The Philippines’ military announced on Friday that it successfully delivered vital supplies to its troops stationed at Second Thomas Shoal, marking the second consecutive unhindered resupply mission since a July agreement with China aimed at easing tensions in the South China Sea, also known locally as the West Philippine Sea. However, ongoing tensions persist between Manila and Beijing, with reports of standoffs at another nearby shoal, underscoring the fragile state of the region’s geopolitical landscape.
Despite the presence of eight Chinese vessels near Second Thomas Shoal, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) confirmed that these ships did not obstruct the resupply mission, which was crucial for the stationed Philippine troops. This successful operation reflects a tentative calm between the rival claimants in the disputed waters, yet it also underscores the volatile nature of the territorial disputes in the region.
“The AFP was able to deliver essential supplies to our troops in the area and completed the mission,” stated AFP spokeswoman Col. Francel Margareth Padilla. Second Thomas Shoal, known as Ayungin Shoal in the Philippines and Ren’ai Jiao in China, is located within Manila’s 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
While this mission was carried out without interference, it highlights both the successes and ongoing challenges of navigating the territorial dispute between the two countries.
Provisional Agreement Brings Temporary Relief
This latest resupply mission follows an agreement reached between the Philippines and China in July 2023 to ease tensions related to military operations in the disputed area. Philippine military officials confirmed that China did not interfere with the previous supply mission on July 27, a week after the provisional arrangement was reached. While this provisional agreement allowed the supply missions to proceed smoothly, the lack of transparency regarding its specifics raises questions about the durability of the arrangement.
For years, Philippine resupply missions to Second Thomas Shoal have faced harassment from Chinese vessels, which claim nearly the entire South China Sea as part of their national territory through the controversial nine-dash line. The Philippines, on the other hand, relies on its sovereign claim based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and a 2016 ruling from The Hague that rejected China’s claims.
Tensions peaked on June 17 when a Filipino serviceman was wounded in a violent encounter near the BRP Sierra Madre, a rusting World War II-era ship deliberately grounded by the Philippines to bolster its territorial claim at Second Thomas Shoal. The ship serves as a makeshift military outpost for Filipino soldiers, underscoring the strategic importance of the area. The June clash intensified concerns over escalating conflict between the two nations.
“The AFP will continue to perform its mandates in the [South China] Sea and provide full support and care for our stationed troops,” said AFP public affairs chief Col. Xerxes Trinidad.
Ongoing Chinese Presence
Although the recent resupply missions proceeded without direct interference, China’s continued surveillance of the operations emphasizes its presence and ongoing claim over the contested waters. According to China Coast Guard spokesman Liu Dejun, Beijing monitored Thursday’s resupply operation, ensuring that the mission followed the terms of the earlier agreement.
“The Philippines sent a civilian vessel to deliver life supplies to its illegal ‘sitting beach’ warship off Ren’ai Reef, and the Chinese Coast Guard questioned and confirmed the Philippine vessel and supervised the whole process,” Liu stated. He emphasized that China would continue to conduct law enforcement activities in the disputed South China Sea, underscoring the broader contest for control in the region.
The waters of the South China Sea have long been a geopolitical hotspot, with various nations, including Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Brunei, also claiming parts of the resource-rich sea. The Philippines’ approach to the dispute has historically vacillated between diplomatic efforts and military assertion. However, Beijing’s construction of artificial islands, the establishment of military bases, and frequent patrols by the Chinese Coast Guard in contested waters have escalated tensions.
Manila’s military strategy focuses on maintaining a physical presence in its claimed areas, such as Second Thomas Shoal. Yet, this comes at a high cost, not only financially but also in terms of military personnel constantly at risk of harassment from a more technologically advanced and well-funded Chinese military. Despite these challenges, the Philippines has steadfastly pursued its claims, using both diplomatic channels and international legal decisions.
Sabina Shoal: Another Tense Flashpoint
Just as tensions at Second Thomas Shoal temporarily eased, conflict appears to have resurfaced at Sabina Shoal, another area of strategic importance for the Philippines. Sabina Shoal serves as a rendezvous point for Philippine ships en route to resupply missions at Second Thomas Shoal. The National Security Council confirmed on Thursday that Philippine forces had reestablished a presence there after pulling out their lone coast guard ship two weeks earlier.
In August, tensions flared when the Philippines accused a Chinese ship of ramming its vessel at Sabina Shoal several times, marking the fifth instance of alleged Chinese harassment in that month alone. Chinese officials countered by accusing the Philippine vessel of acting recklessly, insisting it had rammed into the Chinese ship. This ongoing back-and-forth highlights the broader diplomatic impasse between the two nations over maritime rights and territorial claims.
The South China Sea remains one of the most contentious regions in global geopolitics, with its strategic importance extending far beyond the Philippines and China. As one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, the waters are vital for international trade. The seabed also holds vast reserves of natural resources, including oil and gas, making control over the area an economic priority for many claimant nations.
However, the South China Sea’s geopolitical significance has also attracted the attention of external powers, most notably the United States. As a longstanding ally of the Philippines, Washington has reiterated its commitment to supporting Manila under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty. Recent U.S. freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, designed to challenge China’s expansive claims, have further complicated the region’s dynamics.
China views these U.S. operations as provocations, while the Philippines, although benefiting from U.S. support, must carefully manage its relations with both superpowers. The U.S. seeks to maintain a balance of power in the region, but Manila, with its smaller military and economic reliance on China, is caught in a precarious position. The Duterte administration, which sought closer ties with Beijing, had strained relations with Washington, though the current government under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has taken steps to restore cooperation with the U.S.
Pros and Cons of the Provisional Agreement
The July 2023 provisional agreement between the Philippines and China represents a notable development in their long-standing territorial dispute.
- Temporary De-escalation: The agreement has allowed for the uninterrupted resupply of Philippine troops, ensuring that critical provisions reach Second Thomas Shoal without violence.
- Diplomatic Opening: By avoiding direct conflict, the agreement may open doors for further diplomatic engagement between Manila and Beijing, fostering a more stable environment for future negotiations.
- Reduced Risk to Personnel: Philippine soldiers stationed aboard the BRP Sierra Madre no longer face the immediate threat of harassment during supply runs, reducing potential casualties.
- Lack of Transparency: The agreement’s details remain undisclosed, raising concerns about what concessions Manila may have made to Beijing. This lack of clarity undermines public confidence in the deal’s long-term viability.
- Fragile Nature: The temporary nature of the agreement suggests it could collapse if either side feels slighted or if new incidents occur. The situation at Sabina Shoal illustrates that tensions remain high.
- Increased Chinese Surveillance: While the agreement has prevented interference, China’s surveillance of Philippine operations demonstrates Beijing’s continued assertion of control over disputed waters.
As the Philippines navigates its territorial claims in the South China Sea, it faces a complex web of diplomatic, military, and economic challenges. The recent successes in resupplying Second Thomas Shoal indicate a possible thaw in the simmering conflict with China, but the situation remains fragile. With other flashpoints such as Sabina Shoal still in play and the broader geopolitical tug-of-war between the U.S. and China influencing the region, the Philippines must tread carefully to protect its sovereignty while avoiding outright confrontation.
Ultimately, Manila’s ability to balance its national interests with those of powerful neighbors and allies will determine the long-term stability of its presence in the South China Sea. For now, the successful resupply of Second Thomas Shoal provides a momentary reprieve, but the stormy waters of the disputed sea are far from calm.
