared to be.
The coming months will be critical for Hezbollah as it attempts to regroup and redefine its role in Lebanon and the wider region. Whether it can recover from these losses and restore its position as a leading force in the Middle East remains to be seen. What is certain, however, is that Hezbollah is at a crossroads, and the decisions it makes in the near future will shape the future of the organization—and Lebanon—for years to come.
