On November 5, Americans will head to the polls for an election that has taken a dramatic turn. What began as a potential rematch of the 2020 election between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump became unprecedented in July when Biden withdrew, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor. 

Now, voters are faced with a historic decision: elect America’s first woman president or return Trump to office for a second term.

With Harris holding a narrow lead in the national polls since announcing her candidacy, the race is intensifying daily. As both candidates campaign vigorously across battleground states, polling figures fluctuate, providing only a glimpse into the potential outcome.

National Polling Overview

Harris surged in national polling averages soon after Biden’s endorsement, initially pulling ahead of Trump by nearly four percentage points in late August. Her early lead stabilized through September, even after a highly watched debate on September 10, which garnered nearly 70 million viewers. The head-to-head event, however, brought a tightening in the polls, with Trump narrowing Harris’s lead to just one or two percentage points by early October.

National polls suggest Harris maintains a slight lead over Trump, but experts caution against relying solely on national polling to predict the outcome. The United States’ electoral college system ultimately decides the victor, meaning that each state’s popular vote translates into a set number of electoral votes, distributed based on population. With 538 electoral votes up for grabs, the magic number is 270 for victory.

• Electoral College and Swing States: Deciding Factors
  Most US states consistently lean toward either the Republican or Democratic Party, leaving only a handful of battleground states where both Harris and Trump have significant chances of securing wins. These key states—Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—are expected to determine the election’s outcome. Polls in these swing states reveal a remarkably tight race, with neither candidate securing a definitive lead. The competitiveness in these regions stems from diverse voter demographics and regional interests that have historically shifted between parties.
• Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina
  In Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, both candidates have held small, fluctuating leads over the past two months. While Harris experienced an early bump in these states following her campaign launch, recent polling shows Trump inching ahead, albeit by narrow margins. This trend suggests that the race in these states could tip in either direction, making them critical areas of focus for both campaigns.
• Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
  For Harris, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are particularly pivotal; all three were Democratic strongholds before Trump’s 2016 victory. Biden reclaimed these states in 2020, contributing significantly to his win. Harris initially led in all three states after entering the race, often by two or three points. However, recent days have seen Trump close the gap and take a slight lead in Pennsylvania, underscoring the state’s unpredictable voting behavior. With Pennsylvania holding the most electoral votes among the swing states, both candidates are heavily investing in rallies, advertisements, and grassroots campaigns there.

Why National Polls Are Not Always Predictive

While national polling provides a general sense of each candidate’s popularity, it lacks the precision to predict the electoral college outcome. In 2016 and 2020, national polls underestimated support for Trump, particularly among rural and non-college-educated voters, who tend to be underrepresented in some polling methods. Pollsters have since adjusted their methods, but predicting voter turnout and preference shifts remains a complex challenge.

Polling analysis site 538 aggregates data from reputable polling organizations that meet standards for transparency and methodology. Even with these safeguards, pollsters must estimate key variables, such as voter enthusiasm, turnout rates, and demographic changes, which can affect polling accuracy. For example, in battleground states, differences as small as one to two percentage points can swing the results in favor of either candidate.

The Debate: A Pivotal Moment in the Campaign

On September 10, the two candidates faced off in the sole debate of the campaign, with topics ranging from economic policy to foreign relations. Observers described the debate as “tense and closely contested,” with both candidates holding their ground on issues central to their platforms. Harris emphasized the Biden administration’s work on healthcare, climate initiatives, and social equity, while Trump centered his arguments around economic recovery, border security, and what he calls “America First” policies.

For many voters, this debate served as a defining moment. Harris focused on advancing progressive policies, advocating for expanded healthcare access and climate reforms. Trump, on the other hand, made an appeal to his base, reinforcing his stance on economic growth and national security. The debate highlighted the stark policy divide between the candidates and underscored the ideological split that has characterized American politics over the past decade.

Defining the 2024 Election

This election centers on a variety of pressing issues, with each candidate presenting contrasting visions for the country’s future.

1. Economy and Inflation

• Harris: Harris has pledged to continue the Biden administration’s efforts to control inflation and strengthen the middle class. She proposes measures to make healthcare more affordable, increase minimum wages, and expand worker protections.
• Trump: Trump, aiming to revive his economic agenda from his first term, has promised tax cuts for corporations and a focus on domestic energy production to lower gas prices. His “America First” strategy includes reducing regulations to stimulate business growth, especially in manufacturing.

2. Healthcare and Social Policy

• Harris: Harris’s healthcare platform emphasizes affordability and accessibility, supporting expanded subsidies under the Affordable Care Act. She has also promised to address prescription drug costs and has proposed expanding paid family leave.
• Trump: Trump continues to advocate for a repeal of the ACA, proposing a “market-driven” alternative focused on competition among insurance providers. His social policies lean conservative, with a focus on strengthening traditional family values.

3. Climate Change and Environmental Policy

• Harris: Acknowledging climate change as a “critical threat,” Harris advocates for aggressive climate action, including expanding renewable energy and setting strict emissions standards. Her administration would aim to build on Biden’s climate initiatives and push for environmental justice.
• Trump: Trump, critical of Biden’s climate policies, has vowed to reverse what he considers “job-killing” environmental regulations. He emphasizes energy independence through increased fossil fuel production and opposes stringent emissions targets, arguing they hinder economic growth.

4. Immigration and Border Security

• Harris: Harris has proposed immigration reforms that focus on a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and improved border processing. She also advocates for addressing root causes of migration in Central America.
• Trump: Trump’s platform includes expanding border security measures, including restarting construction on the US-Mexico border wall. He has been vocal about limiting asylum programs and enhancing enforcement measures to control illegal immigration.

Voter Turnout and Mobilization Efforts

With such a tight race, mobilizing voters is critical for both campaigns. Harris’s campaign has prioritized young voters, women, and minority groups, investing heavily in digital outreach and voter registration drives. Her team has made efforts to engage disenfranchised communities and promote early voting.

Trump’s strategy focuses on rallying his loyal base and increasing turnout among white working-class and rural voters. His campaign has organized a series of large rallies across battleground states, emphasizing traditional values and promising a return to “the America we know and love.”

The Impact of the Supreme Court and Abortion Rights

Abortion remains a defining issue, particularly after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022. Harris, a strong proponent of abortion rights, has vowed to protect reproductive freedoms, making it a central theme of her campaign. Trump, aligned with the conservative stance, has lauded the court’s decision and supports state-level abortion restrictions. This stark contrast highlights the divide on social issues, mobilizing voters on both sides.

Final Days: Predictions and Uncertainties

With just days until the election, Harris and Trump are nearly neck-and-neck in key battlegrounds. Polls suggest that the electoral map may resemble that of the 2020 election, with Harris holding a slight edge but Trump gaining momentum in recent weeks. In a race this close, even minor shifts in voter sentiment or turnout could determine the outcome.

Observers caution that polling errors from past elections may reappear, particularly as pollsters strive to accurately capture Trump’s support base. The unpredictability of voter turnout, the influence of social media, and potential last-minute events make predicting the winner difficult.

On November 5, Americans will head to the polls for an election that has taken a dramatic turn. What began as a potential rematch of the 2020 election between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump became unprecedented in July when Biden withdrew, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor. Now, voters are faced with a historic decision: elect America’s first woman president or return Trump to office for a second term.

With Harris holding a narrow lead in the national polls since announcing her candidacy, the race is intensifying daily. As both candidates campaign vigorously across battleground states, polling figures fluctuate, providing only a glimpse into the potential outcome.