The Chinese government is ramping up efforts to understand and address the country’s persistently declining birthrate with a nationwide survey aimed at investigating public fears around having children. As the nation grapples with a demographic crisis, the study will focus on uncovering the root causes behind the reluctance of citizens to expand their families, even after multiple state-driven initiatives designed to boost fertility rates.
This extensive survey will encompass 30,000 respondents from 1,500 communities across 150 counties, according to the China Population and Development Research Centre, an agency under the National Health Commission. Its findings are expected to guide the development of more effective fertility support policies as China faces the prospect of an aging population, shrinking workforce, and the long-term economic consequences of its demographic challenges.
The study comes after China’s total population dropped for a second consecutive year in 2023, signaling that the existing measures have not yet produced the desired results. Once the world’s most populous country, China was overtaken by India in April 2023, further heightening the urgency of the situation.
China’s declining birthrate has its roots in the country’s efforts to control its population growth in the late 20th century. The introduction of the one-child policy in 1980 was a response to concerns about overpopulation and resource scarcity. The policy, which restricted most urban couples to having only one child, was largely effective in curbing population growth. However, it also created significant social and economic imbalances, including a rapidly aging population, a shrinking labor force, and a skewed gender ratio.
Although the one-child policy was officially phased out in 2015, with the government now allowing families to have up to three children, the country’s birthrate has continued to decline. In 2022, China’s birthrate fell to a historic low of 6.77 births per 1,000 people, despite the introduction of various pro-natalist policies.
The persistence of the low birthrate has left Chinese officials searching for answers. Many experts believe that the psychological and financial pressures faced by prospective parents, combined with shifting social attitudes, have contributed to the reluctance of many Chinese citizens to have children.
The current survey, as reported by state media outlet Global Times, is designed to analyze why people are hesitant or afraid to have children. The scope of the study is unprecedented, marking the first major effort of its kind since a similar family and fertility survey was conducted in 2021. Through this effort, Chinese policymakers hope to collect data that will offer insights into the underlying causes of the low birthrate and guide future policy decisions.
Among the issues the survey aims to investigate are the economic pressures associated with raising children, including housing costs, education expenses, and healthcare. These factors, coupled with long working hours, demanding urban lifestyles, and a competitive job market, have led many young people to delay marriage and parenthood. The study will also explore the social dimensions of family planning, including gender roles, attitudes toward marriage, and concerns about work-life balance.
Chinese health officials have already indicated that they are focusing on promoting marriage and childbirth at “appropriate ages” and encouraging shared parenting responsibilities. These efforts are part of a broader attempt to reshape social attitudes toward family life and ensure that both men and women contribute equally to child-rearing.
In recent years, China has rolled out a series of financial incentives to encourage families to have more children. These measures include tax breaks, housing subsidies, and increased parental leave. Some local governments have also introduced cash rewards for couples who have a second or third child.
In October 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping underscored the importance of reversing the country’s demographic trends, declaring that boosting the birthrate was a national priority. Speaking at the Communist Party National Congress, he announced that China would “pursue a proactive national strategy” to address the challenges posed by an aging population.
Despite these high-level commitments, the results have been underwhelming. Many Chinese families remain reluctant to have more than one child, citing the high cost of living, particularly in urban areas. In cities like Beijing and Shanghai, the expenses associated with housing, education, and healthcare can be overwhelming for young couples, deterring them from expanding their families.
Beyond financial concerns, many Chinese citizens are also influenced by evolving social attitudes. In a fast-paced and competitive society, career ambitions often take precedence over family life. Additionally, the rising empowerment of women in education and the workplace has contributed to changing perspectives on traditional gender roles and expectations. Women in China are increasingly prioritizing their careers and personal independence, often choosing to delay or forgo marriage and motherhood.
China’s demographic crisis extends beyond low birthrates. The country is also dealing with the dual challenge of an aging population and a shrinking workforce. The United Nations predicts that by 2050, over one-third of China’s population will be over the age of 60. This shift will place significant strain on the country’s social services and healthcare system, while also reducing the pool of working-age citizens needed to sustain economic growth.
In response, Chinese policymakers are considering raising the retirement age, a move that would help mitigate the impact of a shrinking workforce. In September 2023, the National People’s Congress discussed a draft law aimed at gradually increasing the statutory retirement age. The current retirement age in China is 60 for men and 55 for women, but there is growing pressure to raise these limits to alleviate the burden on the country’s pension system.
Additionally, the Chinese government is exploring other solutions to address the demographic imbalance. These include efforts to attract foreign talent and investments in automation and artificial intelligence to compensate for the declining labor force. However, experts warn that such measures are not long-term substitutes for a sustainable birthrate.
China is not alone in facing a declining birthrate. Other developed countries, such as Japan, South Korea, and parts of Europe, have also experienced similar trends. Japan, in particular, has long struggled with the challenges of an aging population, low fertility rates, and a shrinking workforce. South Korea, which has the lowest fertility rate in the world, has introduced a range of pro-natalist policies, including cash incentives and support for working mothers, but these measures have had limited success in reversing the trend.
China’s situation, however, is unique in that its demographic challenges are occurring at an earlier stage of economic development compared to other countries. As the world’s second-largest economy, China still relies heavily on labor-intensive industries, and its social safety net is less developed than those of many Western countries. This makes the demographic crisis even more pressing for Chinese policymakers, who must balance economic growth with the long-term sustainability of the population.
As China moves forward with its survey and continues to analyze the results, it is clear that addressing the declining birthrate will require a multifaceted approach. Financial incentives alone are unlikely to be sufficient to reverse the trend. Instead, policymakers will need to address the broader social and economic factors that are contributing to the reluctance to have children.
Experts suggest that one of the most important steps China can take is to reduce the cost of raising children, particularly in urban areas. This could involve expanding access to affordable housing, improving public education, and providing more comprehensive healthcare services for families. Additionally, efforts to promote work-life balance and encourage shared parenting responsibilities will be crucial in creating a more family-friendly environment.
Another key area of focus should be gender equality. As more women enter the workforce and pursue higher education, it is essential that policies reflect the changing dynamics of family life. This could involve providing greater support for working mothers, including flexible work arrangements and affordable childcare services.
China will also need to continue investing in its social safety net, particularly as the population ages. Expanding pension benefits and healthcare services for the elderly will help alleviate some of the pressures associated with an aging population, while also ensuring that future generations are not overburdened by the costs of caring for their elderly relatives.
