China is set to showcase its expanding military capabilities by unveiling new warplanes at its highly anticipated annual Zhuhai Air Show, a biennial event that draws global attention. This announcement, made on September 25, comes on the heels of an unprecedented intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test, sending shockwaves across the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.
With the event scheduled from November 12 to November 17 in Zhuhai, Guangdong Province, China is expected to make significant advancements in its military aviation sector known to the world.
Zhuhai Air Show
The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) revealed that its latest warplanes would make their public debut at the Zhuhai Air Show. Speaking at a press conference on September 25, Lieutenant General Yu Qingjiang, Vice Commander of the PLA Air Force, provided a preview of what the world could expect at the event. He emphasized that the display would demonstrate China’s advancements in air combat, unmanned warfare, strategic delivery, air defense, and early warning systems.
Lieutenant General Yu stated, “We want to display the PLA Air Force’s capabilities and confidence in firmly defending national sovereign unity and territorial integrity and positively convey its vision and voice of safeguarding peace, openness for cooperation, and equal communication.”
While the official did not disclose specific aircraft models, speculation is rife about the potential unveiling of next-generation warplanes and aero-engines. The show is expected to highlight China’s military strength at a time of heightened regional tensions.
Speculation on Next-Generation Aircraft
China’s military aviation industry has made rapid strides over the past decade, fueling curiosity over the specific aircraft set to be showcased. Although much speculation surrounds the potential debut of the H-20 stealth bomber, military analysts believe it may not yet be ready for public display. The H-20, anticipated to be China’s answer to the US B-21 Raider bomber, is designed for long-range strategic bombing missions. According to Chinese aviation expert Fu Qianshao, while the aircraft’s unveiling is highly anticipated, it may not feature in this year’s show.
However, Fu noted that other advanced equipment could take centre stage. Among the most anticipated developments are:
- Y-20 Transport Aircraft: Equipped with newly developed domestic engines, the Y-20 is expected to demonstrate China’s capabilities in strategic delivery and airdropping operations.
- Unmanned Stealth Drones: China has been heavily investing in unmanned aerial systems (UAS), and the air show could see the debut of stealth drones capable of counter-unmanned warfare.
- FC-31 Derivatives: A medium-sized stealth fighter jet based on the FC-31 could be showcased, potentially marking the evolution of China’s fifth-generation fighter jets.
These potential unveilings would signal China’s progress in indigenous aircraft development, particularly its growing capacity to field advanced fighter jets and stealth technologies.
J-35 Stealth Fighter on the Horizon?
Adding to the intrigue, reports from earlier in September indicated that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) might be testing a new carrier-based fighter jet, believed to be the J-35. Based on the FC-31 platform, the J-35 is said to be China’s next-generation stealth aircraft for aircraft carriers. If confirmed, this development could have significant implications for the PLAN’s growing capabilities.
China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, has reportedly been used to test this unknown carrier-based fighter jet, although official details remain scarce. Fu Qianshao highlighted that the FC-31 had previously appeared in its original form at the Zhuhai Air Show, suggesting that updated or modified variants may finally make their public debut this year. Speculation has also emerged regarding multiple FC-31 variants, including both land-based and carrier-based versions.
The Zhuhai Air Show is a premier event for China to display its aviation advancements and military prowess. Given the timing, just weeks after a groundbreaking ICBM test, the 2023 event is expected to serve as a platform for China to flex its military muscle to both regional rivals and global observers.
September 25 ICBM Test: A Signal to Rivals
China’s Ministry of Defense confirmed that it had successfully conducted an ICBM test on September 25, marking the country’s first test of this kind in 44 years. The missile, identified as the DF-41, is believed to have a range of up to 15,000 kilometers, making it one of the longest-range missiles in the world.
The DF-41 is capable of carrying nuclear warheads and poses a significant strategic threat. According to the Ministry, the ICBM was launched with a simulated warhead and landed accurately in a predetermined area in the Pacific Ocean. This rare televised test was a stark reminder of China’s growing military might, particularly in the context of the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific.
Japan expressed concerns over not being notified about the test in advance, a sentiment echoed by several regional actors. The timing of the test, just hours after U.S. President Joe Biden addressed the United Nations, was seen as a calculated signal to Washington and other nations involved in the Indo-Pacific’s complex power dynamics.
China’s ICBM test, coupled with its increasing military presence in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, underscores a shift in the Indo-Pacific’s security landscape. Tensions in the region have been escalating due to territorial disputes in the South China Sea, where China has ramped up its naval patrols and military exercises. The test also coincided with rising friction between China and the Philippines, further complicating the regional security environment.
Meanwhile, the PLA has conducted more frequent military drills in the Taiwan Strait and East China Sea, signaling its growing readiness to assert control over disputed areas. The combination of China’s ballistic missile tests and its expanding naval and air force capabilities demonstrates its determination to assert influence over the region, even as it risks provoking responses from neighboring countries and the U.S.
China’s Military Advancements
China’s decision to unveil new warplanes at the Zhuhai Air Show is more than just a showcase of technological progress; it is a strategic statement of military capability. The exhibition, combined with recent ballistic missile tests, reflects China’s broader ambition to establish itself as a dominant military power, both regionally and globally.
As China’s military continues to grow, it increasingly challenges U.S. military dominance in the Indo-Pacific. The debut of new fighter jets, particularly if they include stealth capabilities and advanced aerospace technology, would enhance China’s air superiority, complicating the U.S. and its allies’ ability to project power in the region.
The unveiling of the H-20 stealth bomber, when it eventually occurs, would further shift the balance of power. Modeled as a response to the U.S. B-21 Raider, the H-20 would potentially enable China to conduct long-range, strategic bombing missions, expanding its military reach far beyond its borders.
The unveiling of new military assets at the Zhuhai Air Show, combined with China’s assertive military testing, sends a clear message to its neighbors. Countries like Japan, India, Australia, and the Philippines are likely to view China’s actions with increasing concern. In response, these countries may strengthen their own military capabilities and deepen alliances with the U.S. and other regional partners.
For Taiwan, China’s growing military capability, particularly in terms of stealth fighters and long-range bombers, represents a significant escalation in the threat it faces. The potential for China to enhance its naval aviation with the J-35 could tilt the balance of power further in Beijing’s favor, complicating Taiwan’s defense strategy and the U.S.’s ability to intervene.
As China prepares to unveil its latest warplanes at the Zhuhai Air Show, the country’s military ambitions have become increasingly evident. The combination of cutting-edge aircraft technology and the recent ICBM test sends a strong signal that Beijing is not only expanding its military capabilities but also demonstrating its willingness to assert its influence in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.
The Zhuhai Air Show will be closely watched by military experts, regional actors, and global powers alike. The unveiling of new aircraft, whether it includes the much-anticipated H-20 or other advanced technologies, will likely serve as a key milestone in China’s quest for military supremacy. However, as China continues to bolster its forces, the Indo-Pacific region may face increased instability, prompting a delicate balancing act for all involved players.
