The Philippines and China are engaging in dueling patrols and exercises in the contested South China Sea, as their territorial disputes escalate to new levels of intensity. While these maneuvers continue at sea, recent developments on land are driving tensions to potentially dangerous new territory, particularly with the involvement of the United States and its missile systems. What some are calling a “Cuban Missile Crisis-like” scenario has emerged as the Philippines announced it would indefinitely host America’s cutting-edge Typhon missile systems, despite vehement opposition from China.
The Typhon system, a highly advanced mid-range weapon, could play a crucial role in any future conflict involving Taiwan and is capable of launching missiles over 1,600 kilometers, potentially reaching mainland Chinese targets. This ongoing deployment has raised alarms in Beijing, which views the presence of U.S. military assets in the region as a direct threat to its national security.
The deployment of the U.S.-made Typhon missile system to the Philippines first made headlines earlier this year, ahead of the annual joint Philippine-U.S. Balikatan exercises, the largest ever held between the two nations. Described by military officials as a “historic first,” the deployment of this sophisticated missile system was seen as a significant boost to the Philippines’ defense capabilities and a symbol of deepening military ties between Manila and Washington. The Typhon, equipped with SM-6 missiles and Tomahawk cruise missiles, can strike both sea and land targets over vast distances, making it a formidable asset in the region.
At the time, the deployment was framed by both American and Filipino officials as part of a routine logistical exercise. Yet, China’s reactions have been anything but subdued. As soon as news of the Typhon’s presence broke, Chinese officials issued stern warnings, accusing the Philippines and the United States of provoking an arms race in the region. In July, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi criticized the move as destabilizing, arguing that it undermines regional peace. His stance has been echoed by other Chinese diplomats, who have taken the issue to international forums, including the United Nations.
The Philippine government’s initial responses sought to downplay China’s concerns. However, signs have emerged that the U.S. missile systems may remain in the Philippines for an extended period, well beyond the 2024 Balikatan exercises. According to reports, there are growing indications that the Philippine military intends to keep these advanced weapons systems on its soil for the long term, or even indefinitely. As Philippine military chief Romeo Brawner Jr. jokingly remarked in a recent media appearance, the Typhon might remain in the country “forever.”
Strategic Calculations: Manila’s Focus on National Defense
While much of the discourse around the Typhon deployment has focused on the larger geopolitical rivalry between the U.S. and China, the Philippine government appears to be pursuing its own strategic objectives. For years, the Philippines has been locked in a territorial dispute with China over islands and features in the South China Sea, an issue that has led to numerous confrontations between the two countries’ coast guards and fishing fleets.
In recent months, tensions have flared, with the Philippines accusing China of increasingly aggressive actions, including the use of water cannons to block Filipino resupply missions to contested reefs. The Philippine military has grown wary of China’s maritime assertiveness, which has been steadily expanding under Beijing’s “Nine-Dash Line” claims, covering vast swathes of the South China Sea.
Against this backdrop, the deployment of the Typhon missile system is seen by many within the Philippines’ defense establishment as a necessary deterrent. As one senior Filipino official put it, the missile system will give China “sleepless nights,” forcing Beijing to reconsider its actions in the disputed waters.
According to Brawner Jr., the deployment of advanced U.S. weaponry fits into the broader framework of the Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept (CADC), which seeks to modernize the Philippines’ defense capabilities. The military’s goal, according to the general, is not only to deter Chinese incursions but also to build a comprehensive air and maritime defense system capable of responding to external threats. Brawner has publicly called for the acquisition of additional American missile systems to bolster the country’s military preparedness.
U.S.-Philippines Alliance and the Taiwan Factor
Perhaps the most concerning aspect of the Typhon deployment, from China’s perspective, is the Philippines’ geographical proximity to Taiwan. The northern Philippines, where the Typhon system is currently based, is only a short flight away from southern Taiwan. In the event of a military conflict between China and the U.S. over Taiwan, Philippine-based missile systems would provide Washington with a strategic platform from which to target Chinese forces.
This possibility has not gone unnoticed in Beijing. During recent diplomatic engagements, Chinese officials have repeatedly raised the issue of the Typhon system. Most recently, in talks with Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo, Wang Yi expressed China’s “dramatic” concerns over the missile deployment. The Chinese government’s position is clear: any American weapons capable of striking Chinese territory would seriously undermine regional stability.
China’s apprehensions over U.S. missile systems in the region are not new. In the past, Beijing strongly opposed South Korea’s decision to host America’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, which it viewed as a threat to its nuclear deterrent. Despite years of diplomatic pressure, China failed to convince Seoul to reverse its decision. Now, Beijing is applying similar pressure on Manila, hoping to prevent the Typhon system from becoming a permanent fixture on Philippine soil.
The U.S. Distributed Maritime Operations Strategy
For the U.S., the deployment of the Typhon missile system in the Philippines is part of a broader strategy to counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific. Under the U.S. military’s Distributed Maritime Operations (DMO) concept, American forces are seeking to disperse key military assets across the region to reduce their vulnerability to Chinese missile strikes. This approach includes positioning missile systems like the Typhon in geographically dispersed locations, such as the Philippines, to create a more resilient and adaptive network of defense.
As noted by military analysts, the presence of the Typhon system in the Philippines offers the U.S. significant strategic advantages. The system’s sensors and missile platforms can be spread across multiple bases under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), allowing the U.S. to maintain operational flexibility in the event of a conflict. Additionally, the missile’s long range enables it to target Chinese military assets not only in the South China Sea but also on the Chinese mainland.
The Pentagon’s decision to deploy the Typhon to the Philippines comes at a time when the U.S. is ramping up its military presence in the region. The annual Balikatan exercises, which have grown in scale each year, are a clear demonstration of Washington’s commitment to defending its allies in Southeast Asia. These exercises, coupled with the deployment of advanced missile systems, signal the U.S.’s readiness to counter Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific.
As the situation in the South China Sea grows more complex, both Manila and Beijing face difficult choices. For the Philippines, the deployment of the Typhon system represents a balancing act between strengthening its national defense and managing its diplomatic relations with China. While President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has made it clear that the Philippines will not allow itself to be bullied by its northern neighbor, he has also sought to maintain open channels of communication with Beijing.
On the other hand, China’s actions in the South China Sea are testing the limits of its patience with Manila. Beijing’s aggressive maneuvers, from deploying its coast guard to block Filipino resupply missions to issuing stern warnings about the Typhon system, have strained relations with the Philippines. Yet, China cannot afford to alienate Manila entirely, as it remains a key player in the broader regional dynamic.
As tensions rise, both countries must navigate a volatile landscape where any misstep could have serious consequences. The U.S.-Philippines alliance, while crucial for Manila’s security, could also make the country a target in the event of a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan.
The Philippines’ decision to host the U.S. Typhon missile system marks a significant escalation in the region’s ongoing geopolitical struggles. As both China and the U.S. vie for influence in the Indo-Pacific, the small island nation finds itself at the center of a potentially dangerous confrontation. The stakes are high, and the risks are real. Whether this deployment will serve as a deterrent or further inflame tensions remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the South China Sea is poised to remain a flashpoint in the struggle for regional dominance.
