Prabowo Subianto, a former military general and long-time political figure, will be sworn in as Indonesia’s new president after securing a decisive victory in the February 14 elections. With 59% of the vote—representing over 96 million ballots—Prabowo is poised to lead Southeast Asia’s largest economy and the world’s third-largest democracy. His administration, alongside Vice President-elect Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the 37-year-old son of outgoing President Joko Widodo (Jokowi), promises both continuity and change as it takes the reins from Jokowi’s ten-year leadership.
Prabowo, now 73, inherits a nation grappling with both immense opportunities and significant hurdles. Indonesia, home to over 284 million people, is at a critical juncture: the economy is on the rebound after global slowdowns, the country’s international standing is rising, and a massive $32 billion project to move the capital from Jakarta to Nusantara remains underway. For the incoming president, managing these challenges will require not only deft governance but also an ability to unify a complex and diverse political landscape.
While Prabowo has signaled that his administration will continue many of the policies championed by Jokowi, experts predict that significant changes are likely. Political analyst Effendi Gazali told Anadolu Agency, “Prabowo describes his administration as a continuation of Jokowi’s, but I expect to see ‘significant’ shifts over time.” One area that will demand immediate attention is the continuation of Jokowi’s ambitious plan to move the capital to Nusantara—a project aimed at relieving overcrowding and environmental stress in Jakarta.
Jokowi’s push for the new capital saw 80% of the groundwork completed by the end of his term, but Prabowo’s leadership will be pivotal in finishing the job, a task complicated by strained state finances and competing demands for resources.
Prabowo enters office with a rare advantage in Indonesia’s political system: a coalition of nearly every major party in the nation’s parliament. The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP), the largest party in the legislature and previously Jokowi’s power base, has thrown its support behind Prabowo. Should the PDIP officially join the government, it would mark the first time in Indonesia’s post-reform history that the country has faced no parliamentary opposition.
This unique situation, however, brings its own set of challenges. Managing the diverse political interests of Indonesia’s eight-party parliament, which includes 732 lawmakers—360 of whom are first-timers—will require skillful negotiation. Fahri Bachmid, leader of the Crescent Star Party, emphasized that Prabowo’s main domestic challenge will be “how to manage a government system with multiple parties.” Navigating this landscape will be a delicate balancing act, especially as Prabowo strives to deliver on key campaign promises, including military modernization, economic growth, and social welfare programs.
One of the standout promises from Prabowo’s campaign was the provision of free meals to schoolchildren, a policy designed to address both child nutrition and educational attainment. While popular, the program will require considerable funding, especially as the government faces pressing budgetary concerns, including a substantial portion of the national revenue earmarked for debt payments.
Franka Soeria, a Jakarta-based entrepreneur, highlighted the complexities of such a large-scale initiative: “The biggest challenge will be managing the state budget,” she said, noting that competing priorities like the capital relocation project and military spending could complicate Prabowo’s ability to meet his welfare promises. Yet, as Prabowo takes office, this policy will be closely watched as a barometer of his administration’s ability to deliver tangible benefits to Indonesia’s vast population.
Prabowo’s victory signals a shift in Indonesia’s foreign policy, which is expected to become more assertive under his leadership. As defense minister in Jokowi’s government, Prabowo laid the groundwork for Indonesia’s rising international profile, visiting key countries such as the United States, China, Japan, and Russia during the six-month transition period. These trips were aimed at strengthening Indonesia’s diplomatic and military ties, particularly in the face of intensifying geopolitical competition in the Asia-Pacific region.
Prabowo’s foreign policy vision, as described by political analyst Effendi Gazali, is to restore Indonesia’s standing as a “great country” economically, culturally, and diplomatically. This approach includes boosting the country’s defense capabilities and modernizing its military, something Prabowo has long advocated. During his time as defense minister, he sought to strike a balance between major powers, particularly China and the US, ensuring that Indonesia maintained its independent stance in international relations.
“Prabowo is playing a sophisticated game—strengthening ties with both China and the US while not depending on either,” Gazali noted, adding that Prabowo’s ability to navigate these relationships will be crucial as Indonesia seeks to assert itself in regional and global affairs.
Prabowo’s background as a former military general has made defense and security a central theme of his presidency. As Indonesia grapples with a rapidly changing global security environment, Prabowo’s focus on military modernization will be a key element of his administration’s domestic and international agenda. He has expressed a desire to develop Indonesia’s defense capabilities, with an emphasis on increasing domestic production of military equipment and reducing reliance on foreign suppliers.
“Prabowo is committed to strengthening Indonesia’s military powers by developing domestic plants, potentials, and skills,” Gazali said. This emphasis on self-sufficiency is part of a broader strategy to protect Indonesia’s national interests in a region increasingly shaped by power rivalries, particularly between China and the United States.
Prabowo’s military modernization plans will likely include increased presidential control over defense and foreign policy, further signaling a more centralized approach to these critical areas. With Sugiono, a senior member of Prabowo’s Gerindra Party, expected to take over as foreign minister, continuity between Indonesia’s defense and foreign policy strategies is likely.
While Prabowo’s presidency is expected to bring significant changes, the presence of Gibran Rakabuming Raka as vice president points to an important element of continuity from the Jokowi era. Gibran, the younger of Jokowi’s two sons, has emerged as a rising star in Indonesian politics, though his role as vice president is expected to be more symbolic than substantive.
“The role of the vice president in Indonesia is minimal,” Gazali explained, adding that Gibran’s presence could help ensure a smooth transition between the two administrations. Gibran’s youth and familial connection to Jokowi provide a reassuring figure for those who supported Jokowi’s policies, and his involvement in Prabowo’s administration is seen as a stabilizing factor in what could otherwise be a period of political turbulence.
Still, Gibran’s inclusion in the government raises the possibility of friction between the old guard and the new leadership. Soeria noted that while the relationship between Prabowo and Gibran is expected to be respectful, the potential for tensions exists as they navigate the complexities of governing a diverse and sprawling nation.
As Prabowo assumes the presidency, he steps into the shoes of one of Indonesia’s most popular leaders in recent history. Jokowi, whose hands-on leadership style and focus on infrastructure development have earned him widespread praise, leaves behind a mixed legacy. Under his administration, Indonesia experienced rapid economic growth and significant strides in infrastructure, but his government also faced criticism for political maneuvering and controversial legal changes.
One such controversy arose last year when large-scale protests erupted over changes to Indonesia’s electoral law, which many saw as an attempt to smooth the path for Jokowi’s other son, Kaesang Pangarep, to run in a regional contest in Central Java. The protests highlighted the delicate balance between democratic reform and political ambition, a balance that Prabowo will need to navigate carefully as he builds on Jokowi’s legacy while carving out his own path.
As Prabowo Subianto prepares to take the oath of office, the challenges that lie ahead are immense. From fulfilling campaign promises on social welfare to navigating Indonesia’s role in an increasingly complex international landscape, the former military general will need to rely on his political savvy and experience to steer the country forward. Balancing the expectations of a diverse political coalition, addressing domestic concerns, and strengthening Indonesia’s military and diplomatic position will be among his top priorities.
The next five years will define not only Prabowo’s presidency but also Indonesia’s trajectory as a regional power. How he navigates these challenges will determine whether his administration can meet the aspirations of a nation on the rise.
