As the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel intensifies, Hezbollah’s newly appointed leader, Naim Qassem, has signaled openness to a potential ceasefire under specific conditions. Qassem’s statement, his first since assuming leadership of the Lebanon-based armed movement after his predecessor Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike last month, comes at a critical juncture. Israeli forces, in the meantime, have expanded their bombardment of Hezbollah-strongholds, urging civilians to evacuate areas under attack.
Qassem’s remarks reflect a shift in Hezbollah’s stance, marking a notable moment for potential negotiations. Although he committed to following Nasrallah’s strategy of “resisting” Israeli incursions, he left the door open to a ceasefire should Israel present a credible offer. “If the Israelis decide that they want to stop the aggression, we say we accept, but under the conditions that we see as appropriate and suitable,” Qassem declared. He underscored that Hezbollah would not “beg for a ceasefire” but would consider a halt to hostilities if certain demands were met.
As violence escalates in Lebanon, Israeli officials have been meeting to discuss possible terms for a truce. Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen confirmed that the security cabinet was reviewing potential conditions that could facilitate a ceasefire with Hezbollah. Israeli media reports suggest that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a high-level discussion to assess terms for a 60-day truce, which would involve Hezbollah’s withdrawal to positions north of the Litani River and the Lebanese state deploying its army along the border.
“There are discussions, but I think it will still take time,” Cohen said on Israeli public radio. Cohen stressed that Israel, after months of operations, believes it has a stronger bargaining position following the assassination of Hezbollah’s top leaders and the dismantling of significant militant infrastructure. He argued that “Israel can come in a position of strength after the entire Hezbollah leadership was eliminated and over 2000 Hezbollah terrorist infrastructures were hit.”
Further international involvement appears imminent. U.S. President Joe Biden’s Middle East adviser Brett McGurk, along with special envoy Amos Hochstein, is set to visit Israel for discussions on a potential truce. The proposed framework aligns with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which outlines Lebanese army deployment and the presence of UN peacekeepers south of the Litani River to enforce peace in the region.
While diplomatic moves unfold, Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon continues with a renewed intensity. Following warnings from Israeli forces to residents in Baalbek, a key Hezbollah stronghold in eastern Lebanon, airstrikes targeted areas within the city. Baalbek’s mayor, Mustafa al-Shall, confirmed multiple strikes on the city and its surroundings. Lebanon’s state media reported that Israeli warplanes carried out a series of bombings on the city’s Asira area, raising fears of further casualties and destruction.
Since the conflict erupted last month, the Lebanese Health Ministry has reported at least 1,754 fatalities, although official estimates are likely conservative. Lebanese sources suggest that the death toll could be higher due to inconsistent data from conflict zones. In comparison, Israel’s ground operations in Lebanon, which began on September 30, have claimed the lives of 37 Israeli soldiers.
This conflict marks a resurgence in hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, triggered by Hezbollah’s support for Hamas in Gaza. Hezbollah began sporadic cross-border attacks on Israel shortly after Hamas launched a deadly assault on October 7, 2023, killing over 1,200 Israelis.
Simultaneously, the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza persists with devastating consequences. The latest Israeli airstrikes targeted Beit Lahia, a district in northern Gaza, collapsing a building and resulting in 93 fatalities, including many children, according to Gaza’s civil defense agency. The United States expressed concern, with the U.S. State Department describing the incident as “horrifying” and calling on Israel for an explanation. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) cited severe supply shortages in Gaza, noting that October saw limited food distribution and critical gaps in healthcare services.
In efforts to negotiate a humanitarian pause in Gaza, top officials from the U.S., Israel, and Qatar have engaged in high-level discussions. CIA Director Bill Burns and Mossad Chief David Barnea, alongside Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, held talks in Doha over the weekend to explore a short-term truce in Gaza. The proposed ceasefire, said to last less than a month, includes the potential exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons, as well as increased humanitarian aid to Gaza.
A Hamas spokesperson, however, indicated that while the group was open to dialogue, any ceasefire terms must include Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. The official said Hamas has not yet received a comprehensive ceasefire proposal.
The impact of sustained hostilities has left Lebanon and Gaza in a humanitarian crisis, with civilian infrastructure strained to its breaking point. According to UNOCHA, health facilities across Gaza have been largely incapacitated, with only two hospitals and a handful of service points partially operational. The World Food Programme (WFP) warned that 1.7 million Gazans, representing 80% of the population, lack access to regular food supplies. A similar crisis looms in Lebanon, where civilians face a shortage of critical supplies amid unrelenting airstrikes.
The stakes of the humanitarian situation have compelled global powers to push for a ceasefire, but deep-rooted political challenges persist. The conflict in Gaza has led to 43,163 Palestinian deaths, most of them civilians, according to Gaza’s health ministry, a figure corroborated by the United Nations.
For Hezbollah, led by Qassem, the ceasefire talks represent both an opportunity to protect Lebanese civilians and a political tightrope. Qassem’s statement balancing continued resistance with a conditional acceptance of peace underscores Hezbollah’s complex role as both a political and military actor. Meanwhile, Israel’s demands for a Hezbollah retreat and the deployment of Lebanese troops reflect Israel’s insistence on security guarantees before agreeing to a truce.
The response from regional powers remains a crucial factor. Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein’s upcoming visit signals continued U.S. engagement, with Washington hoping a short-term agreement in Gaza could lay the groundwork for broader peace. The role of Qatar as an intermediary adds another layer, as it has previously facilitated negotiations between Israel and Hamas.
The outcome of these efforts is uncertain, with political and ideological divides running deep. However, with Hezbollah’s willingness to negotiate and Israel’s security cabinet open to discussing terms, there may be a narrow path toward de-escalation in Lebanon. Yet, as the conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza persist, civilians bear the brunt of the violence, highlighting the urgency of a diplomatic solution.
