On October 7, Ani Badalyan, the spokesperson for Armenia’s Foreign Ministry, once again pressed Azerbaijan to engage in mutual arms control measures in an effort to reduce ongoing tensions between the two countries. However, Azerbaijan has yet to formally respond to this initiative, despite Armenia’s consistent proposals.
Badalyan emphasized that Yerevan has been persistent in seeking diplomatic solutions to the arms race, noting that Armenia’s defense acquisitions are solely intended for self-defense. Speaking to Armenpress, she stressed that Armenia has no offensive military agenda and that Azerbaijan’s avoidance of discussions on arms control is counterproductive.
“Armenia has repeatedly offered Azerbaijan, and continues to offer, to create mutual weapons control mechanisms,” Badalyan said. “However, Azerbaijan has chosen to leave these proposals unanswered, all while escalating its aggressive rhetoric against Armenia.”
The call for mutual arms control follows remarks made by Aykhan Hajizade, the spokesperson for Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry, on October 5. Hajizade labeled Armenia’s defense initiatives as “dangerous,” reflecting Baku’s view that Yerevan’s military procurements contribute to regional instability.
From Azerbaijan’s perspective, Armenia’s increasing military expenditures are viewed as part of a broader militarization effort, despite Armenia’s insistence that its intentions are purely defensive. This narrative has further entrenched a mutual distrust that has been growing since the end of the Second Karabakh War in 2020.
Badalyan challenged these accusations by urging an objective comparison of military expenditures between the two nations. “If we compare the military expenditures of Armenia and Azerbaijan, in both absolute numbers and proportions of weapons obtained, it will be clear who is truly engaged in mass militarization,” she stated.
Armenia continues to emphasize that its main objective is peace and stability in the region, while it views Azerbaijan’s refusal to engage in arms control as a sign of aggression.
The call for arms control comes amid stalled efforts to negotiate a long-term peace agreement between the two neighbors. In July 2023, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that about 80-90% of the peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan was complete. However, the primary roadblock to finalizing the deal has been Armenia’s perceived territorial claims against Azerbaijan, particularly concerning Nagorno-Karabakh.
While the two nations signed an agreement on August 30, 2023, to facilitate border delimitation, experts remain cautious about whether a peace deal would lead to lasting stability. Many observers argue that any agreement would likely only serve as a temporary measure, without resolving the underlying historical and geopolitical grievances that have fueled the conflict for decades.
The Second Karabakh War, which erupted in 2020, dramatically shifted the balance of power between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan launched a large-scale military offensive, reclaiming seven districts and approximately one-third of Nagorno-Karabakh, a territory that had been under Armenian control since the early 1990s. The 44-day war ended in a decisive Azerbaijani victory, solidifying its strategic and military dominance in the region.
In the aftermath, both Armenia and Azerbaijan have ramped up their defense budgets. Armenia’s military spending, for example, grew from $669 million in 2020 to $1.4 billion in 2024, with plans to increase it further in the coming years. Azerbaijan’s defense expenditures have similarly skyrocketed, rising from $2.2 billion in 2020 to $3.7 billion in 2024. These figures illustrate the rapid militarization in both countries, despite Armenia’s consistent claims of a defensive posture.
Historically, Armenia has relied on Russia as its primary supplier of military equipment. However, since the 2020 war, Armenia has grown frustrated with delayed arms deliveries from Moscow, despite payments already being made. This has pushed Yerevan to diversify its defense partnerships.
France has emerged as one of Armenia’s new suppliers. In November 2023, Paris delivered 24 Bastion armored vehicles to Armenia, and more deliveries are expected. In early 2024, French newspaper Le Figaro reported that France would supply Armenia with advanced GM 200 radars and night vision equipment. The GM 200 radar system, designed to detect and track multiple targets, represents a significant technological upgrade for Armenia, especially in countering drone threats—a vulnerability highlighted during the 2020 war.
Armenia’s collaboration with India has also deepened. Since 2021, India has provided Armenia with Swathi radars and $250 million worth of arms, including Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers. In September 2023, Armenia acquired six 155mm ATAGS howitzers from India, and further deliveries are anticipated. This growing defense relationship includes Armenia’s acquisition of the Akash surface-to-air missile system and the Zen anti-drone system, which will enhance its ability to counter aerial threats.
While Armenia has diversified its defense procurement, Azerbaijan has further strengthened its military ties with Turkey and Israel, two of its closest allies. In 2021, Azerbaijan signed the Shushi Declaration with Turkey, committing to mutual defense. This partnership has facilitated Azerbaijan’s acquisition of advanced Turkish drones, which were instrumental in its 2020 victory.
In February 2024, Azerbaijan unveiled the Bayraktar Akinci drone, a more advanced version of the Bayraktar TB2 used in the 2020 conflict. Additionally, Azerbaijan has continued to benefit from its strategic relationship with Israel. Between 2016 and 2023, at least 92 Azerbaijani cargo planes reportedly landed at Israel’s Ovda Air Base, underscoring the deep military cooperation between the two countries.
In November 2023, Azerbaijan signed a $1.2 billion deal with Israel to acquire the Barak MX air defense system. Furthermore, in March 2024, Azerbaijan reportedly purchased the Sky Dew aerostat system from Israel, though details remain unconfirmed.
Azerbaijan has also sought to enhance its aerial capabilities through a $1.6 billion deal with Pakistan for JF-17 Block-III fighter jets. This contract includes not only the aircraft but also armament and training, signaling Azerbaijan’s ongoing efforts to modernize its military.
The escalating arms race between Armenia and Azerbaijan raises significant concerns for regional stability. While Armenia seeks to portray its military procurement as defensive, Azerbaijan’s expanding capabilities, bolstered by key alliances, have increased the likelihood of future hostilities.
The South Caucasus remains a region of intense geopolitical competition, with neighboring powers such as Russia, Turkey, and Iran also playing crucial roles in shaping the dynamics between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The lack of meaningful dialogue on arms control only exacerbates the tensions, potentially setting the stage for further conflict.
As of now, Azerbaijan’s silence on Armenia’s arms control proposals suggests that Baku sees little incentive to limit its military growth. This reluctance, combined with both countries’ expanding arsenals, presents a formidable challenge to any hope for a peaceful resolution.
Experts warn that even if Armenia and Azerbaijan manage to sign a peace agreement in the near future, it may only serve as a temporary respite from a conflict that has deep historical roots. The mutual distrust and the ongoing arms race have created an environment where diplomacy may struggle to gain traction.
Nevertheless, Armenia’s continued calls for arms control and dialogue indicate a desire to shift the region away from militarization and toward a more stable and peaceful future. Whether Azerbaijan will eventually engage with these initiatives remains to be seen.
The next steps taken by both Armenia and Azerbaijan will likely determine whether the South Caucasus moves toward peace or sinks further into conflict. The international community’s role in facilitating dialogue and encouraging disarmament could be crucial in shaping the outcome of this ongoing dispute.
