In a stark escalation of tensions, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei declared on Monday that Tehran would “use all available tools” to retaliate following Israel’s targeted airstrikes on military installations within Iranian territory over the weekend. Baghaei’s statements mark a shift from Iran’s earlier approach, where officials downplayed the extent of the damage, indicating that the response, while forceful, will be measured according to the scale of the Israeli aggression.
The comments come amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, following years of mounting hostilities between Iran and Israel. The two countries, embroiled in a protracted shadow conflict, have traded airstrikes, cyberattacks, and military threats for months. Despite a call from U.S. President Joe Biden for restraint to avoid an escalation that could engulf the region in widespread conflict, Baghaei underscored that Iran’s response would be “definite and effective,” underscoring Tehran’s intent to maintain its stance of deterrence.
During his weekly televised news briefing, Baghaei emphasized that Tehran had a range of options for responding to Israeli aggression. “(Iran) will use all available tools to deliver a definite and effective response to the Zionist regime (Israel),” Baghaei said, though he did not specify which tools Iran might employ.
Baghaei’s words came after Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that the response should showcase Iran’s capabilities, though he cautioned against exaggerating or downplaying the Israeli attack. Khamenei’s guidance reflects Tehran’s strategy of striking a balance between strength and caution, a position mirrored in Iran’s state-controlled media and military doctrine. In his address, Khamenei noted that Iranian authorities would determine the most effective way to project their influence, underscoring a desire to avoid outright conflict while maintaining a credible deterrent against future Israeli actions.
According to Israeli defense officials, Saturday’s strikes involved scores of Israeli jets carrying out three waves of airstrikes before dawn. The operation targeted missile production facilities and other critical sites near Tehran and across western Iran. Israeli officials claimed that these attacks were a response to recent Iranian missile launches, allegedly fired on October 1st, which were mostly intercepted by Israel’s air defenses.
The attack on Saturday represents the latest development in a prolonged cycle of hostilities between the two nations. Since early 2023, Israel and Iran have exchanged strikes with regularity, each side accusing the other of provoking tensions and targeting civilians in the process. The Israeli government defended the latest assault as a preemptive measure to disrupt what it described as a growing threat from Iran’s expanding missile capabilities. Iranian officials, however, have dismissed these allegations, accusing Israel of seeking to destabilize Iran and provoke a full-blown conflict.
The targets reportedly included a number of sensitive military installations. Local sources reported explosions near these areas, with some eyewitnesses claiming visible damage to nearby facilities, though Iranian officials maintained that the strikes resulted in only limited losses. However, regional analysts note that the attacks likely impacted critical assets, which could spur Iran’s resolve to respond in kind.
A web of interconnected conflicts involving Iran, Israel, and their regional allies and proxies raises further concerns about escalating violence across the Middle East. Iran maintains support for both Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, organizations currently locked in intensifying conflicts with Israel. Tehran’s strategic backing for these groups underscores its goal of challenging Israeli influence and reinforcing its own as a regional power broker.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah fighters have engaged in heavy battles with Israeli forces, an ongoing conflict with deep-seated historical roots and implications for regional stability. The Lebanese militia, one of Iran’s most trusted allies, has recently amplified its military activity along Israel’s northern border, sparking fears that the skirmishes could expand into a more comprehensive conflict. Meanwhile, in the Gaza Strip, Iran-backed Hamas militants have continued their protracted confrontation with Israeli forces, further straining diplomatic efforts to establish peace.
The Middle East’s complex alliances contribute to fears that the Tehran-Jerusalem conflict could erupt into a larger, more volatile confrontation. Regional analysts have expressed concerns that escalating hostilities could draw in other state actors and non-state actors, including factions aligned with both Iran and Israel, making containment increasingly difficult.
U.S. President Joe Biden has urged both Iran and Israel to practice restraint, signaling that an all-out escalation could have catastrophic repercussions for regional and global stability. In his remarks, Biden appealed for a cessation of retaliatory attacks, stressing the importance of diplomatic efforts to prevent further violence. Washington has historically maintained alliances with Israel, but recent moves indicate an effort by the Biden administration to mitigate escalation, wary of how a prolonged conflict could impact the United States’ interests and those of its allies.
The Biden administration has maintained a cautious stance, balancing support for Israel with a broader regional policy that seeks stability through diplomatic engagements, even amid adversarial relations with Iran. U.S. officials have also expressed concern about Tehran’s support for Hezbollah and Hamas, urging Iranian leaders to rein in their allies to avoid a scenario in which a contained conflict erupts into a regional war.
As Washington attempts to moderate tensions, it has simultaneously voiced support for Israel’s right to self-defense. However, Biden has reiterated that an expansive conflict in the Middle East would only exacerbate challenges for all parties involved, particularly amidst already strained global relations and economic pressures.
Iran’s military doctrine has long emphasized strategic deterrence. As the Islamic Republic prepares its response, analysts speculate that Tehran may leverage asymmetric tactics, focusing on cyber capabilities, regional allies, or targeted strikes on Israeli assets outside of direct engagement. A cyber retaliation could be especially significant, given Iran’s well-documented cyber capabilities, which have previously targeted critical Israeli infrastructure.
Tehran’s backing of Hezbollah and Hamas represents another avenue through which Iran could exert pressure on Israel. These proxy groups, with well-established military operations, provide Tehran with indirect means to engage its adversary without the risks associated with direct confrontation. Should Iran opt to intensify its support for these groups, Israel may face heightened military challenges on multiple fronts, straining its defensive capabilities and potentially disrupting its internal security.
However, Iran’s reliance on its proxy groups is not without risks, as any overt support could prompt direct retaliatory action from Israel, potentially inviting more U.S. involvement. By balancing direct and indirect strategies, Tehran aims to maintain its influence while avoiding actions that would result in a full-scale regional war.
Inside Iran, the government’s response to Israeli aggression carries significant implications for the leadership’s domestic standing. With popular discontent simmering over economic struggles and social constraints, Iran’s political leadership must weigh the costs of a significant military commitment. Khamenei’s directive to avoid exaggerating or downplaying the incident reflects this calculus, as Tehran must carefully manage domestic expectations of decisive action while steering clear of unmanageable conflict.
On the other hand, Israel has responded with bolstered defensive measures, heightening its alert level and mobilizing additional forces along its borders. Israeli Prime Minister’s Office issued a statement calling the Iranian airstrike claims “unsubstantiated,” framing its actions as defensive measures necessitated by Iran’s ongoing threats and missile development program. Israeli intelligence officials have reiterated that Israel remains prepared for a full-scale response if Iran’s retaliation crosses a critical threshold.
For Israel, the stakes extend beyond immediate defense, as the nation seeks to maintain its strategic dominance in the region. A focused campaign aimed at degrading Iran’s missile capabilities and stalling its proxy support network aligns with Israel’s long-term security objectives, though it also risks further inflaming anti-Israel sentiment across the region.
