China’s People’s Liberation Army-Air Force (PLAAF) has aggressively expanded its fleet of J-20 stealth fighters, positioning the country as a formidable competitor to the United States in the realm of fifth-generation air superiority. The rapid development of the J-20, a fighter designed to rival the US’s F-35 and F-22 Raptor, represents a significant shift in the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region. New technologies, including domestic engine development and advanced avionics, have made the J-20 a credible force in modern aerial warfare.
As China advances its military capabilities, the United States is grappling with rising costs, modernization delays, and internal debates about the future of air dominance. The question looming large is whether the US can maintain its edge as China continues to narrow the technological gap.
According to a recent report by defense analysis firm Janes, China has significantly increased the size of its J-20 stealth fighter fleet, a development that could potentially tip the scales of air power in the Pacific. As of May 2024, 12 air brigades in the PLAAF are equipped with J-20 fighters, marking a sharp increase from the mere 40 aircraft operational in early 2022. This expansion has been largely verified through satellite imagery, which shows over 70 new J-20 fighters have been inducted into service in just the past year.
This rapid scaling up of the J-20 fleet underscores China’s growing military ambitions, particularly in regions like the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and the broader Western Pacific. As these fighters enter operational status across key theater commands, they represent a critical element in China’s strategy to project power beyond its immediate borders, enhancing its ability to challenge US military presence and regional allies like Japan and South Korea.
The J-20’s role is not just defensive. Its deployment indicates a focus on power projection, with the PLAAF seeking to assert greater control over contested areas and potentially dominate the airspace in the event of conflict. The shift from older models like the J-11 and Su-27 to the cutting-edge J-20, powered by increasingly sophisticated domestic engines, signals China’s determination to become self-reliant and reduce its historical dependence on Russian technology.
One of the most significant advancements in the J-20 program is the integration of domestically produced WS-15 engines. Historically, China’s aerospace industry struggled with the production of high-performance jet engines, relying on Russian engines to power its aircraft. However, recent developments suggest that this technological gap is closing fast. According to reports from Asia Times in July 2023, the WS-15 engines boast a thrust rating in the range of 150 kilonewtons, comparable to the US-made F-22’s Pratt & Whitney F119 engines.
The integration of these engines marks a pivotal moment for the PLAAF, enhancing the speed, range, and overall combat effectiveness of the J-20. With this newfound capability, the J-20 can operate more independently and effectively, especially in extended combat operations. The development of these engines also enhances China’s military self-sufficiency, reducing its vulnerability to external supply chain disruptions.
Moreover, the J-20 is equipped with advanced avionics, including a wide-band, active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar system that is comparable to the F-22’s highly regarded APG-77 radar. This system allows the J-20 to track multiple targets at once while maintaining a low radar signature, a critical feature for stealth operations. The incorporation of advanced datalinks further enhances the J-20’s capabilities, allowing secure and efficient communication across China’s air forces, ensuring seamless coordination in combat scenarios.
The expansion of China’s J-20 fleet comes at a time when the US and its regional allies are grappling with their own military challenges. The Janes report warns that this rapid increase in J-20 fighters could spur an arms race in the Asia-Pacific, prompting countries like Japan, South Korea, and Australia to accelerate their own fifth- and sixth-generation fighter programs.
Already, Japan has announced plans to develop its own next-generation fighter, the F-X, a project that aims to enter service by the mid-2030s. South Korea, meanwhile, is progressing with its KF-21 Boramae program, with the aim of producing an indigenous multirole fighter that can operate alongside US-built platforms. As these countries boost their air capabilities, defense budgets across the region are likely to swell, further intensifying military spending and competition in the Pacific.
For the US, the growing presence of the J-20 poses a direct challenge to its air dominance. Although the US currently fields a larger fleet of stealth fighters, with approximately 630 F-35s in service and plans to acquire about 1,800 more, the rising costs and delays associated with the F-35 program are cause for concern.
While China is rapidly scaling up its J-20 production, the US is struggling with the high costs and delays that have plagued its F-35 program. The F-35, which is the most advanced fifth-generation fighter in the US arsenal, has seen its sustainment costs skyrocket from $1.1 trillion in 2018 to $1.58 trillion in 2023. These rising costs are partly due to efforts to extend the aircraft’s service life through 2088 and improve its long-term operational capabilities.
Despite reaching full-rate production, the F-35 program has encountered numerous setbacks. The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) reported in May 2024 that modernization efforts, including critical upgrades to the aircraft’s radar and engine systems, have been delayed due to software issues and unclear power and cooling requirements. These delays not only impact the program’s timelines but also raise questions about the aircraft’s readiness in the event of conflict.
Efforts to reduce costs have been made, including improvements in parts reliability and maintainability, which have saved an estimated $84 billion. However, challenges persist. Slow repair times continue to reduce the availability of F-35s for missions, and the US Air Force and Navy have both cut their planned annual flying hours to meet affordability targets. This reduction in flying hours could have long-term consequences for pilot proficiency, which relies on consistent flight time to maintain combat readiness.
Reduced flight hours and operational costs have become a significant issue for the US military. In September 2022, Asia Times reported that the US combat air forces were already 12 squadrons short of the number required for full operational capability. This shortage is particularly acute in the Pacific, where only 11 of the 13 required fighter squadrons are currently stationed.
Moreover, reduced flying hours may affect the skill levels of US pilots. To maintain proficiency, a fighter pilot typically needs around 200 hours of flight time per year and three to four practice sorties per week. However, with the cuts in flight hours, many pilots are now flying only one or two sorties per week, leading to a potential erosion of critical combat skills over time.
Faced with the growing capabilities of China’s J-20 fleet, the US must decide how to maintain its air dominance in the Pacific. One option is to double down on sixth-generation fighter technology through the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, which aims to develop a replacement for the aging F-22 fleet.
However, the NGAD program faces its own set of challenges. Costs for NGAD are projected to be around $300 million per aircraft, making it one of the most expensive fighter programs in history. In addition, the US Air Force has increasingly shifted its focus toward unmanned systems and other emerging technologies, which could reduce the emphasis on traditional crewed fighters like NGAD.
This shift reflects a broader debate within the US military about the future of air superiority. Some argue that the US should prioritize cost-effective solutions, such as light fighters, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and space-based systems, over investing in expensive sixth-generation fighters. Others believe that only cutting-edge, crewed fighters like NGAD can ensure the US retains its competitive edge in high-intensity conflicts.
China’s growing fleet of J-20 stealth fighters, backed by advanced domestic technologies and a robust defense budget, represents a significant challenge to US air dominance in the Asia-Pacific. As China narrows the technological gap and accelerates its military buildup, the US faces tough choices about how to respond.
Whether through the development of sixth-generation fighters or more cost-effective alternatives, the US must navigate rising costs and modernization delays if it hopes to maintain its air superiority in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. The arms race in the Pacific is heating up, and the balance of air power is shifting, with China’s J-20 program emerging as a central player in the future of aerial warfare.
