Mozambique, a nation strategically situated along the southern African coast and endowed with rich natural resources, is on the brink of a momentous election that could define its future. With presidential, parliamentary, and gubernatorial elections set for Wednesday, the political landscape is heating up as the ruling Frelimo party fields a new kind of candidate for the presidency. For the first time, Frelimo’s presidential hopeful, Daniel Chapo, was born after the country gained independence from Portuguese rule in 1975. This watershed election could mark the end of an era, as the generation of leaders forged during Mozambique’s independence war prepares to step down.
For nearly five decades, Frelimo, the party that led Mozambique to independence, has been the dominant political force, producing all of the country’s presidents. However, as President Filipe Nyusi prepares to step down after his second and final term, Frelimo is looking to rejuvenate its image by fielding 47-year-old Daniel Chapo. Chapo represents a significant generational shift; he is the first presidential candidate from Frelimo who was not directly involved in the country’s independence struggle against Portuguese rule.
Chapo, described as charismatic and energetic, has quickly risen through the ranks of the party. He served as a district administrator in 2011, later becoming governor of Inhambane Province in 2019, and most recently, Frelimo’s general secretary. His rapid ascent contrasts with the long and storied political careers of Frelimo’s previous leaders. Chapo draws large crowds to his campaign rallies and has adopted a populist tone, portraying himself as a fresh face untainted by the corruption that has dogged Frelimo for much of its rule.
“Brother Dan is honesty in person… He is the voice of hope we want to embrace… It’s time for change,” proclaims one of Chapo’s campaign songs, capturing the mood of his supporters, many of whom are tired of Frelimo’s long reign.
Chapo’s candidacy comes at a time when the Frelimo party’s reputation has been tarnished by the fallout from the 2016 “tuna bond” scandal. This scandal, involving secret loans secured by the government amounting to $2 billion, plunged Mozambique into its worst economic crisis since independence. The loans were purportedly for developing a state-owned tuna fishing fleet and maritime security, but much of the money disappeared, leaving the country grappling with unsustainable debt and soaring poverty levels.
President Nyusi’s government struggled to contain the political and economic damage from the scandal, which triggered protests and demands for greater transparency. The scandal has also undermined public trust in Frelimo, as accusations of corruption and mismanagement grew louder. Despite Nyusi’s efforts to distance himself from the scandal, the shadow of corruption looms large over Frelimo’s campaign.
Daniel Chapo is positioning himself as a reformer within the party, but he faces the uphill task of convincing voters that he can break with the corrupt practices of the past. Mirna Chitsungo, a human rights activist and journalist, remains skeptical. “If we have a degraded country, it is because of corruption,” she told the BBC. “He faces the challenge of promising to fight this evil while belonging to a party that, on a large scale, has perpetuated corruption.”
As Chapo prepares for his presidential bid, there are growing concerns over the integrity of the upcoming elections. Accusations of potential fraud are swirling, with a leading Mozambican non-governmental organization, Centro de Integridade Pública, alleging that about 5% of the names on the voters’ roll are fake. These so-called “ghost voters” — an estimated 900,000 — have sparked fears of vote rigging.
Mozambique analyst Joe Hanlon highlights the discrepancies, pointing out that “878,868 more voters were registered than there are voting age adults in some provinces.” These ghost voters are concentrated in seven key provinces, including Gaza Province, a Frelimo stronghold where one-third of registered voters are believed to be fake. The area has also seen high levels of outward migration, with many residents traveling to South Africa for work.
Despite these accusations, the election commission and Frelimo officials insist that the elections will be free and fair, denying any foul play. Chapo’s critics, however, argue that these irregularities could be part of a larger strategy to ensure Frelimo’s victory, should Chapo’s populist appeal fall short at the polls.
Chapo is not the only candidate in the race. He faces competition from three other presidential hopefuls, each offering their vision for Mozambique’s future. Among them is Venâncio Mondlane, an independent candidate who has captured the imagination of the youth with his slogan, “Save Mozambique — this country is ours.” Mondlane, a former banker who first made headlines when he ran for mayor of Maputo, has emerged as a serious contender, especially among younger voters.
Mondlane’s political journey has been marked by controversy. He ran in local elections last year under the banner of Renamo, Mozambique’s main opposition party, and many believed he won. However, allegations of vote rigging in favor of Frelimo’s candidate marred the result. Frustrated by the party’s leadership, Mondlane broke away from Renamo after its leader, Ossufo Momade, refused to step aside for him.
Mondlane’s campaign has struck a chord with many disillusioned voters, especially those who feel disconnected from the traditional political elites. “He [Mondlane] tries to explain to young voters that they should take pride in being Mozambican because conditions are there for them not to be poor or unemployed,” says political commentator Charles Mangwiro.
Ossufo Momade, 60, is running again as Renamo’s presidential candidate, having secured a peace deal with President Nyusi in 2019 that ended the long-running civil conflict between Renamo fighters and government forces. While Momade is widely respected for his role in securing peace, his leadership of Renamo has been challenged by Mondlane’s rise. Mondlane’s entry into the race could split the Renamo vote, potentially undermining Momade’s chances of victory.
Lutero Simango, representing the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM), is also in the race, promising to create jobs and reduce the cost of living by building more factories. Though Simango’s party is the third-largest in Mozambique, his candidacy is seen as a long shot compared to the more prominent figures in the race.
Recognizing the importance of the Mozambican diaspora in shaping the election, both Chapo and Mondlane have taken their campaigns to neighboring South Africa, home to a large community of Mozambican expatriates. Chapo hosted a fundraising banquet in Johannesburg, where he urged Mozambicans to vote for him at the embassy, describing his candidacy as a “unique opportunity” for renewal.
Similarly, Mondlane has reached out to Mozambicans in South Africa, visiting a fresh-produce market run by expatriates and promising to address the problems that led them to leave their homeland. Both candidates understand the strategic importance of winning over this key constituency, which remains connected to Mozambique despite living abroad.
While the economy and corruption dominate the political discourse, the ongoing insurgency in the northern province of Cabo Delgado has not been a central issue in the election campaign. Since 2017, jihadist attacks in Cabo Delgado have led to widespread displacement and disrupted lucrative liquefied natural gas projects in the region.
Rwandan and South African troops have been deployed to combat the insurgents, but violence continues to flare up. Ziyanda Stuurman, a political risk analyst at Eurasia Group, noted an “uptick in the frequency and severity of insurgent attacks” in recent months. Despite the ongoing violence, the insurgency has not been a major point of contention in the presidential race, with candidates instead focusing on economic recovery and job creation.
Regardless of who wins the presidency, the next leader will inherit a nation mired in deep poverty. With 62% of the population living in extreme poverty, on less than $1.90 a day, Mozambique’s economic future remains precarious. Creating jobs and fostering sustainable economic growth will be the key challenges for the incoming administration.
The final days of the campaign have seen all candidates making their last push to sway voters. Yet, with a wide-open race and the possibility of a split Renamo vote, the outcome of the election remains uncertain. “It’s too close to call,” says Mangwiro, summing up the unpredictability of a race that could redefine Mozambique’s political landscape.
As Mozambique heads to the polls, the nation stands at a crossroads. Will the voters embrace change in the form of Daniel Chapo, or will disillusionment with Frelimo’s rule push them towards an opposition candidate? What is certain is that Wednesday’s election will be a turning point, ushering in a new era for Mozambique.
