Israel and Hamas have drawn widespread concern that it might escalate into a broader regional conflict, pulling neighboring countries into a devastating confrontation. These fears have become increasingly justified as the conflict has begun to spill over into Lebanon, a fragile nation already battling profound economic and political crises. As the battlefront shifts to southern Lebanon and northern Israel, the primary actors in this new phase of the war are Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group-cum-political party deeply entrenched in Lebanon’s political landscape and society.
In mid-September, Israel officially announced a significant shift in its defense policy regarding its northern border with Lebanon, following persistent rocket attacks from Hezbollah. Over the past year, these attacks have displaced around 70,000 people in northern Israel, leading Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to declare that ensuring the safety and return of these civilians was now a primary war aim. With missile strikes intensifying along the border and Israel’s forces targeting Hezbollah’s leadership and military infrastructure, the stage is set for a grueling and destructive conflict.
Israel claims to have significantly degraded Hezbollah’s military capabilities, but the full outcome of this phase of the war is far from certain. What is clear, however, is that Lebanon, a country teetering on the edge of collapse, stands to suffer the most from this escalation. As debates continue over whether Israel can successfully neutralize Hezbollah, what Iran’s (Hezbollah’s main backer) next moves will be, and how Hamas in Gaza will be impacted, one potential consequence looms large: Lebanon’s possible failure as a state if the war intensifies.
Lebanon’s Fragile State: A Nation on the Brink
For Lebanon, this new escalation comes at an exceptionally vulnerable time. The country has long been plagued by political instability, economic mismanagement, and deep societal divisions. In the past decade, Lebanon has been overwhelmed by corruption, a dysfunctional government, and human rights violations, all of which have contributed to an ongoing breakdown of trust between the government and the people. This deterioration is evident across multiple sectors of Lebanese society, including its shattered economy, decaying infrastructure, and failing public services.
Lebanon’s economic woes are deep-rooted and severe. The country has never fully recovered from the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. Compounding these troubles, the collapse of Lebanon’s financial system in 2019 and the default on its massive public debt in 2020 sent shockwaves through the economy. The Covid-19 pandemic only exacerbated these problems, further crippling Lebanon when it was already struggling to stay afloat. Inflationary pressures and the rising cost of living have further pushed millions of Lebanese into poverty, with almost half the population now classified as living below the poverty line.
The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) has contracted dramatically, from $59 billion in 2018 to just $22 billion today. In tandem, the Lebanese pound has lost 95% of its value, and inflation has surged to an astonishing 200%. Amid this economic freefall, Lebanon has hemorrhaged capital and foreign investors are few and far between, unwilling to risk their resources in a country where economic stability seems a distant memory. Per capita incomes, once around $9,000 in 2018, have plummeted to just $3,300, illustrating the severe economic degradation that has occurred over the last few years.
Breakdown of Public Services and Governance
Lebanon’s infrastructure, too, has suffered under these circumstances. Basic services like electricity and waste management have become scarce, with Lebanon’s state power company struggling to provide even two hours of electricity per day. The country also faces severe shortages in foreign currency reserves, exacerbating a growing trade deficit of approximately $9 billion annually. These challenges have made it increasingly difficult for Lebanese citizens to access basic goods and services, deepening the humanitarian crisis.
The current conflict threatens to exacerbate this precarious situation. Historically, even short wars have left lasting scars on economies, often prolonging recovery efforts by years or even decades. With Israel now gearing up for what could be a long and intense fight with Hezbollah, the prospects for Lebanon’s recovery grow dimmer. If this conflict follows the pattern of previous wars, it could easily push Lebanon to the brink of total economic collapse.
Lebanon’s Troubled History: Echoes of the Past
Lebanon has faced such crises before. The current conflict bears alarming similarities to the country’s turbulent history, particularly the early 1970s and the outbreak of the Lebanese Civil War (1975-1990). Lebanon has long been a host to a significant refugee population, and the civil war in neighboring Syria since 2011 has only added to the strain, with approximately 1.5 million Syrian refugees seeking shelter in Lebanon. While the international community has provided some assistance—such as the EU-Lebanon Compact of 2016 and billions of dollars in financial aid—the country has been unable to cope with the overwhelming demand for healthcare, housing, education, and other vital services.
Lebanon now has the highest refugee-to-citizen ratio in the world, and the added pressures have contributed to a system already in disarray. The political landscape remains one of the most fractured in the region, with rivalries and divisions between political parties rendering the government largely ineffective in addressing the needs of the population. In many ways, Lebanon has been without fully functioning state institutions for much of the last five years, as political gridlock has prevented necessary reforms and governance improvements.
The current conflict threatens to plunge Lebanon into even greater turmoil. With missiles raining down and Israeli airstrikes continuing to target Hezbollah positions, up to a million civilians have already been displaced within Lebanon. Much of the country’s infrastructure, including residential buildings, transportation networks, and utilities, has been damaged or destroyed. And the worst may still be to come. Israel’s stated goal is to eliminate Hezbollah as a military threat, which could very well necessitate a full-scale ground invasion. Should Israeli forces enter Lebanon, the violence and destruction will likely escalate, putting millions of civilians at risk.
These developments conjure memories of Israel’s previous military interventions in Lebanon, particularly the 2006 war and the broader 1982 invasion. The 34-day war in 2006 left Lebanon’s infrastructure in ruins and caused significant loss of life. Meanwhile, the 1982 invasion, which saw Israeli forces occupying southern Lebanon until 2000, brought years of destruction, insecurity, and suffering for the Lebanese people. Today’s conflict risks repeating this history on an even larger scale, with dire consequences for Lebanon’s already fragile society.
Perhaps the greatest danger of the current conflict is the potential for a regional collapse. Lebanon is not a robust or resilient state; it is already teetering on the edge of disaster. If the war between Israel and Hezbollah escalates further, Lebanon could collapse entirely, triggering a humanitarian catastrophe not only for its own citizens but also for the wider region. A failed state in Lebanon would create new waves of refugees, destabilize neighboring countries, and open the door for extremist groups to exploit the chaos.
A second Lebanese civil war is a very real possibility if the conflict continues to escalate. In such a scenario, the various factions and militias in Lebanon could be drawn into the fight, plunging the country into an all-out war that would be nearly impossible to contain. Such an outcome would serve no one’s interests, least of all Lebanon’s neighbors, including Israel. A destabilized Lebanon would create immense security risks for the entire region, adding further volatility to an already unstable Middle East.
The Urgency of De-escalation
As the conflict unfolds, it is imperative that regional and global leaders work to de-escalate tensions and prevent Lebanon from descending into further chaos. The stakes are too high for Lebanon, the Middle East, and beyond. Allowing the war between Israel, Hezbollah, and Hamas to continue unchecked will only lead to greater destruction and suffering, undermining the prospects for long-term stability in the region.
If the conflict is not brought under control, the consequences will be dire. Lebanon, already on the verge of collapse, will likely fail as a state, and the ripple effects will be felt far beyond its borders. A Hobbesian scenario, where the strong do as they will and the weak suffer what they must, cannot be allowed to unfold. The international community must prioritize diplomacy, dialogue, and humanitarian assistance to mitigate the crisis and foster a path toward peace.
Without a concerted effort to de-escalate, Lebanon and the broader Middle East risk spiraling into a period of violence, instability, and human tragedy that will be difficult to reverse. It is time for reason and restraint to prevail in order to prevent a catastrophe whose impacts will resonate far beyond the present conflict.
