In recent years, Taiwan has faced mounting pressure from China, which is steadily escalating its military presence around the island. Many observers describe China’s approach as reminiscent of the predatory tactics of an anaconda, a snake that patiently waits to strike its prey. This so-called “Anaconda Strategy” involves gradually tightening control, with the ultimate goal of exhausting Taiwan’s defenses until the island is forced into submission.
The strategy focuses on psychological, economic, and military coercion, designed to choke Taiwan into capitulation without the need for direct invasion. While not a single strike, the strategy’s various elements—cyber warfare, economic blockades, information warfare, and military exercises—are meant to exhaust the island’s resources and willpower, isolating it from its allies and eventually suffocating its independence.
Chinese military activities around Taiwan have been steadily increasing over the past few years, according to the Taiwanese government. Admiral Tang Hua, Taiwan’s navy commander, has repeatedly warned that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is ramping up its presence near the island, suggesting that the country could be blockaded at any time.
“The PLA is using an ‘anaconda strategy’ to squeeze the island,” Admiral Tang said in a recent interview. “They are slowly but surely increasing their presence, and they are ready to blockade Taiwan at any moment.”
Statistics support Tang’s assessment. The number of PLA air incursions across the median line in the Taiwan Strait—a de facto border between Taiwan and China—has spiked dramatically. In January 2024, there were 36 air incursions, but by August, the figure had soared to 193. PLA ships operating near Taiwan also increased from 142 to 282 in the same time period, with many now operating right along Taiwan’s contiguous zone, only 24 nautical miles off the island’s coast. What’s more, these vessels are staying longer, patrolling for days rather than mere hours as before.
China’s war games have also grown in sophistication, becoming large-scale exercises that simulate real-world combat scenarios such as blockades and amphibious assaults. In one of the most recent exercises, Joint Sword-2024A, the China Coast Guard (CCG) participated in joint operations with the PLA for the first time, a clear indication that China’s military maneuvers are evolving. The joint exercises have also featured China’s most advanced military hardware, including aircraft carriers, destroyers, and ballistic missiles.
During the May 2024 drills, China deployed 111 aircraft and 46 naval vessels to areas surrounding Taiwan, with 82 aircraft crossing the median line and some coming within 24 nautical miles of Taiwan’s coast. The array of military platforms involved, such as the J-20 and J-16 fighter jets, Type 052D destroyers, and Dong Feng ballistic missiles, indicates the seriousness of China’s preparations.
China’s Anaconda Strategy is not limited to displays of military power. It also involves cyber warfare, disinformation campaigns, and the economic isolation of Taiwan. Under this strategy, China could use a combination of cyberattacks and economic blockades to destabilize Taiwan without resorting to a full-scale invasion. This concept emerged after China’s plans to take control of Taiwan were thwarted by the arrival of U.S. aircraft carriers in the Taiwan Strait during the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis.
Rather than attacking Taiwan directly, China could deploy cyberattacks to paralyze critical infrastructure, isolating the island from the outside world by disrupting its communications, energy supplies, and economy. A report by the Washington-based think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) echoes this concern. Researcher Dean Karalekas explains that while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led Taiwan to boost its military preparations, these efforts may not be effective in countering China’s strategy.
“Unlike the kinetic warfare seen in Ukraine, Taiwan is more likely to be cut off from essential supplies of energy, food, and other imports,” the FDD report said. “Once key routes are blocked, Taiwan may face an energy crisis. Even though the island is developing green energy, these facilities could easily become targets during a conflict, making it difficult to maintain a stable power supply.”
Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, a vital cog in the global tech supply chain, is another critical factor in the Anaconda Strategy. Admiral Karambir Singh, former Indian Navy Chief, noted that China’s ambitions might be curtailed if the U.S., Japan, South Korea, and other global powers step in to defend Taiwan. “If the world stands up to oppose China, Beijing will have a tough time executing its plan. Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is crucial to the global economy, and this makes Taiwan essential to the world,” Singh said.
Military exercises around Taiwan have been a cornerstone of China’s strategy since the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) came to power in Taiwan in 2016. China views the DPP as pro-independence and has ramped up military pressure to test Taiwan’s defenses and intimidate its leaders.
According to a study by the Global Taiwan Institute, the frequency and scale of China’s military drills have significantly increased in recent years. These drills serve a dual purpose: to unnerve the Taiwanese population and demonstrate China’s capabilities to the U.S. and Japan, which may intervene if a Taiwan crisis escalates. Chinese military exercises are often timed to coincide with important political events in Taiwan, such as visits by foreign dignitaries or statements from the Taiwanese government that Beijing finds provocative. For example, when then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022, China responded with one of the largest military drills in recent history.
The latest drills, coinciding with the inauguration of Taiwan’s new president William Lai Ching-te in May 2024, involved all branches of the PLA. These joint exercises have increasingly become a platform for China to showcase its joint combat capabilities, focusing on realistic scenarios like blockades and amphibious assaults. As Chinese patrols grow more frequent and draw closer to Taiwan’s borders, the psychological impact on the Taiwanese population cannot be understated.
With the situation growing more tense, Taiwan’s government has started managing the flow of information to the public in an effort to maintain morale. Since 2020, Taiwan’s defense ministry has published daily updates on PLA air and naval activity around the island, including maps showing the locations of Chinese warplanes. However, more recently, the information provided to the public has become less detailed. For instance, the types of ships and aircraft involved are no longer specified, nor are the locations or durations of Chinese patrols.
This shift in communication reflects a careful balancing act. On one hand, Taiwan needs to keep its population informed and prepared for potential conflict. On the other hand, too much information about China’s aggressive moves could lead to panic or feelings of helplessness.
China’s Anaconda Strategy is not just a psychological battle; it is also physically straining Taiwan’s military resources. Taiwan’s navy, in particular, has been stretched thin by the need to respond to China’s frequent military exercises. For every Chinese drill, Taiwan must deploy between 25% to 50% of its combat vessels, and the pace of these deployments is beginning to take its toll. A recent government audit found that more than half of Taiwan’s main warships have fallen behind on regular maintenance due to the increased demand on the fleet.
China’s navy has far greater resources. The Chinese navy boasts twice as many frigates and ten times as many destroyers as Taiwan. This disparity means that, over time, Taiwan’s navy could be worn down, leaving the island more vulnerable to China’s encirclement strategy.
China’s Anaconda Strategy is a long-term approach designed to squeeze Taiwan into submission without the need for an all-out military assault. By increasing military pressure, engaging in psychological warfare, and preparing for economic isolation, China is employing a multi-pronged strategy to gradually weaken Taiwan’s defenses and morale.
The strategy hinges on patience and the relentless application of pressure, much like the anaconda’s method of constricting its prey until it can no longer breathe. Taiwan, with the help of its allies, must find ways to resist the tightening grip, whether through bolstering its military capabilities, securing its critical infrastructure, or maintaining its role as an essential player in the global economy. The question remains: how long can Taiwan hold out before the anaconda’s grip becomes too tight?
