In a high-stakes election marred by scandal and uncertainty, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces the difficult reality that he may need the backing of lawmakers entangled in a slush-fund scandal to maintain his grip on power. As voters head to the polls in a snap election called by Ishiba himself, the outcome could spell a new chapter in Japanese politics—or plunge the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) deeper into crisis.
Ishiba, who assumed leadership of the LDP just last month following the resignation of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, called the election with hopes of restoring the party’s credibility after the damaging scandal. However, recent opinion polls suggest that while the LDP is expected to remain the largest party in parliament, it is likely to lose its majority in the powerful lower house for the first time in over a decade. Such a result would leave Ishiba in a precarious position, forcing him to rely on both coalition partners and, potentially, disgraced LDP lawmakers running as independents, whose involvement in the scandal has made them political pariahs.
The scandal at the heart of the election revolves around allegations of illicit channeling of money from party fundraisers into the personal accounts of several LDP lawmakers. The public outcry over these revelations has compounded growing dissatisfaction with the government, fueled in part by the highest inflation rates Japan has seen in decades. For a party that has been in power almost continuously since 1955, this scandal has put its once steadfast public support at risk.
In an effort to distance himself from the scandal, Ishiba announced earlier this month that 12 LDP members implicated in the slush-fund controversy would not run as official party candidates in the election. Among the ousted lawmakers are prominent figures such as former trade ministers Koichi Hagiuda and Yasutoshi Nishimura, and former education minister Hakubun Shimomura, all of whom once held significant sway within the party.
Yet despite being stripped of LDP backing, 10 of the disgraced lawmakers are still running in the election as independents. If they succeed in retaining their seats, Ishiba could be forced into a difficult political dance—balancing public demands for accountability with the need for their support to form a stable government.
Polls released in the final days before the election reveal a mixed outlook for Ishiba’s ruling coalition. While the LDP is still projected to win the most seats, the loss of its solo majority in the lower house, which it has held since 2012, now seems almost inevitable. This would leave the LDP reliant on its junior coalition partner, Komeito, to retain power.
However, even with Komeito’s support, there is no guarantee that the coalition will reach the critical 233-seat threshold required for a majority in the 465-member lower house. Recent polling from sources such as Mainichi, FNN/Sankei, and Asahi newspapers indicates that the LDP and Komeito could lose as many as 70 seats, a sharp decline that would leave Ishiba scrambling to forge alliances with smaller parties—or potentially, the disgraced independents—to keep his government afloat.
“If that happens, the easiest option for Ishiba would be to cooperate with the ousted LDP members, but that’s a tricky situation,” said Hideo Kumano, an economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute. “I think the public will never forgive the party over the kickback issue.”
The internal dynamics of the LDP are equally fraught. The handling of the slush-fund scandal has caused deep divisions within the party, with resentment simmering among those who believe the leadership did not act decisively enough. Ishiba’s critics argue that the removal of a dozen lawmakers from the party’s official slate was a symbolic gesture that failed to address the deeper rot within the party’s ranks.
“There is an internal war going on,” explained Mieko Nakabayashi, a professor at Waseda University in Tokyo and a former lawmaker, in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “It’s really fragmented. Therefore, after the election we don’t know how they can come back together and help each other.”
Should Ishiba’s coalition fall short of a majority, his leadership could come under immediate threat. A poor election result would not only damage his standing within the LDP, but also make it difficult for him to push through key policy initiatives, including a planned economic stimulus package. With an upper house election scheduled for next year, the pressure on Ishiba to deliver results is mounting.
The opposition parties, meanwhile, have been clear in their refusal to form a coalition with the LDP. Both the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) have stated they would not enter into a formal alliance with the LDP, though there remains the possibility of issue-by-issue cooperation.
That leaves Ishiba with few options should his ruling coalition fall short of a majority. One possibility is to turn to smaller parties such as the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), which is expected to increase its number of seats in this election. Although the DPP has also expressed reluctance to join a formal coalition with the LDP, its leader has indicated a willingness to collaborate on certain legislative initiatives, providing Ishiba with a potential lifeline.
However, any partnership with the DPP or other smaller parties would likely come at a cost. Ishiba would need to accommodate their policy demands, which include voter-friendly measures such as reducing the sales tax and increasing income tax exemptions. While such policies may be popular with the public, they would complicate Ishiba’s own fiscal plans, which include maintaining robust public spending and ramping up Japan’s defense budget.
At the heart of Ishiba’s economic platform is a pledge to introduce a significant stimulus package aimed at tackling Japan’s cost-of-living crisis and boosting defense spending in response to growing regional threats. The new package, which is expected to be larger than the ¥13 trillion ($87 billion) extra budget approved last year, is seen as a critical component of the government’s post-pandemic recovery strategy.
But funding these ambitious plans may prove difficult, particularly if Ishiba is forced to adopt policies that reduce tax revenue, such as the DPP’s proposal to lower the sales tax from 10% to 5%. Additionally, any deal struck with smaller parties could lead to a more fragmented legislative agenda, limiting Ishiba’s ability to implement his broader vision for Japan’s economic future.
As election day looms, one thing is clear: the results of Sunday’s vote will shape not only the future of the LDP but also the trajectory of Japanese politics for years to come. For Prime Minister Ishiba, the challenge is not just winning the election but emerging with enough political capital to govern effectively.
Despite the uncertainties, there is still a precedent for the LDP to win the most seats but fail to form a government. This happened in 1993, when opposition parties united to oust the LDP through a coalition focused on electoral reform. While it is unlikely that the same scenario will play out in 2024, the prospect of a divided parliament remains a real risk, particularly if the LDP fails to achieve a majority on its own or through its coalition with Komeito.
Moreover, the specter of the 2009 election—when the LDP lost power for the first time in decades—continues to loom large over the party. While the LDP is almost certain to avoid such a catastrophic defeat this time around, the erosion of its once-dominant position in Japanese politics cannot be ignored.
For Ishiba, the next few days will be crucial in determining whether his leadership can survive the scandal and whether he can navigate the complex political landscape that awaits him after the election. Should he succeed in maintaining power, he will need to reconcile the fractured elements within his party, restore public trust, and deliver on his promises for economic recovery.
If he fails, the LDP may find itself facing even deeper turmoil, with its long-held dominance of Japanese politics in jeopardy.
