Canada-India relations have plummeted to their lowest point in decades, following explosive allegations by Canadian authorities. In September 2023, Canada accused Indian agents of engaging in a series of illicit activities, including “homicides, extortion, and violent acts” on Canadian soil, all tied to pro-Khalistan leaders. The accusation has triggered a diplomatic storm, leading to the expulsion of diplomats on both sides and severely straining ties between the two nations.
In response to the allegations, Canada expelled six Indian diplomats, including High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma. India swiftly retaliated by expelling six Canadian diplomats, categorically rejecting the accusations as “preposterous” and politically motivated. This tit-for-tat diplomatic exchange underscores the deep mistrust and mounting tensions between the two countries.
The Canadian government’s accusation marks a significant escalation in its stance against alleged foreign interference. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government claimed to possess credible evidence linking Indian agents to the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a pro-Khalistan leader who had been living in Canada. This accusation has drawn sharp criticism from India, which has consistently denied any involvement in Nijjar’s death or any covert activities targeting pro-Khalistan activists abroad.
The Canadian investigation into Nijjar’s assassination has been ongoing since June 2023. However, Indian authorities have refused to cooperate, prompting Canada to go public with its findings. Trudeau condemned India’s actions, stating that targeting individuals on Canadian soil, especially those advocating for political causes like Khalistan, is “unacceptable.” He reiterated Canada’s commitment to protecting its sovereignty and ensuring the safety of all its citizens.
Yet, the lack of a shared understanding between the two countries on the issue of the Khalistan movement and the broader Sikh separatist agenda has complicated efforts to resolve the crisis. While Canada views pro-Khalistan activities as part of its democratic fabric, including the right to peaceful protest, India considers the movement a serious national security threat.
The Khalistan movement, which advocates for an independent Sikh state in India’s Punjab region, has been a longstanding source of tension between New Delhi and Ottawa. The movement gained momentum in the 1980s but has largely lost ground in India due to a crackdown on separatist activities. However, it continues to find support among segments of the Sikh diaspora, particularly in Canada, which is home to the world’s largest Sikh population outside India.
For India, the Khalistan movement represents an existential threat to its territorial integrity. The Modi government has repeatedly accused Canada of being too lenient on pro-Khalistan elements, allowing them to propagate their cause freely under the guise of freedom of expression. Indian officials have pointed to the activities of Sikh advocacy groups in Canada, which they believe promote extremism and undermine India’s sovereignty.
Canada, however, insists that its democratic values, including the right to free speech and protest, must be upheld. Trudeau’s government has defended the presence of pro-Khalistan activists, stating that their activities do not cross the line into terrorism. Nonetheless, India remains deeply concerned, viewing the Canadian government’s stance as indirectly fueling separatist sentiments that could destabilize its northern region.
The public fallout from Canada’s allegations has been swift and severe. Shortly after making the accusations, Canada expelled six Indian diplomats, including High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma. In an equally forceful response, India expelled six Canadian diplomats, calling Canada’s accusations “preposterous” and accusing the Trudeau government of playing politics ahead of a federal election. India has also suspended visa services for Canadians and demanded the repatriation of 41 Canadian diplomats, citing the principle of diplomatic parity.
India’s Foreign Ministry issued a strongly worded statement, rejecting Canada’s claims as politically motivated. It accused the Trudeau government of pandering to the Sikh diaspora, a significant voting bloc for Trudeau’s Liberal Party, ahead of the next election. Indian officials also raised concerns about Canada’s alleged failure to curb pro-Khalistan propaganda, which they claim is orchestrated by groups seeking to revive the separatist movement.
The diplomatic tit-for-tat has cast a shadow over various aspects of Canada-India relations, including trade, security cooperation, and people-to-people ties. In a further sign of the deteriorating relationship, India has refused to engage in negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with Canada, which had been a key pillar of Canada’s Indo-Pacific strategy.
Adding fuel to the fire, the United States disclosed in November 2023 that it had thwarted an alleged Indian plot to assassinate a Sikh separatist leader in New York. This revelation, along with Trudeau’s earlier assertion of “credible evidence” linking India to Nijjar’s assassination, has intensified global concerns about India’s alleged covert operations targeting Khalistani activists abroad.
The U.S., which has sought to deepen its strategic partnership with India, finds itself in a delicate position. While it values India as a crucial counterbalance to China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific, Washington has made it clear that such actions are unacceptable, irrespective of India’s strategic importance. The U.S. condemnation of India’s alleged extraterritorial activities further isolates New Delhi and strengthens Canada’s case that Indian agents have been operating illegally within its borders.
This development complicates India’s diplomatic posture, as it risks alienating key Western allies at a time when it seeks to position itself as a pivotal player in global affairs. India’s strategic partnership with the U.S., particularly through initiatives like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), has been integral to its Indo-Pacific strategy and its efforts to counter China’s assertiveness. The revelation of these assassination plots may undermine trust between New Delhi and Washington, despite shared interests in the region.
Canada and India are both key players in the broader Indo-Pacific region, and their diplomatic fallout has wider implications for regional geopolitics. Canada’s Indo-Pacific strategy, unveiled in 2022, explicitly highlights India’s growing strategic importance. The strategy describes China as a “disruptive power” and emphasizes the need to strengthen ties with nations like India to counterbalance Beijing’s influence. India, for its part, views its partnerships with Western democracies, especially the U.S. and Japan, as essential to its national security.
However, the allegations of Indian involvement in extraterritorial killings and espionage threaten to derail these efforts. Canada has suspended negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with India, a significant setback for both countries. For Canada, strengthening economic and strategic ties with India is crucial to its Indo-Pacific goals. For India, the suspension of these talks marks a missed opportunity to expand its influence and counter China’s dominance in the region.
India’s decision to prioritize its relationship with the West, particularly through defense partnerships like the one with the U.S. to jointly produce GE F-414 jet engines, suggests that New Delhi sees itself as a strategic counterweight to China. This collaboration, along with other defense initiatives, is aimed at bolstering India’s military capabilities and enhancing its role as a regional power. However, the diplomatic crisis with Canada threatens to cast a shadow over these efforts, as Western allies may become increasingly wary of India’s methods for dealing with dissent and separatism.
The current crisis in Canada-India relations shows no signs of abating. India remains steadfast in its denial of any involvement in Nijjar’s assassination, while Canada continues to press for answers. The diplomatic expulsions, suspension of visa services, and termination of trade talks point to a long and protracted dispute that will likely affect all aspects of the bilateral relationship.
From Canada’s perspective, India’s actions represent a blatant violation of its sovereignty. Ottawa expects accountability from New Delhi and demands assurances that such transnational repression will not occur again in the future. For India, the issue is framed as one of national security. The Modi government views the pro-Khalistan movement as a threat to India’s unity and territorial integrity, and it believes Canada’s leniency toward Sikh separatists is an unacceptable affront.
While both nations have broader strategic reasons to cooperate—especially in the context of the Indo-Pacific—the lack of common ground on the Khalistan issue will continue to strain their relationship. The Sikh diaspora in Canada, a vital constituency for Trudeau, has become a key obstacle in improving ties with India. Without a shared understanding of how to address these divergent priorities, the rift between Canada and India will likely persist, overshadowing potential areas of collaboration.
Canada-India relations are now at a critical juncture. The escalating diplomatic row underscores the complexity of balancing national security concerns with the principles of sovereignty and democratic rights. Until both nations can find a way to reconcile their differences on the pro-Khalistan issue, the prospects for restoring their once-strong partnership remain bleak.
