David Crisafulli is set to become Queensland’s next premier following the Liberal National Party’s (LNP) victory in the state election. While the LNP secured a majority with 49 seats, surpassing the 47-seat threshold, the election revealed deep divisions within the state. The close nature of the race, which left Labor with an anticipated 30 seats, suggests a mixed sentiment among voters that underscores the challenges Crisafulli will face as he steps into leadership.
Although the LNP’s win enables it to lead the state, experts argue the results fall short of the decisive landslide the party had hoped for. The tightly contested election suggests that Queenslanders are not fully aligned with either major party. This split in voter sentiment, Griffith University political scientist Paul Williams notes, is a signal that a substantial portion of Queenslanders still hold reservations about both the LNP and Labor’s approaches to critical issues, especially crime and social policy.
According to Williams, a series of complex issues including crime rates, economic struggles, and divisive social policies contributed to this outcome. “Cost of living was and still is the number one issue,” Williams noted, emphasizing that Crisafulli’s government must address Queenslanders’ economic anxieties if it is to maintain support in the long term.
Throughout the campaign, Queensland Labor struggled to convince voters that it could tackle rising crime effectively, a factor that many within the party blame for their electoral losses. Queensland Deputy Premier Cameron Dick highlighted this challenge, emphasizing the need to rebuild trust in regional areas where crime remains a pressing concern.
“On issues like crime, I don’t think that we could demonstrate to people that we were not only addressing their concerns, but we were hearing them,” Dick explained, underscoring the disconnect between the Labor government’s initiatives and the public’s perception of their impact. This gap between policy and perception proved especially damaging for Labor in regional areas, where citizens reportedly felt their concerns went unheard.
Social issues such as abortion became contentious topics during the election, particularly Crisafulli’s position on abortion rights. Despite ultimately affirming a pro-choice stance, Crisafulli’s hesitance in clarifying his views created uncertainty among voters. Federal National Party leader David Littleproud suggested that Crisafulli may have benefitted from a stronger stance on the issue, acknowledging that ambiguity can alienate voters.
The abortion debate became particularly heated following a proposal by state crossbencher Robbie Katter to introduce a bill potentially repealing abortion rights. Katter’s “born alive” legislation created an environment where Crisafulli’s stance came under repeated scrutiny. Analysts suggest this prolonged indecision may have influenced undecided voters, revealing a sensitivity among Queenslanders to clear-cut stances on social issues that Crisafulli’s government must address moving forward.
The LNP’s win in Queensland holds both symbolic and practical implications for the federal Labor government led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. With the next federal election slated for May 2025, Queensland’s electoral trends could impact Labor’s national strategy. Despite Crisafulli’s victory in Queensland, Williams believes that the results will not directly translate into increased support for federal Opposition leader Peter Dutton.
“Queensland is very good at separating state and federal issues,” Williams said, explaining that the state’s voters have consistently demonstrated an ability to distinguish between state and federal matters, as evidenced by the 2019 re-election of then-Prime Minister Scott Morrison, followed by the 2020 re-election of Queensland’s Labor government.
Nevertheless, Queensland’s shift towards the LNP does present a challenge for federal Labor as it grapples with a cooling approval rating. In recent months, federal Labor’s primary vote has dipped, and while it remains on par with the Coalition in two-party preferred polling, the party must work to rebuild its reputation, particularly among regional voters.
The outcome in Queensland offers federal Labor several strategic lessons. The dominance of cost-of-living concerns among voters signals that economic stability will remain a top priority in the lead-up to the next federal election. Williams suggests that an earlier, “sweet” budget may help alleviate some of the pressures felt by Australians and potentially sway voters back towards Labor. With inflation, housing affordability, and utility costs heavily impacting voters, a robust economic platform is essential for Labor to maintain its competitive edge at the federal level.
Kos Samaras, director of polling firm RedBridge and a former Labor campaigner, warned that relying solely on historical trends to forecast federal outcomes may be unwise. “Labor losing Rockhampton and Mackay, seats they have held for over a hundred years, is a problem,” Samaras observed. He argued that the cost-of-living crisis demands innovative solutions, especially to win back low-income voters who have felt neglected by both major parties in recent years.
One of the most striking outcomes of the Queensland election is the evident need for federal Labor to prioritize regional concerns, particularly as they pertain to crime, economic stability, and social policy. With Crisafulli’s success attributed in part to his appeal among regional voters, it is clear that Albanese’s team must address this constituency if they hope to retain power in 2025. Deputy Premier Dick pointed out that in failing to meaningfully address youth crime in regional areas, Labor left an opening for the LNP to capitalize on public discontent.
Similarly, the economic struggles in Queensland’s regional communities serve as a microcosm of the challenges facing low-income Australians nationwide. While the Miles government attempted to provide financial relief through policies such as subsidized public transport and energy rebates, these measures were ultimately deemed insufficient. Samaras underscored the likelihood of “more and more of this sort of volatility” among low-income voters, which may have broad implications for Labor’s federal prospects if left unaddressed.
For federal Opposition leader Peter Dutton, the LNP’s Queensland victory may appear to be an encouraging development. However, political experts remain skeptical about Dutton’s ability to leverage this win to his advantage on the national stage. While Crisafulli’s success does provide the Coalition with some momentum, translating state-level wins into federal influence is no small feat. Dutton will likely need to hone his messaging to ensure it resonates with a broader audience beyond Queensland.
Despite Queensland’s historical tendency to separate state and federal concerns, Dutton’s strategy could benefit from Crisafulli’s success by emphasizing the Coalition’s stance on social policy, regional development, and economic support. As Williams points out, however, Dutton faces an uphill battle to gain the same level of support nationally that the LNP garnered in Queensland.
As Queensland’s incoming premier, Crisafulli will confront numerous challenges that require swift and decisive action. First on the agenda will be tackling crime, an issue that has dominated the political discourse in Queensland. His approach to crime prevention, as well as his capacity to communicate effectively with regional communities, will play a significant role in defining his leadership.
Economic pressures, housing affordability, and environmental sustainability are other pressing issues that Crisafulli must address to maintain public support. The new government’s ability to navigate these complex topics while delivering tangible improvements will likely determine the LNP’s staying power in Queensland politics. Furthermore, Crisafulli’s stance on social issues, particularly abortion, will need to be managed carefully to avoid alienating segments of the electorate.
