In a vote to replace Fumio Kishida as the head of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), party members have elected Shigeru Ishiba as their new leader. Given the LDP’s strong majority in the National Diet, this victory effectively positions Ishiba, 67, to become the next prime minister of Japan by default.
Ishiba, a veteran politician with over three decades of experience, steps into leadership at a critical juncture for both his party and the nation. With a reputation as a defense expert and an outspoken advocate for rural revitalization, Ishiba’s ascent signals potential shifts in Japan’s political landscape. However, his election also raises questions about his ability to manage internal party dynamics, implement needed reforms, and restore public trust after recent scandals have severely damaged the LDP’s standing.
Ishiba’s Political Journey: From Outsider to Party Leader
Shigeru Ishiba first entered Japanese politics in 1986 when he won a seat in the House of Representatives. Over the years, he has held several key cabinet posts, including Director of the Defense Agency, which was later transformed into the Ministry of Defense. His deep expertise in security and defense matters has made him one of the leading voices on these issues within the LDP.
However, Ishiba’s political journey has not been without controversy. In 1993, amid growing public dissatisfaction with the LDP, he left the party—a move that cost him the trust of many within the party ranks. When he returned to the fold four years later, some LDP members viewed him as a traitor, a perception that persists among certain factions to this day.
Despite his fraught relations with the LDP elite, Ishiba has long maintained a broad base of support among rank-and-file members. His ability to connect with the grassroots was instrumental in securing his victory over Sanae Takaichi, a close ally of former prime minister Shinzo Abe, in what many observers have described as one of the most contentious leadership races in recent Japanese political history.
Ishiba’s election comes in the wake of a difficult period for the LDP. Fumio Kishida, the outgoing prime minister, announced earlier this year that he would not seek re-election as party leader after his three-year term ended. His tenure had been marred by a series of political scandals, which contributed to a significant decline in public support for both the government and the LDP as a whole.
One of the most damaging scandals was the revelation of the LDP’s links to the controversial Unification Church, which came to light after the assassination of former prime minister Shinzo Abe in 2022. The public’s outrage was further compounded by reports of LDP slush funds, which have continued to dog the party in recent months.
In a bid to restore public trust, Kishida initiated reforms aimed at dismantling the LDP’s factional power structures, which have long been a source of internal discord and corruption. These factions, which had historically served as mechanisms for consolidating support and distributing government portfolios, were also seen as the root cause of many of the party’s scandals.
However, by challenging these entrenched power structures, Kishida alienated key figures within the party, diminishing his own re-election prospects. This internal struggle culminated in a highly competitive leadership contest, with nine candidates vying for control of the LDP.
Ishiba’s Path to Leadership
The LDP’s constitution dictates a unique voting process for leadership elections. In the first round, the votes of 368 members of parliament are combined with 368 votes allocated proportionally to rank-and-file members. The top two candidates then proceed to a second round, where only the party’s National Diet members and prefectural branches participate in the final decision.
This structure often gives an advantage to candidates popular among the LDP’s elite. However, when the party’s leadership becomes particularly unpopular with the general public, Diet members may make a strategic choice to back a candidate with strong grassroots appeal. This dynamic played out in 2001 when Junichiro Koizumi secured the LDP leadership by campaigning against the party’s own internal corruption, a strategy that has drawn comparisons to Ishiba’s own path to leadership.
In this year’s election, Ishiba’s opponent, Sanae Takaichi, garnered support from powerful LDP factions and prominent figures such as LDP Vice-President Taro Aso. Takaichi, known for her revisionist conservative policies and close ties to the Abe faction, promised to shield the party from further investigations into its financial misdeeds. In contrast, Ishiba, though initially critical of the LDP’s scandals, remained largely silent on the issue during the campaign to avoid further alienating Diet members.
Ultimately, Ishiba’s strong base of support among rank-and-file members helped him survive the first round of voting and propelled him to victory in the final runoff.
A Party in Crisis: Can Ishiba Steady the Ship?
Ishiba takes over the LDP at a time of internal crisis. With the party’s traditional factional power bases in disarray, many observers fear a return to Japan’s notorious era of “revolving-door” governments, when prime ministers were frequently replaced due to instability and intra-party feuding.
The LDP’s internal divisions have also come under intense public scrutiny, and many voters are eager for meaningful reforms. By electing Ishiba, the party has sent a signal that it is willing to chart a new course in response to the electorate’s growing frustration. However, it remains to be seen whether Ishiba can marshal enough support from within the LDP to effectively implement his policies.
One of Ishiba’s central promises during the campaign was to revitalize Japan’s rural regions, an issue close to his heart given his own constituency in Tottori, a largely rural area. He has pledged to drive economic growth by supporting local economies and reducing the growing inequality between Japan’s urban centers and its depopulated countryside.
A New Vision for Japan’s Defense and Foreign Policy
Ishiba’s extensive experience in defense matters positions him as a strong voice on national security, and his election is expected to bring significant changes to Japan’s defense and foreign policies. He is a staunch advocate of stronger security relations with the United States and has called for Japan to adopt a more robust military posture in the face of regional threats, particularly from China and North Korea.
In addition to strengthening the U.S.-Japan alliance, Ishiba has proposed the creation of an “Asian NATO,” an expansion of Japan’s security cooperation with other countries in the region. At the same time, however, he has also emphasized the importance of diplomacy, advocating for greater engagement with China and Russia to reduce tensions and promote regional stability.
Ishiba’s positions on social issues mark a potential departure from the LDP’s more conservative factions. He has expressed support for legalizing same-sex marriage and allowing couples to maintain separate surnames—both of which enjoy broad public support but remain controversial within the LDP’s traditionalist base.
Economically, Ishiba faces the challenge of defining his approach to Japan’s fiscal policy. As a critic of “Abenomics”—the economic strategy championed by former prime minister Shinzo Abe—he is expected to take a more cautious stance on government spending. He has advocated for fiscal discipline while also calling for increased public works spending to address inequality and revitalize rural areas.
On the energy front, Ishiba has been critical of Kishida’s decision to return to nuclear power, favoring instead a shift toward renewable energy sources. This stance reflects growing public concern about the safety of nuclear energy following the 2011 Fukushima disaster, though it may put him at odds with powerful pro-nuclear factions within the LDP.
Ishiba’s immediate challenge will be to consolidate his leadership within the LDP and steer the party toward success in the upcoming general election, expected later this year. With a fragmented opposition, the LDP remains the dominant force in Japanese politics, but public discontent with the party is high.
Ishiba’s success will depend not only on his ability to unite the party but also on his capacity to restore public trust in the LDP. If he fails to deliver on his promises for reform, his tenure as both LDP leader and prime minister could be short-lived.
The Diet is scheduled to convene on Tuesday, where Ishiba will be formally elected as Japan’s new prime minister. His first major task will be to form a new cabinet and announce the LDP’s leadership, setting the stage for what promises to be a pivotal chapter in Japan’s political history. Whether Ishiba can meet the public’s high expectations remains to be seen, but his election undoubtedly marks a significant moment for Japan’s future.
