India and Canada have reached an unprecedented low as both countries expelled each other’s top diplomats, escalating a row over the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a prominent Sikh separatist leader. The ongoing tension between the two nations, once marked by amicable ties, has now plunged into open confrontation—a first in their long-standing relationship. This unprecedented diplomatic fallout not only revives historical grievances but also signals a potentially long-lasting shift in bilateral relations.
Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh leader based in Canada, was gunned down in June 2023 in British Columbia. Nijjar had been a vocal supporter of the Khalistan movement, which advocates for the creation of an independent Sikh homeland in India’s Punjab state. India had labelled him a terrorist, citing his alleged involvement in extremist activities related to the separatist cause. His assassination has become a flashpoint, leading to serious allegations from Canadian authorities.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau claimed that the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) were investigating possible involvement of Indian government agents in Nijjar’s murder. He further asserted that Canadian police had uncovered evidence of Indian intelligence agencies’ involvement not only in the assassination but also in a series of “violent acts” against pro-Khalistan activists in Canada.
India categorically rejected these allegations as “preposterous,” with its foreign ministry issuing a sharp rebuke. The tit-for-tat expulsions of top diplomats followed Trudeau’s announcement, marking the most significant escalation in the dispute to date. Both countries have justified these expulsions as necessary, but the diplomatic crisis points to deep-rooted issues that have been simmering for decades.
This is not the first time the India-Canada relationship has faced significant strain. In 1974, India shocked the world by detonating its first nuclear device, “Smiling Buddha.” The test drew ire from Canada, which accused India of diverting plutonium from a Canadian-supplied reactor meant for peaceful purposes. The fallout from this incident led Canada to suspend cooperation on India’s atomic energy program, causing a significant chill in relations.
However, despite the nuclear standoff, neither country had resorted to expelling top diplomats, indicating that the current crisis represents an unprecedented low. What makes today’s tensions particularly unique is the involvement of a diaspora community—the Canadian Sikhs—and the re-emergence of the Khalistan movement, a sensitive issue that has long troubled India.
Sikh separatism, though rooted in India’s Punjab region, found fertile ground abroad—especially in countries with significant Sikh populations like Canada. The Khalistan movement gained momentum in the 1980s during a violent insurgency in India, but was largely quelled by the early 1990s. However, the movement still has a vocal base of supporters in Canada, where approximately 770,000 Sikhs reside, making it home to the largest Sikh diaspora outside India.
For India, the presence of pro-Khalistan groups on Canadian soil remains a pressing security concern. Indian authorities have consistently criticized Canada for allegedly turning a blind eye to these groups, claiming that their activities pose a threat to India’s sovereignty and unity. In contrast, Canada frames the issue as one of free speech, with activists in support of Khalistan seen as expressing their democratic right to dissent.
This fundamental disagreement—whether pro-Khalistan activism is terrorism or free expression—lies at the heart of the current crisis.
The timing of these allegations and diplomatic expulsions has fueled speculation about domestic political considerations in both countries, particularly in Canada. With national elections scheduled for 2025, Trudeau’s popularity has been slipping. A recent Ipsos poll suggests that only 28% of Canadians believe Trudeau deserves re-election, with support for his Liberal Party dropping to 26%. Critics argue that Trudeau may be attempting to shore up support by taking a strong stance on foreign policy, especially among the influential Sikh community, which holds significant sway in key electoral battlegrounds.
Sikhs in Canada, despite constituting only about 2% of the population, wield considerable political power. Fifteen Sikh-Canadian lawmakers currently sit in the House of Commons, and Trudeau once boasted that his cabinet included more Sikhs than that of India’s own Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. However, Trudeau’s balancing act with the Sikh community may alienate other segments of Canada’s Indian-origin population, particularly Hindus and non-Punjabi immigrants, who are less sympathetic to the Khalistan cause and more supportive of India’s economic rise.
India, in response, has accused Trudeau of playing “vote bank politics,” asserting that his government’s stance is driven more by domestic electoral considerations than by concerns about international law or security. The political backdrop in both countries is thus compounding an already complex diplomatic dispute.
Experts on India-Canada relations see the current crisis as a historic moment. Michael Kugelman, a South Asia specialist at the Wilson Center, believes that this marks “uncharted territory” for the two nations. “Publicly laying out extremely serious and detailed allegations, withdrawing ambassadors and top diplomats, releasing diplomatic statements with blistering language—this is a new low, even for this troubled relationship.”
Ryan Touhey, a historian and expert on India-Canada relations, echoes this view. In his book Conflicting Visions: Canada and India in the Cold War World, Touhey explores how the two countries’ relationship has ebbed and flowed over the decades. He notes that a key success of former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s administration was fostering a rapprochement with India, moving beyond Cold War-era grievances and focusing on trade and education.
However, under Trudeau’s leadership, these old wounds have reopened, with the Khalistan issue returning to the fore. “It had seemed to have disappeared since the beginning of the millennium,” says Touhey, “but now it has suddenly erupted all over again.”
The diplomatic rift comes at a time of shifting global power dynamics, particularly as India rises as a major player on the world stage. India’s growing economic clout, coupled with its strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific, makes it an attractive partner for Western nations, including Canada. Yet, as relations between New Delhi and Ottawa deteriorate, both countries may have to reassess their strategic priorities.
Trade and economic ties between India and Canada have expanded significantly in recent years. India was Canada’s 10th largest trading partner in 2022, and Canada is home to over 1.3 million people of Indian origin, who constitute roughly 4% of its population. Moreover, India has been Canada’s top source of international students since 2018. Despite the diplomatic row, these deep-rooted economic and social ties may provide a buffer against a complete breakdown in relations.
Touhey remains cautiously optimistic, noting that “people-to-people links will likely be okay,” even as high-level diplomatic relations remain strained. “The diaspora is diverse and resilient, and bilateral trade could eventually recover.”
However, for the moment, experts agree that the situation is bleak. “Delhi now levels the same allegations against Canada that it has regularly levelled against Pakistan,” observes Kugelman. “But of late, the language has been stronger against Canada than it has been against Pakistan—and that’s saying something.”
The path to diplomatic reconciliation appears uncertain. Trudeau’s government, weakened by domestic challenges, may find it difficult to pivot on this issue without appearing to betray its Sikh constituency. On the other hand, India, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has demonstrated a willingness to assert its national security interests with unprecedented force, even if it means risking ties with key international partners.
While economic and people-to-people ties between the two countries remain strong, the political and diplomatic fallout from the Nijjar assassination will take years to repair, if at all. For now, the once cordial relationship between India and Canada has hit rock bottom, with little sign of improvement on the horizon.
