This week, the Middle East saw a dramatic intensification of violence, raising the specter of a full-scale regional war. Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon and Iran’s missile attack on Israeli military sites unfolded as fighting in Gaza raged on, creating a volatile situation that threatens to drag more countries into the conflict. The rapid escalation has alarmed global powers, with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres warning of a “sickening cycle of escalation after escalation,” as diplomatic efforts struggle to ease tensions.
On Tuesday, Iran launched approximately 200 missiles at key Israeli military targets, marking its second direct military strike against Israel in 2024. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu swiftly condemned the attack, declaring that “Iran made a big mistake tonight and will pay for it.” Analysts widely agree that this attack is a turning point in the decades-long proxy struggle between the two nations, with the conflict now increasingly becoming a direct military confrontation.
David Khalfa, a Middle East expert at the Jean-Jaures Foundation in Paris, explained that the nature and scale of Iran’s attack had shifted the conflict to a new level, where Israel’s military response is all but guaranteed. “The fact that the targets have expanded to include sensitive military sites means Israel has little choice but to retaliate,” Khalfa said.
The first time Iran directly attacked Israel was in April, when it launched a mix of around 300 drones and missiles. Israel’s response then was measured, targeting a single Iranian air-defense radar. This time, however, Netanyahu is expected to opt for a far larger and more decisive retaliation, one that could provoke broader regional consequences.
With many Israelis celebrating the Jewish New Year this week, there are questions about the timing of Israel’s response. Some analysts have suggested that the holiday period may delay a full-scale retaliation, but Israeli officials are making it clear that a reprisal is coming. Danny Citrinowicz, an expert on Iran at Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), commented that while the timing may not be ideal, “I don’t think it will take much time” before Israel strikes back.
Some prominent voices in Israel, including former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, are calling for an all-out strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israel has long regarded Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat, with repeated warnings that it could seek to neutralize this threat through preemptive military action. However, these facilities are believed to be buried deep underground, limiting the effectiveness of conventional airstrikes.
The United States, under the leadership of President Joe Biden, has urged Israel to exercise restraint. Biden has advised Netanyahu to ensure that Israel’s response remains “proportionate,” though this advice has often been disregarded in the past. Despite this caution, reports suggest the Biden administration is engaged in ongoing discussions with Israel about possible strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure, a move that would have significant economic repercussions. Crude oil prices surged on Thursday in anticipation of heightened tensions impacting global supply chains.
The spiraling conflict between Israel and Iran is no longer a low-intensity confrontation, according to Khalfa. “This is now an open war, and it could evolve into a regional war of attrition,” he said. This fear is shared by many regional observers, especially given the already simmering hostilities involving Israeli forces in Gaza, Lebanon, and elsewhere in the Middle East.
Since Hamas’s brutal attack on southern Israel on October 7, Israel’s military focus has been heavily concentrated on Gaza, where it is battling to rescue over 90 hostages held by the Palestinian militant group. The war in Gaza has already claimed thousands of lives, with each side trading heavy artillery fire in densely populated civilian areas. Hamas, an Iranian-backed militant group, remains defiant in the face of Israeli airstrikes.
In Lebanon, the situation is equally tense. Israeli troops are now engaged in ground battles with Hezbollah militants, another Iran-backed group, following a series of airstrikes on Hezbollah positions. Hezbollah, which boasts a formidable arsenal of rockets and has extensive experience fighting Israel in past conflicts, poses a serious threat to Israel’s northern border. Many fear that a wider war with Hezbollah would draw Lebanon, a country already reeling from economic collapse, further into chaos.
Further afield, Israel is also facing an increase in missile and drone attacks from other Iranian allies, including the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Houthi forces have stepped up their attacks in solidarity with Hamas and Hezbollah, adding another layer of complexity to Israel’s military engagements.
Sima Shine, another Iran expert from INSS, emphasized the “undeniable” military capabilities that Iran and its allies can bring to bear. Iran, she said, can easily fire another 200 or even 300 missiles at Israel, as well as deploy drones for targeted strikes. She also warned of the possibility of “terrorist operations abroad,” which could involve attacks on Israeli diplomatic missions or Jewish community centers worldwide.
Despite the escalating violence, both Israel and Iran have repeatedly stated that they do not wish to engage in an all-out war. Nevertheless, as each retaliatory strike raises the stakes, the risk of miscalculation grows. Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy in Washington, observed that both Netanyahu and Iranian leaders are taking significant risks, which could lead to unintended and uncontrollable consequences. “Every escalation brings the region closer to a wider war,” Toossi said.
The United States and France, two major diplomatic players in the Middle East, may play a key role in preventing the conflict from spiraling further out of control. While the U.S. has considerable influence over Israel, and Biden continues to urge restraint, France’s position is particularly important in Lebanon. French President Emmanuel Macron has expressed concern over the situation in Lebanon and has worked behind the scenes to mediate between Israeli forces and Hezbollah.
Still, finding a political solution that satisfies both Israel and Iran may prove elusive. Israeli officials have argued that there is a “historic opportunity” to decisively deal with Iran’s regime, particularly in light of Tehran’s brazen missile attack. This sentiment has been echoed by hardliners in Netanyahu’s government, who believe that now is the time to strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities, even if the risks of doing so are great.
On the Iranian side, Tehran appears ready for a protracted confrontation. “Iran has already thought things through, to some extent at least,” said Citrinowicz. “They are ready for whatever comes next, and any Israeli retaliation will likely be met with a swift and severe response.”
As the Middle East teeters on the edge of a wider regional conflict, much depends on how Israel chooses to respond in the coming days. If Israel opts for a significant retaliatory strike against Iran, particularly one aimed at its nuclear infrastructure or oil industry, the region could be plunged into a war that draws in multiple countries, including Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia.
Alternatively, diplomatic efforts could manage to temporarily de-escalate the situation, though this seems increasingly difficult given the entrenched positions of both Israel and Iran. Both nations are aware of the potentially catastrophic consequences of a regional war, yet neither seems willing to back down.
For now, as bombs continue to fall in Gaza, Israeli troops battle Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iran prepares for further retaliation, the Middle East stands at a perilous crossroads. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether this volatile situation can be defused or whether the region is headed for a full-scale war that could reshape its geopolitical landscape for years to come.
The spiraling violence between Israel and Iran, coupled with the ongoing war in Gaza, is pushing the Middle East toward a dangerously uncertain future. With diplomatic efforts falling short and military action intensifying, the world watches nervously as the possibility of a broader, high-intensity conflict becomes more likely. If regional powers and global actors cannot find a way to de-escalate tensions soon, the consequences could be devastating, not only for the Middle East but for international peace and security as well.
