In July 2021, an unprecedented move saw approximately 1,000 personnel from the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) and the Rwanda National Police (RNP) deployed to the violence-ridden Cabo Delgado province in northern Mozambique. The region had been enduring escalating attacks by insurgent groups, including violent extremists linked to the Islamic State, since 2017. The deployment of the Rwandan troops came in response to Mozambique’s call for assistance to restore peace and stability in an area critical for the nation’s economy, particularly in light of the large liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects in the region.
The official objective of the Rwandan mission was clear: restore state authority in Cabo Delgado by conducting combat and security operations, contributing to security sector reforms, and stabilizing the region. However, the deployment has drawn scrutiny from various quarters over its real intentions, the coordination (or lack thereof) with other forces, and the long-term implications for Mozambique’s sovereignty.
Cabo Delgado, one of Mozambique’s northernmost provinces, has immense strategic importance. Beyond its natural beauty and agricultural potential, the province is home to vast reserves of natural gas, attracting billions of dollars in investments. The multinational energy giants, such as TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, and Eni, are leading massive LNG projects, which are considered crucial for the future economic development of Mozambique. These projects have been viewed as game-changers for the country’s economy, offering the promise of significant government revenues and employment opportunities.
However, the escalating terrorist threat in Cabo Delgado endangered these investments. Insurgent attacks, often targeting civilians, infrastructure, and the LNG projects, resulted in the suspension of some operations, particularly by TotalEnergies in Palma. The disruption posed not only a threat to Mozambique’s economy but also to broader regional security. Against this backdrop, the arrival of the RDF and RNP in Mozambique seemed as much about securing these economic assets as about restoring peace.
Rwandan Forces in Palma and Mocímboa da Praia
Upon their arrival, Rwandan forces were strategically deployed in the districts of Palma and Mocímboa da Praia, two areas at the heart of the LNG ventures. Both districts had been severely impacted by insurgent violence, and securing them became paramount not only for restoring government authority but also for resuming LNG operations.
This raised questions, particularly from civil society and opposition groups in Mozambique, about the true nature of the Rwandan mission. Critics argued that the protection of Western-led multinational projects had taken precedence over the stated objectives of the mission. This perception only deepened when SAMIM, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in Mozambique, was deployed further away from these critical economic hubs. SAMIM was tasked with combatting terrorism and restoring security, primarily focusing on areas not directly linked to the LNG projects.
One of the most pressing challenges during the initial stages of the mission was the lack of coordination between the Rwandan forces, SAMIM, and the Mozambican security apparatus. The three forces operated independently, with little to no strategic information-sharing or coordination of operations. This disjointed approach led to a number of friendly fire incidents, causing friction on the ground and highlighting the perils of a fragmented security strategy.
SAMIM, whose mandate in Cabo Delgado ended in mid-2024, focused primarily on protecting the local population, while Rwandan forces concentrated on securing the areas around the LNG projects. The absence of a unified command structure meant that opportunities to maximize operational success were lost, leaving security analysts to question whether a more collaborative approach could have better contained the insurgents and prevented further displacement of the terrorist threat.
Battlefield Successes, but Enduring Threats
By the end of 2023, three years after their initial deployment, the Rwandan forces could point to significant achievements on the battlefield. They successfully degraded the insurgents’ firepower, dislodged them from key strongholds, and re-established stability around the LNG projects. Mozambican military commanders echoed these victories in public addresses, asserting that with Rwanda’s assistance, security had been restored to approximately 90% of Cabo Delgado.
However, such claims have been widely disputed. Although the insurgents have been weakened, they are far from defeated. The nature of the threat has evolved: the terrorists have shifted their tactics, increasingly relying on improvised explosive devices (IEDs), while focusing less on direct assaults and more on winning local support. This shift mirrors the approach taken by other extremist groups across Africa, such as Boko Haram in Nigeria, where insurgents pivot from violent attacks to strategies aimed at embedding themselves within local communities.
Rwanda’s success in weakening the insurgency has been commendable, but analysts caution that the long-term goal of eradicating the threat is far from accomplished. The insurgents have shown resilience and an ability to adapt to changing security dynamics, making the situation far more complex than a simple military victory.
While battlefield successes dominate narratives about the Rwandan mission, there is an alarming silence surrounding the other stated objectives of the mission—namely, restoring Mozambican state authority and reforming its security sector. These goals, which were crucial for ensuring long-term stability, have seen little progress.
Government authority in Cabo Delgado remains precarious. The Mozambican state has struggled to assert control over liberated areas, and its security forces continue to operate under suboptimal conditions. Standards of professionalism within the Mozambican forces remain low, exacerbating the country’s reliance on Rwandan troops to maintain order.
This situation has raised concerns among security analysts, with some warning of a creeping dependency on Rwandan forces. Calton Cadeado, a prominent Mozambican security studies expert, warns that Mozambique’s current vulnerability to Rwandan power is evident. He notes that Rwanda has secured a “privileged space” within Mozambique’s security apparatus, raising suspicions that the RDF might adopt a more relaxed stance in future operations to ensure their continued presence remains indispensable for the security of both locals and economic assets.
Skepticism and the Future of the Rwandan Mission
While Rwandan forces have earned goodwill from some sections of the population through civil-military engagement, including building infrastructure, there is growing skepticism about their long-term role in Cabo Delgado. In Mocímboa da Praia, for instance, locals have refused to use a market constructed by the RDF, questioning the true intentions behind the project. Some residents argue that the Rwandan forces came to fight terrorism, not to engage in developmental activities, which blurs the lines of their mission.
Moreover, the continued expansion of the Rwandan military presence has stoked further concerns. Originally deployed as a force of 1,000, the RDF has now grown to around 5,000 troops spread across five districts. Their operational footprint extends over half of Cabo Delgado’s 17 districts and has even expanded into parts of Nampula Province. This growing presence, coupled with the absence of a clear exit strategy, has left many wondering when, or if, Rwanda plans to withdraw.
The bilateral agreement underpinning Rwanda’s military presence in Mozambique remains shrouded in secrecy. Details of the pact have never been disclosed to the public or even to the Mozambican Parliament, fueling accusations of a lack of transparency and democratic oversight. Civil society organizations, opposition groups, and independent media have raised concerns about the implications of such secrecy for Mozambique’s sovereignty.
Three years into the Rwandan mission, it is clear that while Rwanda has achieved significant tactical successes, the broader strategic objectives of restoring state authority and reforming Mozambique’s security sector remain unmet. The insurgent threat, although diminished, persists, and there is little indication that Mozambican forces are ready to take over as the primary guarantors of security in Cabo Delgado.
Moving forward, it is imperative that both Mozambique and Rwanda re-evaluate the scope and objectives of the Rwandan mission. While Rwanda’s support is crucial for combating terrorism, it should not substitute the role of the Mozambican government in securing its own territory. A long-term reliance on foreign troops could have far-reaching implications for Mozambique’s sovereignty and governance.
A clear exit strategy for Rwandan forces is needed—one that ensures a smooth transition of responsibilities to the Mozambican military and a path toward sustainable peace in Cabo Delgado. Moreover, greater transparency around the bilateral agreement is essential to address concerns about accountability and to ensure that the mission serves Mozambique’s long-term interests.
Only by addressing these challenges can Mozambique hope to restore full control over Cabo Delgado and secure a peaceful and prosperous future for the region.
