China has once again ramped up military pressure on Taiwan, launching large-scale military exercises for the second time this year. Dubbed “Joint Sword 2024B,” these drills come just days after Taiwanese President William Lai delivered his first National Day speech on October 10. Beijing’s message is clear: the exercises are not just a show of force, but a simulation of a full-scale attack on Taiwan, underscoring the heightened tensions over the island’s sovereignty.
The drills follow months of similar provocations by China, and occur mere weeks after Lai was sworn in as president in January 2024. The Joint Sword 2024A exercises, conducted during Lai’s first week in office, were described by Beijing as a “punishment” for what it perceives as “separatist” acts by Taiwan’s leadership.
At the heart of these escalations is the ongoing dispute over Taiwan’s status—a conflict that has remained unresolved for more than seven decades. While Beijing views Taiwan as a breakaway province that must eventually reunify with the mainland, by force if necessary, many Taiwanese see themselves as citizens of a separate, self-governing nation. The majority of Taiwan’s people, however, are in favor of maintaining the status quo, avoiding outright independence from China while resisting reunification.
History of Taiwan
Taiwan’s history is complex, and its sovereignty is deeply contested. The island’s first known inhabitants were Austronesian tribal people believed to have migrated from what is now southern China. Historical Chinese records first mentioned the island in AD 239, when an emperor sent an expeditionary force to explore it—a fact that Beijing often cites to bolster its territorial claim over Taiwan.
The island’s strategic importance became clear over time. After a brief period as a Dutch colony in the 17th century, Taiwan came under the control of China’s Qing dynasty. However, it was ceded to Japan in 1895 after China’s defeat in the First Sino-Japanese War. Japan ruled the island until the end of World War II, after which it relinquished control, and Taiwan was officially considered occupied by the Republic of China (ROC), which governed the island with the support of the U.S. and the U.K.
Yet the modern political rift over Taiwan began in the aftermath of China’s civil war. In 1949, Chiang Kai-shek’s Kuomintang (KMT) forces, having lost the war to Mao Zedong’s Communist Party, retreated to Taiwan. Chiang’s government-in-exile initially claimed to represent all of China, vowing to eventually reclaim the mainland.
For decades, the ROC was recognized as the legitimate government of China by many countries and held China’s seat at the United Nations Security Council. However, as Beijing began to assert its power on the world stage, the tide shifted. In 1971, the UN formally recognized the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and the ROC lost its seat. The United States followed suit in 1979, establishing diplomatic ties with Beijing and formally recognizing the “One China” policy—acknowledging Beijing as the sole government of China, while maintaining unofficial relations with Taiwan.
Today, only 12 countries officially recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation, largely due to diplomatic pressure from Beijing. Despite this, Taiwan functions as a fully self-governing democracy, complete with its own constitution, elected leaders, and military forces.
The Growing Divide: Taiwan’s Path to Democracy and China’s Aggressive Claims
The political trajectory of Taiwan has widened the gap between the island and the mainland. Following Chiang Kai-shek’s death in 1975, Taiwan began transitioning to democracy in the 1980s, holding its first direct presidential elections in 1996. While earlier KMT governments still harbored hopes of retaking the mainland, this stance has gradually softened. In the meantime, China has consistently promoted its “one country, two systems” model—a proposal that would allow Taiwan some autonomy while still being under Beijing’s control, a framework similar to what was used to reintegrate Hong Kong in 1997.
However, Taiwan has rejected this model, particularly in light of recent events in Hong Kong, where Beijing has steadily eroded the region’s political freedoms. The island’s populace is increasingly wary of any agreement that might lead to a loss of autonomy or democratic governance.
Relations between China and Taiwan hit a significant low point in 2000 when Chen Shui-bian, leader of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), was elected president. The DPP openly advocates for Taiwan’s independence, an ideology that Beijing sees as a direct threat. China responded by passing an anti-secession law in 2005, which effectively gave it the legal justification to use military force if Taiwan ever declared independence.
Chen’s presidency was followed by a period of closer relations under KMT leadership, but the election of Tsai Ing-wen from the DPP in 2016 saw a sharp deterioration in cross-strait relations. Tsai has never formally declared Taiwan’s independence, but her refusal to endorse Beijing’s “One China” principle has stoked China’s ire. Under President Xi Jinping, Chinese rhetoric has become more aggressive, with Xi repeatedly stating that “reunification” with Taiwan is inevitable. He has even set 2049— the centenary of the People’s Republic—as the deadline for achieving this goal.
William Lai’s Presidency and China’s Hostile Response
In January 2024, Taiwan elected William Lai as president, marking a continuation of DPP leadership. Lai, who served as vice president under Tsai, has been a staunch advocate for Taiwan’s self-governance. Beijing wasted no time in labeling him a “separatist” and “the worst DPP president yet.” China’s Joint Sword 2024A drills, conducted just days after Lai took office, were described as a direct response to his leadership.
The subsequent Joint Sword 2024B exercises, launched just days after Lai’s National Day speech, have only heightened concerns of an impending military confrontation. In his speech, Lai reiterated his commitment to maintaining Taiwan’s self-governing status, a stance that Beijing views as intolerable. The drills, which simulate a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, serve as a stark reminder of the fragile status quo between the island and the mainland.
The United States: Strategic Ambiguity and Military Support
The United States remains the most significant international actor in this geopolitical struggle. While the U.S. officially recognizes Beijing as the legitimate government of China, it continues to be Taiwan’s most important ally. The U.S. is bound by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 to provide the island with defensive weapons, and President Joe Biden has gone further by stating on several occasions that the U.S. would defend Taiwan militarily if it were attacked by China. This represents a shift from the long-standing U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity,” which deliberately left unclear whether the U.S. would intervene in the event of a Chinese attack.
Washington’s support for Taiwan has drawn the ire of Beijing on multiple occasions. In 2022, following a controversial visit to Taiwan by then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, China launched unprecedented military exercises around the island. The number of Chinese warplane incursions into Taiwan’s air defense zone has also surged, reflecting Beijing’s growing willingness to engage in “grey zone warfare.”
Despite these provocations, the U.S. continues to deepen its unofficial ties with Taiwan, providing military support and maintaining high-level political exchanges. The island remains one of the most contentious issues in U.S.-China relations, and the outcome of Taiwan’s elections will have profound implications for the future of these relationships.
What Lies Ahead: A Dangerous Brinkmanship
As China’s military drills continue to escalate, Taiwan finds itself at the center of a geopolitical struggle with global implications. The results of the 2024 election have only intensified Beijing’s hostility toward Taipei, with William Lai’s presidency symbolizing a further step away from reunification. For China, the island represents an integral part of its national identity and historical territory, while for many Taiwanese, it is a separate, sovereign state.
With the U.S. signaling an increasing willingness to defend Taiwan, the region is fast becoming a flashpoint for potential conflict between two global superpowers. As the world watches, the delicate balance between Taiwan, China, and the U.S. teeters on the edge of uncertainty—any miscalculation could lead to devastating consequences for the entire region.
For now, Taiwan’s status remains one of the most precarious and fiercely contested issues in international politics, and the drills surrounding its coastline serve as an ever-present reminder of the fragility of peace in the Taiwan Strait.
