In the Middle East and beyond, Hezbollah announced the death of its long-serving leader, Hassan Nasrallah, on September 27. The militant group and political party, which controls much of southern Lebanon, said Nasrallah was killed in Israeli air strikes in Beirut. The death of Nasrallah, one of the most prominent figures in the region, represents a severe setback not just for Hezbollah but also for its chief sponsor, Iran.

For more than three decades, Nasrallah was the public face and driving force behind Hezbollah, transforming the Shi’ite militia from a small insurgency into a powerful political and military entity. His leadership made Hezbollah a formidable adversary of neighboring Israel, while also turning it into a major political player within Lebanon itself. His death could have far-reaching consequences for Hezbollah, Iran, and the broader Middle Eastern landscape.

Nasrallah’s Rise to Power: Building Hezbollah’s Influence

Born in 1960 in the Beirut suburb of Bourj Hammoud, Hassan Nasrallah was raised in a Shi’ite family and became involved with religious study from a young age. At the age of 15, he traveled to Najaf, Iraq, to study under the revered Shi’ite cleric Ayatollah Mohammad Baqir al-Sadr. In 1982, during Israel’s invasion of Lebanon, Nasrallah joined Hezbollah, a newly formed militant group backed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps. In 1992, at the young age of 32, Nasrallah was chosen to lead Hezbollah following the assassination of his predecessor, Abbas al-Musawi.

Under Nasrallah’s leadership, Hezbollah grew from a relatively small militant faction into a powerful organization with political, social, and military branches. Hezbollah gained international recognition—and notoriety—after playing a central role in the resistance against Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, leading to Israel’s withdrawal in 2000. Nasrallah’s charismatic leadership, coupled with financial and military support from Iran, helped cement Hezbollah’s place not just as a key player in Lebanese politics but also as the spearhead of Iran’s broader regional ambitions.

Nasrallah was known for his rhetorical skills, his ability to galvanize supporters, and his strategic vision for Hezbollah. His speeches were followed closely in Lebanon and the wider Arab world, and he managed to present himself as a champion of the downtrodden, particularly among Lebanon’s large Shi’ite population. His death leaves a leadership vacuum that experts say will be hard to fill.

Iran’s Axis of Resistance

Nasrallah’s Hezbollah was a cornerstone of Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance,” a network of Tehran-backed militant groups that includes Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs), Yemen’s Houthi rebels, and various Palestinian factions. The axis is a central part of Iran’s regional strategy to challenge Israel and the United States, and Nasrallah played a pivotal role in coordinating operations across these groups. Alongside Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of Iran’s Quds Force who was killed in a U.S. airstrike in 2020, Nasrallah constituted the nucleus of Iran’s expansive regional ambitions.

Ali Fathollah-Nejad, director of the Berlin-based Center for Middle East and Global Order, described Nasrallah’s death as a “major loss and embarrassment” for Iran, akin to the impact of Soleimani’s assassination. “This constitutes the heaviest blow to Tehran’s regional standing since the assassination of Soleimani,” Fathollah-Nejad said in an interview with RFE/RL’s Radio Farda. “Nasrallah, Soleimani, and Khamenei were the triumvirate driving Iran’s strategic ambitions across the Middle East.”

The axis of resistance has been at the forefront of Iran’s efforts to project power beyond its borders, and Hezbollah, under Nasrallah’s leadership, played a key role in that effort. In addition to its military activities, Hezbollah provided training, weapons, and financial support to various groups within the axis, bolstering Iran’s influence in the region.

Hezbollah’s Setbacks and Nasrallah’s Death

Nasrallah’s death comes at a time when Hezbollah has been under increasing pressure, both from Israel and within Lebanon. Over the past year, Israeli forces have conducted a series of targeted operations against Hezbollah, neutralizing key leaders and military assets. According to former CIA officer Norman Roule, Israel’s actions have severely weakened Hezbollah’s operational capacity. “Israel’s Defense Forces have eradicated an entire generation of Hezbollah leadership who take with them a collective pool of experience that is irreplaceable,” Roule said.

In addition to Israeli military strikes, Hezbollah has faced growing discontent within Lebanon. The country is in the midst of a severe economic and political crisis, and many Lebanese blame Hezbollah for its role in exacerbating the situation. Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian Civil War on behalf of President Bashar al-Assad, at Iran’s behest, further tarnished its reputation within Lebanon, particularly among the Sunni and Christian populations.

The loss of Nasrallah could exacerbate these problems. Experts argue that while Hezbollah has become an institutionalized organization, it remains highly dependent on Nasrallah’s leadership. “Nasrallah will be difficult to replace,” said Roule. “Any successor will lack his political stature in Lebanon and personal relationship with Iran’s supreme leader.”

The power vacuum left by Nasrallah’s death could lead to internal strife within Hezbollah as various factions vie for control. The group is likely to face difficulties in maintaining the same level of cohesion and coordination without Nasrallah at the helm.

For Iran, Nasrallah’s death is more than just a loss for Hezbollah; it is a significant blow to its broader regional strategy. Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, warned that Nasrallah’s death would have “serious implications” for Iran’s axis of resistance. “In the short term, it will result in serious gaps, lack of coordination, and ambiguity,” Azizi said.

While other members of the axis, such as Yemen’s Houthi rebels, could take on a more prominent role in the network, they may not be able to fill the void left by Hezbollah. The Houthis have proven to be more effective than other groups in challenging Israel since the outbreak of the Gaza war in 2023, but Azizi cautioned that their role in the axis is not guaranteed. “There is no guarantee that they will remain as such, given Israel’s determination to go after [members of the axis] one by one,” he said.

Iran’s ability to maintain its influence in Lebanon and the broader Levant will likely be tested in the coming months. Without Nasrallah, the axis of resistance could struggle to maintain the same level of operational efficiency and strategic coherence. Furthermore, Iran will need to find a way to compensate for the loss of one of its most trusted and capable lieutenants.

Hezbollah

In the immediate aftermath of Nasrallah’s death, Hezbollah’s leadership will need to act swiftly to prevent internal fractures and maintain its operational capacity. While the group is deeply entrenched in Lebanese politics and has a robust military infrastructure, its reliance on Nasrallah’s personal leadership could make this transition particularly difficult.

Heiko Wimmen, an expert at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, noted that while Hezbollah is too institutionalized to be completely decapitated, it cannot withstand too many “dramatic blows.” Wimmen warned that Nasrallah’s death, combined with the broader challenges facing Hezbollah, could push the organization toward a breaking point. “Something will eventually give,” he said.

Potential successors to Nasrallah are unlikely to command the same level of respect and authority within the organization and its Iranian sponsors. Nasrallah’s political savvy, charisma, and deep personal ties to Tehran made him a uniquely capable leader. Whoever takes his place will likely struggle to match his effectiveness, particularly at a time when Hezbollah is facing increasing military and political pressure.

Israel, Lebanon, and Beyond

Nasrallah’s death is likely to have significant regional repercussions. For Israel, which has long viewed Hezbollah as one of its most dangerous adversaries, Nasrallah’s death may be seen as a major strategic victory. Israel has spent decades attempting to weaken Hezbollah, and the loss of its top leader could reduce the group’s ability to wage war against Israel. However, Hezbollah’s remaining leadership may seek to avenge Nasrallah’s death, raising the specter of renewed violence along the Israeli-Lebanese border.

Within Lebanon, Nasrallah’s death could exacerbate existing tensions. The country is already in a state of political paralysis, with deep divisions between different religious and political groups. Hezbollah’s dominance within Lebanese politics has been a source of controversy, and Nasrallah’s absence may create opportunities for rival factions to challenge the group’s influence.

The broader Middle East is also likely to feel the effects of Nasrallah’s death. With Iran’s axis of resistance now facing a leadership crisis, regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel may seek to capitalize on the resulting instability. The balance of power in the region, particularly in countries like Syria and Iraq where Iran has significant influence, could shift in unpredictable ways.

Hassan Nasrallah’s death marks the end of an era for Hezbollah and Iran’s regional strategy. As one of the most influential figures in the Middle East, Nasrallah played a central role in shaping the trajectory of Hezbollah and Iran’s axis of resistance. His loss is a severe blow to both Hezbollah and Iran’s regional ambitions, leaving a leadership vacuum that will be difficult to fill.