- As Washington’s policies shape regional stability, Pakistanis speculate on the impact of a second Trump administration on Islamabad’s ties with the United States, China, and regional dynamics.
With the United States nearing the culmination of its presidential race, the election has captured attention well beyond American borders. Thousands of miles away in Pakistan, some observers and citizens alike are vested in the outcome, hoping that Republican nominee Donald Trump will secure a victory over Democratic rival Kamala Harris on November 5. For them, the choice reflects more than mere foreign policy; it’s a potential pivot in Pakistan’s standing in the world, given the past rapport between Trump and Pakistan’s former Prime Minister, Imran Khan.
Both Trump and Khan have cultivated reputations as populist leaders, known for their rejection of conventional norms and willingness to challenge the status quo. Their brief history as counterparts during Trump’s first term remains fresh in many minds, particularly their 2019 meeting at the White House, which some analysts viewed as a high point in recent U.S.-Pakistan relations. As the upcoming U.S. election looms, Pakistanis wonder if a second Trump administration could influence internal politics in Islamabad, affect military aid, and sway Pakistan’s delicate balancing act between the United States and China.
The connection between Trump and Khan resonates deeply within Pakistan, where Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) remains the country’s largest political party despite his ousting from power in 2022 and subsequent imprisonment on corruption charges. The charismatic leadership styles of both Trump and Khan—often seen as brash and populist—garnered support from diverse demographics within their respective nations.
Former Pakistani Foreign Minister Khurram Dastgir Khan remarked on this similarity, suggesting that both leaders embrace a transactional approach to politics. “Both Mr. Khan and Mr. Trump don’t feel bound by norms. They are both willing to say and do whatever they feel will get them into power,” he explained. This shared populist style leads some of Khan’s supporters to hope that Trump’s re-election could prompt Washington to support the former Pakistani premier’s release and re-engagement in Pakistani politics.
However, PTI leaders have downplayed these expectations, asserting a willingness to work with any U.S. administration, regardless of party affiliation. PTI’s general secretary Salman Akram Raja clarified the party’s stance, saying, “Our view is that the PTI is willing to work with whatever U.S. administration comes about, and all U.S. administrations would want to work with the PTI.”
The U.S.-Pakistan relationship, while historically marked by cooperation, has been equally defined by periods of tension, especially concerning America’s strategic goals in South Asia. During Trump’s presidency, his administration took a more stringent approach towards Pakistan, cutting $300 million in military aid and accusing Islamabad of failing to address militant groups on its soil. This action marked a low point for bilateral relations, especially as Trump simultaneously enhanced security cooperation with India, Pakistan’s longstanding rival.
The end of Trump’s term and the arrival of President Joe Biden brought a shift. While Biden restored some military assistance, his administration also shifted its focus to economic support, with a particular emphasis on technology and renewable energy investments in Pakistan. These policies aligned with Biden’s climate agenda and Pakistan’s increasing energy needs. However, tensions resurfaced with Washington’s concerns over Pakistan’s deepening relationship with China, especially in defense and missile technology development. This situation has left Pakistan caught in a balancing act between two superpowers with contrasting agendas in the region.
China has consistently increased its economic and military footprint in Pakistan, a relationship that has evolved over the past two decades through projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and enhanced defense cooperation. With more than $60 billion invested in CPEC infrastructure projects since 2015, China’s influence in Pakistan has grown, raising alarm in Washington. Many U.S. policymakers view Pakistan’s growing reliance on China as a potential gateway for Beijing to expand its influence in South Asia, a key region for U.S. geopolitical interests.
Analysts argue that, regardless of the upcoming U.S. presidential election’s outcome, the next administration will likely continue to express unease over Pakistan’s warming ties with China. Political analyst Hamid Mir suggests that Pakistan’s efforts to balance its relationships with both superpowers may reach a breaking point, asserting that “Pakistan cannot balance between China and the United States. Pakistan has to make a choice on ‘who is (its) best friend.’”
For some PTI supporters, Trump’s potential return offers a glimmer of hope for Imran Khan’s release, as they perceive Trump’s stance toward Pakistan as transactional and, possibly, pragmatic in its willingness to overlook certain political controversies. The belief that Washington holds substantial sway over Pakistani politics persists among some Khan supporters, who hope that Trump could leverage his presidency to pressure Islamabad for Khan’s release. However, as PTI leaders underscore, there is no guarantee that U.S. intervention could alter Pakistan’s domestic legal decisions regarding Khan’s corruption charges.
Others in Pakistan recognize that the larger implications of a Trump presidency may not align with these supporters’ hopes. Trump’s previous term saw reductions in U.S. military assistance to Pakistan and a growing partnership with India, developments that strained ties between Washington and Islamabad. This history of fluctuating support complicates the narrative that a second Trump presidency would be wholly advantageous for Pakistan.
The outcome of the U.S. presidential race will likely have broader regional implications as well, particularly for Pakistan’s involvement in Afghan stability. With the Taliban now back in control, Pakistan’s role in managing security along its border with Afghanistan has become increasingly critical. Trump’s prior push to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan marked a pivot in regional dynamics, and another Trump administration might adopt a similar stance, reducing American involvement in Afghanistan.
Yet, as Pakistan contends with cross-border security challenges and regional militancy, there are concerns that a more hands-off approach from Washington could exacerbate regional instability. A Democratic administration under Kamala Harris, on the other hand, may take a different approach to security and diplomacy in the region, seeking a balance between maintaining influence in Afghanistan and addressing Pakistan’s security concerns through continued cooperation.
Beyond military aid and geopolitical maneuvers, the U.S.-Pakistan relationship also encompasses economic and developmental goals, areas where Biden’s policies offered promising engagement. His administration emphasized technology partnerships, climate resilience, and support for Pakistan’s green energy sector, aligning well with Pakistan’s developmental priorities. If Trump were to take office again, however, the economic component of U.S.-Pakistan relations could shift, as his previous term was less focused on collaborative developmental projects.
Pakistan’s tech and energy sectors, which benefited from recent American investments, could potentially see reduced support under a second Trump term if his administration prioritizes military concerns over economic ties. Conversely, a Harris administration might continue Biden’s approach of diversifying the U.S.-Pakistan relationship by emphasizing economic growth and technology-driven initiatives, areas that remain crucial for Pakistan’s long-term development.
As Pakistan treads carefully between the world’s largest economies, the election outcome poses a significant diplomatic test for Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government. His administration’s ability to handle relations with the next U.S. president, whether Democrat or Republican, will be pivotal in determining Pakistan’s future alliances and development trajectory.
Should Pakistan opt for a closer alignment with China, it risks alienating American support and potentially jeopardizing its access to certain forms of military and economic aid. Conversely, should it move towards stronger U.S. ties, it would need to carefully manage its Chinese partnership, a pillar of its recent economic and infrastructural development. The result of this balancing act will reveal much about Pakistan’s strategic direction and its ability to sustain cooperative relationships with both superpowers.
