India’s Foreign Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar, will attend a crucial meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Pakistan this month. This visit, which marks the first time a high-ranking Indian minister has traveled to Pakistan in nearly a decade, has attracted considerable attention. The meeting holds added importance as it comes amid the ongoing strained relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, India and Pakistan, who have a long history of conflict and rivalry.
The upcoming SCO meeting is scheduled for 15-16 October 2024, with Pakistan as the host. This summit will bring together key regional leaders to discuss matters of security, economics, and cooperation in Central Asia. India’s participation is viewed as both a continuation of diplomatic engagement within multilateral platforms and a potential step towards easing tensions between the two countries, which have been locked in a prolonged diplomatic impasse since 2019.
Relations between India and Pakistan have been fraught since both nations gained independence from British colonial rule in 1947. The two countries have fought three major wars—two of which were centered on the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir. Both nations claim the territory in full, but each controls only parts of it, leading to ongoing conflict. The decades-long insurgency in Indian-administered Kashmir has resulted in thousands of deaths, adding to the already tense dynamic between the countries. India frequently accuses Pakistan of supporting and harboring militant groups that target Indian security forces in Kashmir, a charge that Pakistan consistently denies.
Diplomatic ties between the two countries have fluctuated over the years, often following patterns of brief engagement followed by longer periods of tension. The last significant thaw in relations occurred in 2015, when Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj visited Pakistan for a security conference. Soon after, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a surprise trip to Lahore, meeting then-Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in what many saw as a breakthrough moment in bilateral ties.
However, hopes for peace quickly soured in 2019 after a suicide bombing in Indian-administered Kashmir killed 40 Indian paramilitary soldiers. The attack, which India blamed on a Pakistan-based militant group, triggered Indian airstrikes on Pakistani territory—bringing the two countries dangerously close to the brink of war. Since then, diplomatic channels between New Delhi and Islamabad have been largely frozen, with formal peace talks off the table.
SCO as a Platform for Engagement
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, formed in 2001, serves as a political, economic, and security alliance aimed at fostering cooperation among Central Asian nations. Initially comprised of China, Russia, and four Central Asian countries—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan—the SCO later expanded to include India and Pakistan as full members in 2017. The organisation was conceived as a counterweight to Western influence in the region, particularly the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and its growing importance has made it a platform for managing regional security issues.
For India and Pakistan, the SCO presents a rare multilateral forum where both nations are members, allowing for indirect diplomatic engagement even in times of bilateral tension. The fact that India chaired the SCO in 2023, while Pakistan is hosting the current summit, underscores the shared commitment to remaining part of this regional grouping despite their longstanding hostilities.
The upcoming summit will be closely watched not only because of its implications for India-Pakistan relations but also for its potential impact on broader regional dynamics, especially given the involvement of global powers like China and Russia, both of whom have vested interests in maintaining stability in the region.
Dr. S. Jaishankar’s visit to Pakistan is highly significant, as it represents the first instance of an Indian foreign minister traveling to the neighboring country in nearly a decade. The last such visit was by Sushma Swaraj in 2015. Jaishankar’s Pakistani counterpart, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, had visited India last year for an SCO foreign ministers’ meeting in the Indian state of Goa, which was seen as a tentative step towards reviving diplomacy. However, both sides made it clear at the time that Bhutto-Zardari’s visit was focused solely on the SCO and did not signal a breakthrough in bilateral relations.
India’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Randhir Jaiswal, confirmed at a press briefing that Dr. Jaishankar would lead the Indian delegation to Pakistan for the SCO summit, underlining the importance of India’s participation in such multilateral platforms. However, it remains unclear whether Jaishankar’s visit will lead to any direct talks with Pakistani leaders beyond the formal agenda of the summit.
The optics of the visit are particularly noteworthy given the history of animosity between the two nations. In recent years, India has adopted a firm stance, often refraining from high-level engagement with Pakistan. Jaishankar’s visit, therefore, could be viewed as a cautious yet necessary step, driven by India’s broader regional interests rather than a pivot toward resolving bilateral issues.
Challenges in India-Pakistan Diplomacy
Despite the symbolic importance of Jaishankar’s visit, significant challenges remain. The deep-seated mistrust between New Delhi and Islamabad continues to hamper any efforts at reconciliation. The core issue of Kashmir remains unresolved, with both countries maintaining hardened positions. India’s revocation of Article 370 in 2019, which granted special autonomy to Indian-administered Kashmir, was seen as a provocative move by Pakistan and further soured relations.
In addition, the militarization of the Kashmir region, cross-border skirmishes, and ceasefire violations have fueled tensions over the years. Any diplomatic breakthrough would require addressing these long-standing issues, which neither side appears ready to do at present.
Another challenge lies in the domestic politics of both countries. In India, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has taken a tough stance on Pakistan, portraying itself as a defender of national security in the face of Pakistani aggression. Meanwhile, in Pakistan, the military establishment wields considerable influence over foreign policy, particularly concerning India. These internal dynamics make it difficult for leaders in either country to make bold moves toward reconciliation without facing political backlash.
The upcoming SCO summit also brings into focus the role of global powers such as China and Russia, both of whom have strategic interests in South Asia. China, a close ally of Pakistan, has invested heavily in infrastructure projects as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is a key component of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). At the same time, China’s relationship with India has been strained, particularly due to border disputes in the Himalayas.
Russia, on the other hand, has historically maintained good relations with both India and Pakistan, though it is more closely aligned with India. As a co-founder of the SCO, Russia is likely to use the platform to reinforce its influence in the region, especially as it seeks to balance relations with both China and the West amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The involvement of these global powers in the SCO underscores the complexity of India-Pakistan relations, as their diplomatic moves are often influenced by larger geopolitical considerations.
Will This Visit Lead to a Breakthrough?
While Jaishankar’s visit is undoubtedly an important diplomatic development, expectations of a major breakthrough in India-Pakistan relations should be tempered. The SCO is not a platform designed for bilateral diplomacy, and past meetings within such frameworks have done little to resolve core issues between the two countries.
However, the very act of engagement at this level—especially after years of diplomatic deadlock—offers a glimmer of hope that the two countries may be willing to maintain dialogue, at least in multilateral settings. Whether this visit leads to more sustained communication or represents a one-off event remains to be seen.
Observers will be watching closely to see if any side meetings or informal discussions take place between Indian and Pakistani officials during the summit. While both sides have stated that the visit is focused solely on the SCO agenda, multilateral forums like these often provide an opportunity for sideline diplomacy, where contentious issues can be broached in a less formal setting.
The upcoming SCO summit in Pakistan will be a landmark event, not only because of its broader geopolitical significance but also because of the rare high-level engagement it will facilitate between India and Pakistan. Dr. S. Jaishankar’s visit is a historic moment, representing the first such diplomatic engagement in nearly a decade.
While the likelihood of resolving deep-seated issues between the two nations remains slim, the visit signals a commitment by both countries to remain engaged in multilateral platforms, even when bilateral relations are at their lowest. The future of India-Pakistan relations will likely continue to hinge on regional and global dynamics, with the SCO playing a pivotal role as one of the few forums where both countries can engage diplomatically.
As the world watches this historic meeting, the broader question remains: Can India and Pakistan find a way to move beyond their longstanding animosity and work towards greater regional stability, or will the status quo of tension and conflict continue to prevail?
