In a candid and alarming assessment of the evolving military landscape in Eastern Europe, Lieutenant General Charles Costanza, commander of the US Army’s V Corps stationed in Poland, has raised significant concerns about the lessons Russia is learning from its protracted conflict in Ukraine. Speaking in an interview on October 22, Costanza outlined the potential long-term threat posed by Russia’s ability to adapt and modernize its forces during the war, which he believes could pose a major challenge to NATO and its allies in the region.
As NATO continues to closely monitor the rapidly changing dynamics on its eastern borders, Costanza stressed the need for the alliance to reassess its assumptions about Russia’s military capacity and strategic adaptability. According to the general, the notion that Russia’s military has been irreparably damaged by the war in Ukraine may no longer hold true. Instead, he argued that Russia is taking advantage of the battlefield experience to evolve and become more formidable in the future.
In recent months, Western analysts have largely focused on the devastating toll the Ukraine conflict has taken on Russian forces, with reports estimating that Moscow has suffered over 600,000 casualties since the start of the war in February 2022. However, General Costanza’s remarks suggest that this view might underestimate Russia’s ability to recover and adapt in the face of these losses.
“I think there’s a view that Russia is going to take three to 10 years to reconstitute, and I think that we need to look at that a little differently,” Costanza said during the interview. Despite the heavy losses, he noted that Russia’s ground forces have actually grown in size as a result of the Kremlin’s extensive mobilization efforts. “They may not be as well trained, but they’re bigger,” he added, pointing to Russia’s shift toward a wartime footing in terms of both industry and manpower.
This mobilization, Costanza explained, has allowed Russia to replenish its forces even as it faces staggering casualties. More importantly, the general emphasized that Russia is adapting its military strategies based on the lessons learned from fighting a Western-trained and Western-equipped Ukrainian military. “They’re learning how to defeat those capabilities and those systems,” he said, noting that Russia’s modernization efforts extend beyond personnel and include significant updates to its equipment and tactics.
The conflict in Ukraine has served as a testing ground for Russia to analyze and counter Western military doctrines. According to General Costanza, Moscow is using the battlefield experience to sharpen its tactics and upgrade its hardware, which could present a long-term challenge to NATO forces, particularly in Eastern Europe.
“They [Russia] know they’re fighting Western-trained and -equipped forces. And so, as they modernize based on the lessons that they’re learning — not just their equipment, but how they fight — they’re really sharpening their ability to fight us in the future. And I think that’s something we need to be concerned about,” Costanza warned.
The implications of this evolution are particularly concerning for NATO’s Eastern European members, such as Poland and the Baltic states, who share borders with Russia and are on the front lines of any potential future conflict. Costanza’s remarks suggest that NATO must pay closer attention to Russia’s changing military posture and prepare for the possibility of a more agile and adaptive Russian military in the coming years.
Adding to NATO’s concerns, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov made a statement on October 23, confirming that Moscow is actively analyzing NATO equipment captured during the Ukraine conflict as part of a broader strategy to enhance its military capabilities. Speaking after a defense meeting in Minsk, Belousov said that Russia is leveraging the knowledge gained from these captured technologies to develop new weapons systems and improve its operational effectiveness.
“We are systematically studying NATO equipment that has been seized on the battlefield, and this analysis is crucial to identifying its weaknesses and enhancing our own capabilities,” Belousov explained. Though the Defense Minister did not specify which types of equipment are being studied, it is clear that Russia views this as an opportunity to accelerate its military modernization efforts.
The development and enhancement of new weapons systems based on captured Western technology could pose a significant threat to NATO’s technological superiority in the region. Belousov reiterated Moscow’s commitment to forming a unified defense strategy with its allies, particularly Belarus, as part of a broader effort to ensure the security of the Union State, a political and military alliance between the two countries.
Amid the ongoing conflict, some Russian military experts have also pointed out perceived weaknesses in Western military equipment supplied to Ukraine. Retired Russian Colonel Anatoly Matviychuk, a noted military analyst, commented on October 23 that much of the Western-made weaponry being used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine has failed to meet expectations in the harsh realities of the battlefield.
According to Matviychuk, many of the systems provided by NATO countries were designed with an emphasis on ergonomics and comfort rather than combat effectiveness. “Western manufacturers focused too much on the comfort and user-friendliness of their equipment, and as a result, these weapons have not been as effective in combat as expected,” Matviychuk stated. He pointed to several examples of Western technology struggling to perform in intense combat scenarios, though he did not provide specifics.
The limitations of Western technology in the Ukraine conflict have raised questions about the effectiveness of NATO’s current military strategies and the need for potential adjustments in the future. Matviychuk’s comments reflect a broader narrative within Russia that seeks to highlight the resilience and adaptability of its own forces in the face of advanced Western weapons.
Perhaps most concerning for NATO is the broader geopolitical context in which Russia’s military adaptation is taking place. General Costanza pointed out that Russia is not only learning from its own experiences but is also sharing its battlefield knowledge with other nations, notably China and Iran. This cooperation between Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran could lead to a dangerous alignment of military capabilities and strategies, further complicating the security environment for NATO and its allies.
“There’s a growing nexus of cooperation between Russia, China, and Iran, and we’re seeing an exchange of military knowledge that could significantly enhance their collective capabilities,” Costanza remarked. The general highlighted the fact that Russia’s lessons learned in Ukraine are being closely studied by other nations that view NATO as a strategic adversary. This exchange of military expertise could accelerate the modernization efforts of these countries and increase the threat they pose to Western interests.
The evolving dynamics of the Ukraine conflict and Russia’s ability to adapt militarily have broad implications for NATO’s defense posture, particularly in Eastern Europe. General Costanza’s warnings come at a time when the alliance is already grappling with a range of security challenges, from the rise of China to the resurgence of terrorism in certain regions.
In the face of these growing threats, NATO’s Eastern European members are particularly vulnerable. Countries like Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, which share borders with Russia, are increasingly concerned about Moscow’s military evolution. While these nations have received significant military support from NATO in recent years, the prospect of a more adaptive and capable Russian military poses a direct challenge to their security.
Beyond Europe, the broader geopolitical landscape is shifting in ways that could further destabilize global security. Russia’s cooperation with China and Iran, both of which have been developing their own advanced military capabilities, creates the potential for a formidable bloc of military power aligned against NATO. This cooperation could extend to arms sales, joint exercises, and even the sharing of intelligence and battlefield tactics, all of which would complicate NATO’s efforts to maintain a strategic advantage.
