The United States and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have experienced noticeable strain over the past few years as the Emirati kingdom developed closer ties with China. The two countries had a longstanding partnership across various sectors, but the UAE’s growing relationship with Beijing, especially in technology, raised concerns in Washington. However, recent developments suggest that the UAE may be pivoting back toward the U.S. under pressure, leading to new collaborative efforts, particularly in the field of artificial intelligence (AI).
According to a recent report by the South China Morning Post, the UAE has taken steps to align its technology investments more closely with U.S. interests. After months of U.S. lobbying and concerns about security risks, the UAE has agreed to refrain from forming partnerships with Chinese AI companies. The agreement, finalized last week, marks a significant moment in U.S.-UAE relations, as it could reshape the tech landscape in the region and reestablish trust between the two nations.
Artificial Intelligence in Diplomacy
AI is increasingly becoming a point of contention in international diplomacy, as nations vie to control cutting-edge technologies that are critical for both economic competitiveness and national security. The U.S. has expressed concerns that Chinese AI firms, particularly those with ties to the Chinese government, pose potential security risks if they gain access to sensitive information or infrastructure in foreign nations.
In this context, Washington has pressed its allies, including the UAE, to limit their collaborations with Chinese tech giants. For the UAE, which has been a regional leader in tech development and innovation, this represented a challenging balancing act. China has been a key player in the UAE’s efforts to modernize its technology infrastructure, especially with the introduction of 5G networks spearheaded by companies like Huawei.
However, under the new agreement, state-owned Emirati IT companies will now adhere to U.S. guidelines, avoiding partnerships with Chinese AI firms that the U.S. deems security threats. This move signals a shift in the UAE’s foreign policy approach, which had previously embraced a more diversified set of global partnerships.
U.S. Expanding Military Presence in Middle East
The UAE’s decision to comply with U.S. demands comes amid broader geopolitical shifts in the region. Washington has been increasing its military footprint in the Middle East, seeking to play a more influential role as tensions continue to escalate across the region.
One of the most significant recent developments in U.S.-UAE relations is President Joe Biden’s recognition of the UAE as a “major defense partner.” This prestigious designation has only been awarded to one other nation, India, and signals the importance of the UAE as a strategic military ally for the U.S. in the Middle East. This new defense partnership could deepen military cooperation between the two nations, despite previous frictions over issues such as arms deals and the UAE’s growing ties with China.
F-35 Deal: A Potential Revival?
As part of this evolving relationship, there is renewed speculation about the possibility of a revival of the UAE’s interest in purchasing F-35 stealth fighter jets from the U.S. Earlier this month, a report from Reuters suggested that if former U.S. President Donald Trump were to win the 2024 election, the UAE might try to resurrect a multibillion-dollar contract with the U.S. for the acquisition of F-35 jets and combat drones.
The F-35, a cutting-edge stealth fighter jet produced by Lockheed Martin, has become a cornerstone of NATO’s air power, with 19 countries, including Greece and Italy, signing agreements to purchase the aircraft. The war in Ukraine and the resurgence of conventional warfare in Europe have only increased the appeal of the F-35, especially among U.S. allies.
Under President Trump, a deal for the UAE to purchase F-35 jets was authorized in the final days of his administration. However, the negotiations stalled under President Biden, with the UAE ultimately walking away from the deal in late 2021. Instead, the Emirati kingdom placed a historic order for 80 Rafale fighter jets from France, signaling a significant pivot away from U.S. military technology.
Despite this setback, the possibility of a renewed F-35 deal remains a topic of discussion. The Reuters report, citing unnamed sources, claimed that the UAE might attempt to reopen negotiations with the U.S. if Trump were to return to the White House. However, these claims were quickly rebuffed by a senior UAE government official, who stated that the kingdom had no plans to resume talks regarding the F-35 purchase.
“Our position remains unchanged, and we do not anticipate discussions regarding the F-35 being reopened for the foreseeable future, irrespective of the outcome of the upcoming U.S. elections,” the official said, adding that technical requirements, operational restrictions, and a cost-benefit analysis led to the initial rejection of the deal.
Israel Factor in U.S.-Middle Eastern Arms Deals
Another complicating factor in the F-35 negotiations has been the U.S.’s commitment to maintaining Israel’s qualitative military edge (QME) in the Middle East. Under U.S. law, arms sales to countries in the region cannot include equipment that would diminish Israel’s military superiority. While Israel initially opposed the sale of F-35s to any nation other than itself in the region, it is believed that certain assurances were made to Tel Aviv to overcome this hurdle.
However, it is possible that the UAE’s growing ties with China played a decisive role in the collapse of the F-35 negotiations. The U.S. had repeatedly voiced concerns about the potential for Chinese spying, particularly with Huawei’s involvement in the UAE’s 5G infrastructure. Some U.S. officials worried that Huawei’s technology could be used to gather intelligence on F-35 operations if the jets were stationed in the UAE, given their proximity to Chinese-built infrastructure.
The involvement of Huawei in the UAE’s 5G network trials remains one of the most contentious points in the U.S.-UAE relationship. The U.S. has been staunchly opposed to the use of Huawei technology, arguing that the Chinese company poses a national security risk due to its close ties to the Chinese government.
For the UAE, Huawei has been a valuable partner in its technological modernization efforts. The kingdom has been keen to position itself as a regional leader in 5G technology and innovation, with Huawei playing a key role in that vision. Nevertheless, Washington’s insistence on reducing Huawei’s role in the UAE’s infrastructure has added pressure on the kingdom to choose between its relationship with the U.S. and its burgeoning ties with China.
Beyond technology, the U.S. has also raised concerns about the UAE’s involvement in regional conflicts, particularly in Libya and Yemen. The UAE has been a key player in both conflicts, facing accusations of war crimes and human rights violations. These issues have complicated the prospect of large-scale arms deals between the U.S. and the UAE, with some American officials and lawmakers expressing hesitancy about selling advanced military equipment to a nation embroiled in controversial conflicts. However, others argue that the U.S. must maintain strong defense ties with the UAE, given the kingdom’s strategic importance in the region and its role as a counterbalance to Iran’s influence.
U.S.-UAE Relations
As the UAE moves to recalibrate its relationship with China in favor of closer ties with the U.S., the future of U.S.-UAE relations remains uncertain. The new AI collaboration between the two countries signals a potential thaw in diplomatic tensions, but the lingering questions about arms deals, particularly the F-35, and the UAE’s ties to China and other regional conflicts continue to complicate matters.
The 2024 U.S. presidential election could also play a significant role in shaping the future of the relationship. If Donald Trump were to return to office, the UAE might find itself with a renewed opportunity to negotiate favorable terms for an F-35 deal. However, as the recent statement from the UAE suggests, the kingdom may have already moved on from the idea of acquiring the stealth fighter jets, focusing instead on diversifying its defense partnerships and technological alliances.
In the meantime, the U.S. will continue to exert influence in the region, seeking to maintain its strategic alliances while balancing the complexities of Middle Eastern geopolitics. The AI partnership between the U.S. and UAE is an important step in that direction, but whether it will be enough to fully repair the strained ties between the two nations remains to be seen.
