In a series of airstrikes on Saturday, Israel targeted critical military sites in Iran, striking what analysts identify as components linked to Iran’s missile production and defunct nuclear weapons development program. The strikes, reported to be part of retaliatory efforts by Israel following a recent missile barrage from Iran, are speculated to have a potentially significant impact on Iran’s missile capabilities.
This assessment, derived from commercial satellite imagery, was conducted by David Albright, a former United Nations weapons inspector, and Decker Eveleth, a research analyst at the CNA think tank in Washington, D.C. According to these experts, the Israeli airstrikes hit facilities at the Parchin military complex and the expansive Khojir missile site, both near Tehran.
The targets appear to include buildings associated with the Amad Plan—a now-defunct Iranian nuclear program—and solid fuel production facilities for ballistic missiles. With these developments, regional tensions remain high, and questions about the future of Iran’s missile production capabilities and their broader security implications are becoming increasingly pertinent.
Parchin and Khojir: The Targeted Sites
Albright and Eveleth, analyzing satellite images, confirmed damage to structures in two key Iranian military sites: Parchin and Khojir. These sites are long suspected by Western analysts and intelligence agencies of supporting Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear ambitions.
1. Parchin Military Complex
Parchin is a sprawling military site near Tehran historically connected to Iran’s Amad Plan, which Iran pursued until 2003, according to international intelligence agencies and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). While Iran insists the program is defunct and denies ever having sought nuclear weapons, Parchin has remained a focal point for Western intelligence.
- Taleghan 2 Building: According to Albright, Israeli strikes specifically targeted a building known as Taleghan 2 within Parchin, which he says housed equipment and materials connected to the Amad Plan. Albright’s access to Iran’s program archives, obtained by Israel’s Mossad in 2018, revealed that the Taleghan 2 facility retained equipment that could be of “intrinsic value” for nuclear-related research.
- Missile Fuel Production: Satellite imagery from Planet Labs, reviewed by both Albright and Eveleth, showed extensive damage to missile solid-fuel production facilities within Parchin, including two solid-fuel mixing buildings and a warehouse, all crucial for ballistic missile production.
2. Khojir Missile Production Site
The Khojir complex, also near Tehran, is a major missile production site. Reuters previously reported on major expansions at this site, with analysts suggesting these developments were intended to boost Iran’s missile production.
- Solid-Fuel Mixing Facilities: Satellite images reviewed by Eveleth indicate that Israel struck solid-fuel mixing buildings within Khojir as well. The buildings, protected by high dirt berms to contain potential blasts, were reportedly integral to Iran’s missile production process. Eveleth noted that such mixers are costly to import and replace, and their loss could impair Iran’s missile production capabilities.
“Israel says they targeted buildings housing solid-fuel mixers,” said Eveleth. “These industrial mixers are hard to make and export-controlled. Iran imported many over the years at great expense and will likely have a hard time replacing them.”
Tactical Precision and Potential Impact on Iran’s Missile Program
The Israeli airstrikes reportedly involved “very light warheads” aimed at minimizing collateral damage while maximizing impact on strategic infrastructure, according to Iranian military officials. David Albright and Decker Eveleth both emphasize the precision of these strikes, noting their impact on Iran’s missile production capabilities and its potential to affect Iran’s future military actions.
- Solid-Fuel Mixers and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles
Solid-fuel mixers are essential in producing solid propellant, which is critical for the operational readiness and storage longevity of missiles. According to Axios, Israel allegedly destroyed 12 planetary mixers, equipment critical to the production of long-range ballistic missiles. If accurate, this action could substantially delay Iran’s missile production, potentially dissuading Tehran from launching further missile attacks against Israel.
“With a limited operation, Israel may have struck a significant blow against Iran’s ability to mass-produce missiles,” said Eveleth, “and made it more difficult for any future Iranian missile attack to pierce Israel’s missile defenses.”
- Israeli Retaliation: Context and Escalation
The Israeli military has reported three waves of airstrikes aimed at missile production sites and other sensitive military facilities near Tehran, as well as in western Iran. Israel justified the strikes as a retaliatory response to an earlier missile barrage launched by Iran on October 1, during which Tehran reportedly fired more than 200 missiles toward Israel.
The airstrikes mark a severe escalation in the longstanding tensions between the two nations, which have remained adversaries over security, territorial influence, and nuclear ambitions.
- Regional Implications of Israel’s Strikes
The destruction of missile production equipment in Iran could have several strategic consequences in the Middle East. Iran’s missile capabilities, which include the largest missile arsenal in the Middle East, are pivotal for Iran’s defense strategy and its regional influence.
Impact on Iran’s Allies and Military Exports
Iran’s extensive missile arsenal supplies several groups throughout the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and reportedly Russia in its conflict with Ukraine. US officials allege that Iran has provided missile support to Russia, though both Tehran and Moscow deny these claims.
The strikes against Iran’s missile production facilities could hinder Iran’s ability to sustain these alliances through arms support. Reducing Iran’s capacity to export missiles or replenish its own stockpile may not only impact Iran’s internal security but also its strategic leverage in proxy conflicts.
Following the strikes, Iran’s military reported that Israel’s warplanes attacked radar systems along the borders of Ilam, Khuzestan, and the areas surrounding Tehran, a defensive response to weaken Iran’s military readiness. As the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape becomes increasingly complex, both countries have doubled down on their military capabilities in response to perceived threats from the other.
Iran’s Nuclear Program Under Scrutiny
The targeting of Parchin and the Taleghan 2 building by Israel has reignited discussions on Iran’s nuclear program intentions. While international agencies, including the IAEA, maintain that Iran’s nuclear weapons program was shut down in 2003, the presence of facilities like Taleghan 2 raises concerns about potential residual capacities within Iran that could be repurposed under certain circumstances.
“Even if no equipment remained inside, [the building] would have provided intrinsic value for future nuclear weapons-related activities,” Albright observed on social media platform X.
This ambiguity has intensified regional scrutiny on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, prompting some analysts to suggest that these recent strikes are as much about disrupting Iran’s nuclear program infrastructure as they are about missile production.
The recent airstrikes appear to have benefited from Israel’s access to intelligence on Iran’s military facilities. In 2018, Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, reportedly retrieved vast quantities of classified files from Tehran related to Iran’s nuclear program, including details on facilities like Taleghan 2. The files, now in Israeli possession, are believed to provide insights that have informed recent military actions, reinforcing the importance of intelligence in Israel’s military strategy.
