Myanmar’s ongoing civil war, rebel groups have flatly rejected a peace offer from the embattled military junta. The junta, which has been grappling with mounting battlefield defeats and widespread defections, made its first peace overture since seizing power in a 2021 coup. This move comes as Myanmar faces deepening internal strife, especially after a China-brokered ceasefire collapsed in the country’s northern Shan state.
Despite the military’s appeal for political negotiations and the promise of upcoming elections, major rebel groups, including ethnic armies and anti-junta militias, have expressed deep skepticism about the offer. The exiled National Unity Government (NUG) and key armed factions have stated that the junta lacks the legitimacy to organize elections or broker peace.
Junta’s Olive Branch Amid Civil War
On Thursday, the junta extended an olive branch, urging ethnic armed groups and anti-junta militias—referred to by the military as “terrorist insurgent groups”—to enter into political dialogue. The offer came in the face of heavy military losses and a widespread rebellion that has engulfed much of the nation. The military, which had ruled Myanmar for decades before relinquishing power in 2011, reclaimed control in a coup on February 1, 2021, after contesting the results of the national election that brought Aung San Suu Kyi’s party to power.
Since then, Myanmar has been mired in a brutal civil war, with ethnic armed groups, anti-coup militias, and various People’s Defense Forces (PDF) united in their resistance against the junta. The conflict has led to a humanitarian crisis, with more than 50,000 people killed and over two million displaced, according to estimates from the United Nations.
In its statement on Thursday, the junta called on rebel groups to “communicate with us to solve political problems politically” and to participate in elections planned for 2024. The regime has attempted to present itself as a viable political authority, but its control over the country has been severely weakened.
Some reports suggest that the military now governs less than half of Myanmar’s territory. The junta is fighting battles on multiple fronts as rebel forces seize more ground, particularly in strategically vital regions bordering China.
China-Brokered Ceasefire
The junta’s peace offer follows the collapse of a ceasefire brokered by China in the northern Shan state, a region where the military faces intense pressure from ethnic armed groups. In June, three ethnic armies, including the powerful United Wa State Army, renewed their offensive against the junta, capturing territory along a crucial highway connecting Myanmar to China’s Yunnan province.
This highway is critical to China’s regional infrastructure ambitions, part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, which seeks to connect China’s landlocked southwestern provinces to the Indian Ocean through Myanmar. The intensifying conflict threatens these economic projects, and Beijing has taken a more active diplomatic role, pressing Myanmar’s rulers to find a political solution.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly delivered a stern message to Myanmar’s military leader, Min Aung Hlaing, during a visit last month. Wang emphasized the need for stability and urged armed groups to adopt “the path of party politics and elections” in order to bring about “lasting peace and development.”
Rebel Groups Reject the Offer
Despite the junta’s call for political dialogue, rebel groups remain highly suspicious of the military’s intentions. The Karen National Union (KNU), one of the oldest and most powerful ethnic armed groups in Myanmar, dismissed the junta’s proposal outright. The KNU, which has been engaged in an armed struggle for greater autonomy along the Thai border for decades, outlined stringent conditions for any future talks.
“Talks are only possible if the military agrees to common political objectives,” KNU spokesman Padoh Saw Taw Nee told AFP. He elaborated on the group’s three main demands: no military participation in future politics, agreement on a federal democratic constitution, and accountability for war crimes committed by the military. “If these demands are not met, we will continue to apply pressure politically and militarily,” Padoh Saw Taw Nee said.
The KNU is not alone in its rejection of the junta’s overtures. Other prominent armed factions, including the Bamar People’s Liberation Army and the Mandalay People’s Defense Forces, have also expressed their distrust of the regime’s intentions.
Maung Saungkha, the leader of the Bamar People’s Liberation Army, told Reuters, “We are not interested in this offer. The junta is insincere.” This sentiment was echoed by Soe Thu Ya Zaw, commander of the Mandalay People’s Defense Forces, who dismissed the junta’s proposal on Facebook, saying, “They are hanging goat’s heads but selling dog meat”—a colloquialism suggesting that the junta’s promises are deceptive.
The exiled National Unity Government (NUG), which includes former lawmakers and leaders who fled Myanmar following the coup, also rejected the military’s peace proposal and its plans for an election. The NUG, which represents the pro-democracy movement and has garnered international recognition, argued that the military has no authority to conduct elections after having overthrown the country’s legitimate government.
“The military junta’s offer is not worth considering,” an NUG spokesperson said in a statement. “They have no legitimacy to hold elections or negotiate a peace agreement. Any political solution must come from the people of Myanmar, not a regime that has lost control of the country.”
Growing Violence and Humanitarian Crisis
The rejection of the junta’s peace offer comes amid escalating violence across the country. Since the military’s seizure of power, peaceful protests were initially met with brutal repression, including mass arrests and killings. As the situation deteriorated, ethnic armed groups that had long opposed the central government formed alliances with newly created anti-coup militias, plunging Myanmar into full-scale civil war.
The United Nations reported last week that Myanmar was “sinking into an abyss of human suffering,” as violence and repression continued unabated. Eyewitness accounts from various regions have described widespread human rights abuses perpetrated by the military, including torture, arbitrary arrests, and the targeting of civilians.
In a particularly chilling report, victims described horrific torture methods employed by the military, such as burning people with gasoline and forcing detainees to drink urine. These accounts have fueled growing demands for accountability and justice, both within Myanmar and from international human rights organizations.
Geopolitical Ramifications and China’s Role
The ongoing conflict in Myanmar has drawn the attention of international powers, particularly China, which shares a long border with the Southeast Asian nation. Beijing’s interests in Myanmar are both economic and strategic, with China’s Belt and Road projects relying heavily on stability in the region.
The military junta’s inability to maintain control over critical border areas, especially in Shan state, has directly impacted China’s plans to build transportation links from Yunnan province to the Indian Ocean. This has increased pressure on Beijing to intervene diplomatically, urging a cessation of hostilities.
However, China’s influence in Myanmar is complex. Beijing has historically maintained relationships with both the military and various ethnic armed groups, seeking to balance its strategic interests in the region. While China remains a key player in any potential peace process, it is unclear whether its diplomatic efforts will be enough to quell the violence.
The rejection of the junta’s peace offer by rebel groups indicates that the road to peace in Myanmar remains long and uncertain. While the military struggles to retain control over the country, its legitimacy is increasingly called into question, both domestically and internationally.
As ethnic armed groups and anti-coup militias continue to gain ground, the junta’s position appears increasingly precarious. The military’s continued reliance on violence and repression, coupled with its inability to engage meaningfully with opposition groups, suggests that a political solution remains elusive.
For the people of Myanmar, the ongoing conflict has brought untold suffering, with millions displaced from their homes and entire communities devastated by the fighting. The international community, including the United Nations, continues to call for an end to the violence and for a return to democratic governance. However, until the junta acknowledges the demands of the opposition groups and agrees to meaningful reforms, peace in Myanmar remains out of reach.
The situation in Myanmar underscores the deep complexities of civil wars rooted in ethnic divisions, political grievances, and military authoritarianism. With no clear end in sight, the country faces a prolonged and painful struggle for its future.
