China’s ambitious push for naval dominance took a severe hit when its most advanced nuclear submarine, part of the new Zhou class, sank at the Wuhan shipyard in a highly publicized incident. This event has exposed several vulnerabilities in China’s defense capabilities, raising significant concerns as tensions in the Pacific region intensify amid China’s growing rivalry with the United States and its Pacific allies.
Media outlets last month reported that China’s most advanced nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN) sank while docked at the Wuchang shipyard. The submarine, a cutting-edge Zhou-class vessel built by the China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC), is a key part of China’s broader naval modernization program, which seeks to match or exceed the United States’ capabilities in undersea warfare. According to U.S. defense sources, satellite imagery initially showed the submarine docked at the pier. However, subsequent imagery revealed the presence of cranes, which experts believe were used to recover the vessel after it had sunk. By early June, recovery operations appeared to have been completed, although the extent of the damage remains unclear.
The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) confirmed the incident, marking it as a potentially significant setback for China. The Zhou-class submarine, touted as a symbol of China’s burgeoning naval capabilities, was expected to contribute to Beijing’s strategic efforts to challenge U.S. naval supremacy, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.
The Chinese government has yet to comment publicly on the incident, a notable silence amid mounting scrutiny. It remains possible that the submarine could be salvaged and repaired, but experts believe the setback could lead to delays in China’s naval expansion plans. The loss of the Zhou-class vessel is also seen as offering the U.S. a temporary strategic advantage in the increasingly contested underwater domain, a critical factor in any future conflict over Taiwan.
Rising Tensions and Strategic Consequences
The sinking of China’s most advanced nuclear submarine is more than just a technical failure—it holds significant strategic implications for the regional balance of power. China’s naval modernization efforts have been accelerating rapidly in recent years, spurred by the growing rivalry with the U.S. and tensions over Taiwan. The development of the Zhou-class submarine was seen as a critical component in China’s efforts to project power beyond its shores, with a particular focus on denying U.S. forces access to the Western Pacific.
The loss of the submarine could temporarily weaken China’s underwater strike capabilities, offering the U.S. and its Pacific allies a window of opportunity. U.S. defense analysts have long been concerned about China’s expanding naval reach, particularly its development of advanced submarines capable of conducting long-range offensive operations. These concerns have been heightened by China’s efforts to develop submarines with stealthier propulsion systems and advanced weapons capabilities, including vertical launch systems (VLS) for cruise missiles.
The Zhou-class SSN is believed to be an evolution of the Type 093 Shang-class submarine, with significant enhancements in stealth and operational range. According to defense sources, the Zhou-class features advanced pump-jet propulsion technology, which reduces noise and enhances the submarine’s stealth capabilities. This technology, combined with China’s research into vertical launch systems, suggests that the Zhou-class was designed for both anti-ship and land-attack missions, capable of targeting U.S. Navy assets and land targets as far away as Guam.
However, the sinking of the vessel raises questions about the quality of China’s defense equipment, the training of its personnel, and the internal accountability within its defense industry. These issues could undermine China’s broader naval ambitions at a time when the U.S. is redoubling efforts to strengthen its presence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Corruption and Inexperience: Underlying Issues
The sinking of the Zhou-class submarine also shines a spotlight on deeper structural problems within China’s defense industry. Analysts, including Malte Humpert, writing for GCaptain, have pointed to a lack of operational experience and minor complacency issues as potential contributors to the incident. Humpert suggests that China’s strict vertical chain of command, where decisions require high-level permission, may have exacerbated these issues, preventing personnel from adapting to problems in real-time.
Another factor that has plagued China’s defense industry for years is corruption. According to Yang Yi, writing in the Journal of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences, corruption has become a deeply ingrained issue within China’s state-run military enterprises, particularly in the shipbuilding sector. Since China transitioned from a planned economy to a market-driven one in the 1980s, corruption has flourished due to monopolistic control and a lack of transparency.
High-ranking executives in China’s defense companies have frequently exploited their positions for personal gain. Cases such as Anhui Industrial Group and AVIC Ltd have revealed extensive embezzlement and manipulation of assets by company officials. Yang Yi argues that one of the central problems is the “dual role” system, in which company executives simultaneously hold positions within the Communist Party, creating conflicts of interest that make oversight difficult.
Although Chinese President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign has led to numerous convictions, systemic problems persist. The intertwining of personal relationships (guanxi) with business and political interests continues to impede meaningful reform, leaving the quality and reliability of China’s naval vessels in question. This corruption has likely contributed to the technical failures that led to the Zhou-class submarine’s sinking.
A Race Against the U.S. Navy’s Dominance
Despite the recent setback, China’s rapid naval modernization continues to pose a long-term challenge to U.S. naval supremacy. In a June 2024 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), analysts Alexander Palmer and others detail how China’s shipbuilding capabilities have expanded significantly, allowing it to produce submarines at a pace that outstrips the U.S. Navy.
The CSIS report emphasizes that while the U.S. maintains a qualitative edge in undersea warfare, China’s increasing number of submarines in the Indo-Pacific region could overwhelm U.S. forces in the event of a conflict. China’s strategy of quantity over quality, particularly in the production of both conventional and nuclear-powered submarines, aims to challenge U.S. naval dominance by saturating the region with submarines capable of strategic deterrence and sea denial.
The authors also point out that China’s submarine fleet plays a critical role in its broader naval strategy, which seeks to extend China’s influence beyond the first island chain and establish a dominant presence in the Western Pacific. The Zhou-class submarine was expected to be a key asset in this strategy, providing China with enhanced offensive strike capabilities.
Challenges Facing the U.S. Submarine Fleet
While China’s naval ambitions face challenges from within, the U.S. also struggles to maintain its submarine production capacity. In a 2024 article for American Affairs, Jerry Hendrix highlights significant issues facing the U.S. submarine production base, particularly workforce shortages and supply chain disruptions that have hindered the U.S. Navy’s ability to expand its fleet.
The U.S. Navy has ambitious plans to build additional Virginia-class attack submarines and Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines. However, skilled labor shortages, exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, have caused significant delays and increased costs. Additionally, supply chain disruptions have made it difficult to obtain critical components needed to build and maintain submarines.
Recent reports have also raised concerns about the quality of U.S. warships. Last month, USNI News reported that critical welding flaws and defective parts had been discovered in several U.S. Navy submarines and aircraft carriers. Among the affected vessels were the USS Delaware, a Virginia-class submarine, and the USS Gerald R. Ford, a Ford-class aircraft carrier. Investigations revealed widespread issues with improper welding techniques and the use of incorrect materials, raising alarms about the safety and reliability of the U.S. fleet.
The U.S. Navy has initiated a comprehensive review of its quality control processes and is working closely with contractors to address these issues. However, the ongoing challenges in the U.S. submarine production base could leave the U.S. Navy vulnerable in the face of China’s rapidly expanding fleet.
The sinking of China’s most advanced nuclear submarine underscores the challenges both China and the U.S. face in maintaining and expanding their naval capabilities. For China, the incident highlights vulnerabilities within its defense industry, particularly corruption and a lack of operational experience. While the loss of the Zhou-class submarine is a significant setback, China’s naval modernization efforts show no signs of slowing down. As the U.S. continues to grapple with workforce shortages and quality control issues, the race for naval dominance in the Pacific remains far from settled. The competition between the U.S. and China in the undersea domain will be a critical factor in shaping the future of military power in the region, particularly as tensions over Taiwan continue to simmer.
