In the conflict in Ukraine and global military intelligence, Russia reportedly lost one of its few advanced S-70 Okhotnik (“Hunter”) combat drones in eastern Ukraine. The crash marks a significant blow for Moscow while presenting a potential intelligence windfall for Kyiv and its Western allies, including NATO and the United States.
The S-70 Okhotnik-B, one of Russia’s most advanced unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), appears to have crashed near Kostyantynivka in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, just miles behind the active front lines. Video footage circulating on social media on Saturday captured the moment the drone plummeted out of the sky, trailing smoke—an indication of potential damage to the aircraft before the crash.
Photos of the wreckage, taken shortly after the crash, confirmed suspicions that the downed aircraft was an S-70. However, as of now, neither Russian nor Ukrainian authorities have officially commented on the cause of the incident. Several theories have been floated, ranging from friendly fire to a loss of control by Russian drone operators.
According to reports from conflict analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), there are multiple unverified accounts about what might have led to the loss of the S-70. One theory, circulating widely on social media, claims the drone was accidentally shot down by a Russian Su-57 fighter jet in a friendly fire incident. Open-source intelligence channels have amplified this claim, suggesting that the S-70 was mistaken for a hostile aircraft in the heat of battle.
Other sources suggest a different scenario: the drone operators may have lost control of the aircraft and decided to shoot it down deliberately to prevent Ukraine from capturing sensitive technology. Given the S-70’s cutting-edge design and capabilities, losing control of the drone would have been a security nightmare for Russia.
As it stands, these theories remain speculative, with no official confirmation from either side. Nevertheless, the crash is a significant event in the ongoing conflict, especially considering the rarity of the S-70 Okhotnik drones.
The S-70 Okhotnik is no ordinary drone. Developed by Sukhoi and overseen by the Russian Ministry of Defense, the stealthy, jet-powered UCAV is designed to operate alongside Russia’s fifth-generation Su-57 fighter jets. Weighing around 20 tons with a wingspan of approximately 65 feet, the Okhotnik represents the cutting edge of Russia’s drone capabilities. Its development began in the early 2010s, with its first flight taking place in 2019.
The S-70 is believed to be capable of carrying a wide array of weapons, including air-to-ground missiles and bombs, making it a potentially lethal asset on the battlefield. Its design, which bears a striking resemblance to the US military’s RQ-170 Sentinel, emphasizes stealth and survivability in contested airspace. However, while the US has made strides in drone development over the past two decades, Russia has lagged behind in producing and fielding unmanned combat systems.
According to available information, Russia has only built a small number of these drones—likely fewer than five—making the loss of even one a severe setback for Moscow’s drone program. The combat debut of the S-70 during the war in Ukraine marked a key milestone for the Russian military, but this recent crash raises questions about the future of the program.
While the loss of the drone is a blow to Moscow, it could prove to be an intelligence coup for Ukraine and its NATO partners. Samuel Bendett, an expert on Russian drones and an advisor at the Center for Naval Analyses, told Business Insider that the crash represents a “significant win” for Western intelligence agencies.
“The S-70 Okhotnik has been Moscow’s flagship drone project for more than a decade,” Bendett explained. “Presumably it has top resources and investments, materials, and products, including microelectronics and other key components.”
If Ukrainian forces manage to recover intact or semi-intact components of the S-70, it could allow NATO’s intelligence agencies to gain valuable insights into Russia’s drone capabilities. This could include information about its stealth technology, avionics, weapons systems, and electronic warfare capabilities. Even small components like microchips or sensors could provide critical clues about how Russia is advancing its drone technology and how its systems can be countered.
According to Bendett, obtaining access to the wreckage could help Western nations develop more effective countermeasures against similar systems in the future. This is particularly valuable given the growing role drones play in modern warfare, from reconnaissance to airstrikes.
Russia’s development of the S-70 Okhotnik was seen as a necessary step to close the gap with the West, particularly the United States, which has maintained a significant lead in unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) technology. However, the war in Ukraine has shown that while expensive, high-tech drones like the S-70 have their place, they are far from the only option on the battlefield.
In fact, much of the drone warfare in Ukraine has been conducted with mass-produced, relatively inexpensive drones, such as the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 or even commercial drones adapted for military use. These platforms, while less advanced than the S-70, have proven highly effective in reconnaissance and precision-strike roles, often at a fraction of the cost of heavier systems like the Okhotnik.
This creates a dilemma for Moscow: Should Russia continue to invest heavily in the S-70 program, which could be vulnerable to further losses, or should it pivot toward developing cheaper, long-range attack drones that can be produced in larger quantities? According to Bendett, this is a key question facing Russia’s military leadership.
“The S-70 was intended to perform high-risk missions in contested airspace, tasks that cheaper drones are not necessarily designed for,” Bendett said. “But given the cost and the small number of Okhotnik drones in existence, losing even one is a major setback.”
Both Ukraine and Russia have increasingly turned to drones as crucial tools in their military strategies. For Ukraine, drones like the Bayraktar TB2 have proven invaluable in hitting Russian convoys, artillery positions, and supply depots. Ukrainian forces have also used drones to gather intelligence on Russian troop movements, allowing for more effective targeting of enemy positions.
On the Russian side, drones have been used for similar purposes, from intelligence gathering to precision airstrikes. However, Russia’s reliance on less sophisticated drones has limited its ability to control the skies as effectively as it might have hoped. The introduction of the S-70 Okhotnik into the conflict was seen as a step toward rectifying that imbalance, providing Russia with a more capable platform for high-stakes missions.
The loss of one of these drones, however, may hinder Moscow’s ability to deploy such advanced systems in the near future. Additionally, the crash could force Russia to reassess its overall drone strategy in the war, especially if the theories about friendly fire or operator error prove to be true.
Russia’s S-70 program was always viewed as a long-term project, with the potential to revolutionize its military drone capabilities. But the recent crash highlights the risks involved in deploying such high-tech systems in active conflict zones, particularly when those systems are still relatively new and untested.
Despite the setback, it’s unlikely that Moscow will abandon the S-70 program entirely. The drone represents a key component of Russia’s efforts to modernize its military and remain competitive with other world powers. However, given the expense involved in producing such systems and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Russia may need to recalibrate its approach to drone warfare in the months and years ahead.
The crash of the S-70 Okhotnik serves as a stark reminder of the complexities of modern warfare, where advanced technology can sometimes be as much a liability as an asset. For Ukraine and its allies, the incident offers a unique opportunity to study and understand one of Russia’s most important military projects, potentially shaping the future of drone warfare on a global scale.
