Bangladesh has recalled its envoy from New Delhi, marking a sharp downturn in the already strained relations between the two neighboring countries. This move is part of a broader reshuffle undertaken by Bangladesh’s interim government, which has also recalled four other envoys from key diplomatic postings in Australia, Belgium, and Portugal.
Amid this shifting diplomatic landscape, Bangladesh is also strengthening its ties with Pakistan—a move that has further complicated the region’s geopolitics. The National Board of Revenue (NBR) in Bangladesh recently announced the removal of mandatory physical inspections for goods imported from Pakistan, a policy change that highlights the improving trade relations between the two countries. However, this decision has sparked concerns over the potential facilitation of illegal arms and contraband transfers, a fear that resonates particularly in New Delhi.
The decision to recall Mustafizur Rahman, Bangladesh’s High Commissioner to India, comes at a time of heightened tensions. Rahman, along with four other senior diplomats, has been called back to Dhaka as part of the interim government’s broad reshuffle following the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The diplomats recalled include Muhammad Abdul Muhith, the Permanent Representative to the United Nations; M Allama Siddiqui, the High Commissioner to Australia; Mahbub Hassan Saleh, the Ambassador to Belgium; and Rezina Ahmed, the Ambassador to Portugal.
While diplomatic recalls are not uncommon during regime changes, this move has raised eyebrows, particularly in India, given the context of Bangladesh’s recent political turmoil. Sheikh Hasina, a long-standing ally of India, was forced to flee her country in August 2024 following a month-long violent student protest that culminated in her ouster. The Bangladesh Army swiftly moved in, announcing the formation of an interim government led by Nobel Laureate Mohammad Yunus.
Hasina, who had served as Bangladesh’s prime minister for over a decade across four terms, had been a linchpin in fostering strong ties between Bangladesh and India. Her sudden exit and the subsequent diplomatic shifts have left India grappling with a rapidly evolving situation in its eastern neighbor, one with potentially long-lasting implications for regional stability.
Sheikh Hasina’s ouster represents a significant setback for India in a region where it has been losing influence to China’s growing presence. For years, Hasina was seen as one of India’s most reliable allies in South Asia, helping to maintain a strategic equilibrium in a neighborhood fraught with anti-Indian sentiments. Her government facilitated cooperation on key security issues, including counter-terrorism efforts and border management.
However, the ouster of Hasina comes amid a broader regional realignment. Countries that were once considered close to India, such as Nepal, Sri Lanka, and now Bangladesh, have increasingly engaged with China, a global powerhouse with deep pockets and strategic interests in South Asia. For India, the ousting of Hasina is more than just the loss of a political ally; it is a blow to its long-term strategic goals.
India has always viewed Bangladesh as crucial to its geostrategic plans, especially in maintaining connectivity with its geographically isolated northeastern states. The two countries share over 4,000 km of land and maritime borders, and India has relied heavily on Bangladesh to facilitate access to the Bay of Bengal.
Nirupama Menon Rao, India’s former Foreign Secretary, reflected on the precarious situation following Hasina’s removal. “Today, as we see momentous happenings in Bangladesh and when the voice of the people has seen the flight of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from the country, we must weigh our reactions and policy moves with both caution and a capacity to think on our feet with agility, a clear focus, and foresight. We cannot afford any misstep. There are strategic dilemmas involved here,” she wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.
As India’s relationship with Bangladesh becomes increasingly fragile, Pakistan has been fostering stronger ties with Dhaka. The removal of mandatory physical inspections for goods imported from Pakistan is emblematic of this growing partnership. Previously, shipments from Pakistan were subjected to stringent inspections under the ‘Red Lane’—a high-risk classification that mandated both documentary reviews and physical examinations of goods. With this restriction now lifted, trade between the two nations is expected to become more streamlined.
The policy change followed a meeting between Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Bangladesh’s Chief Adviser, Dr. Muhammad Yunus, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York. The two leaders discussed ways to improve bilateral relations, focusing on enhancing trade and economic cooperation. Bangladesh imports a range of products from Pakistan, including cotton, yarn, chemicals, wheat, plastic materials, and petroleum products. In 2022-2023, Bangladesh’s imports from Pakistan amounted to $699 million, while exports to Pakistan stood at $74 million.
For Pakistan, this marks a significant step in improving ties with a country that once was part of its territory. Bangladesh, formerly known as East Pakistan, gained independence from Pakistan in 1971 following a bloody war of liberation. The two nations have since had a fraught relationship, but recent developments indicate a thawing of relations, particularly in the realm of trade.
However, this burgeoning relationship has not been without controversy. Indian analysts have voiced concerns that the easing of trade restrictions could facilitate the illegal transfer of arms and contraband between the two countries. Given the complex history between Pakistan and Bangladesh, particularly with respect to regional security issues, these concerns are not entirely unfounded.
Mohammad Yunus, the interim head of Bangladesh’s government, has publicly expressed his desire to improve ties with India. However, his stance on Sheikh Hasina remains a sticking point. Yunus has urged India to extradite Hasina so that she can face trial in Bangladesh, a request that New Delhi has so far been reluctant to entertain. Hasina fled to India in September after her military plane landed at Hindon Air Base, where she has remained since.
Yunus has also made it clear that Hasina should stay “quiet” until Bangladesh formally requests her extradition. Despite these comments, no bilateral meeting has been held between Yunus and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Efforts to organize such a meeting during Modi’s recent visit to the United States fell through, adding to the complexities of the diplomatic relationship between the two nations.
Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar did, however, meet with his Bangladeshi counterpart, Md. Touhid Hossain, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in late September. While the meeting was seen as a step toward mending ties, it has not been enough to allay concerns about the long-term stability of the relationship.
India’s strategic dilemma in dealing with the situation in Bangladesh has been further compounded by growing Chinese influence in the region. Over the past decade, China has made significant inroads into South Asia, providing infrastructure funding and military assistance to countries such as Nepal, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives. With Bangladesh now undergoing a political transition, India risks losing another ally to China’s growing sphere of influence.
For India, the loss of Hasina—a staunch ally—is a significant setback. However, New Delhi must tread carefully. Any perceived interference in Bangladesh’s internal affairs could backfire, further alienating the new interim government and pushing it closer to China or Pakistan.
India’s former foreign secretary Nirupama Rao has stressed the importance of agility and foresight in navigating these diplomatic waters. “Whatever we do, we must protect our long-term national interest,” she warned, underscoring the high stakes involved.
The recalling of Bangladesh’s envoy from India and the subsequent diplomatic reshuffle has further strained the already frayed ties between New Delhi and Dhaka. At the same time, Bangladesh’s growing closeness with Pakistan—evidenced by the easing of trade restrictions—adds another layer of complexity to the region’s geopolitics. As India grapples with these developments, it must carefully navigate its diplomatic strategy to safeguard its interests in South Asia. The road ahead is fraught with challenges, and any misstep could have long-lasting consequences for India’s position in the region.
