The election of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency in 2016 sent ripples through East Asia, prompting significant recalibration among economic policymakers on the region’s reliance on U.S. leadership in global trade. Today, the question is no longer just about one administration’s policies but about a lasting American shift toward economic protectionism and isolationism that could persist regardless of who wins the 2024 election.
In the wake of Trump’s ascension, the framework of global trade governance has fundamentally altered, particularly for the East Asia-Pacific region. Faced with “America First” rhetoric, harsh tariffs, and a transactional approach to trade, Asian economic strategists had to rethink their traditional reliance on U.S.-led global economic integration. Instead, the past eight years have nudged these economies toward regionalism, intra-Asian partnerships, and a more self-sufficient economic strategy—one which may prove essential for stability regardless of future U.S. electoral outcomes.
Even with a new Democratic administration, a second Trump term in office, or a hypothetical Kamala Harris presidency, Asian economies remain skeptical about a U.S. return to its former role as a bastion of multilateral trade. In fact, the very foundations of East Asia’s trade and investment strategies have shifted as leaders in the region adjust to the hard reality that the U.S. may continue to avoid deep re-engagement in multilateral trade diplomacy.
“America First” Doctrine and Its Impact
The “America First” doctrine has embedded itself in the U.S. economic landscape and gained bipartisan appeal. Trump’s initial policies, once considered radical, have since become mainstream. This includes high tariffs, particularly the sweeping tariffs on China that have remained in place even during President Joe Biden’s administration. Under Biden, the U.S. continued to view China as a strategic rival, maintaining the tariffs and further consolidating decoupling strategies, particularly in sensitive industries such as semiconductors and critical infrastructure.
This new trade paradigm has been equally embraced by Democrats and Republicans, with Kamala Harris promising episodic tariffs on China if elected. Democrats, despite distancing themselves from the extremities of Trumpian trade policies, have refrained from returning to the free-trade liberalism once celebrated in Washington. Instead, their “middle-class economic diplomacy” and emphasis on reshoring domestic industries showcase a commitment to nationalistic trade policies that bear more similarities to Trump’s approach than contrasts.
In effect, the bipartisan embrace of protectionism means that Asian economies can no longer assume a U.S.-driven global trade structure. From 2016 onwards, East Asia has faced the need to fill the gaps left by American disengagement from multilateral economic leadership, shifting focus towards regional partnerships and trade agreements independent of the U.S. influence.
East Asia: Recalibrating to New Realities
With a retreating U.S., East Asian policymakers are recalibrating their approach to trade. This shift is marked by three fundamental strategies: regional solidarity, openness, and activism.
- Regional Solidarity
Solidarity within Asia, especially among countries with strong U.S. security ties such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, has become critical. These countries must consider the broader interests of Southeast Asian and non-aligned nations when engaging with the U.S. on trade, so as not to compromise regional stability by prioritizing individual deals over the regional good. A renewed regionalism requires stronger intra-regional alliances that resist the urge for special bilateral agreements with the U.S. at the expense of neighboring economies.This cohesion is all the more crucial should Trump reclaim the presidency in 2024. Another term for Trump could solidify the U.S.’s retreat from multilateralism, reinforcing Asia’s need to maintain unity against the unpredictability of American trade policies.
- Commitment to Openness
East Asian leaders are also advocating for openness within the region as they work to mitigate the risks of decoupling from the U.S. without isolating China, Asia’s largest trading partner. Open regionalism, as a guiding principle, has spurred frameworks for engaging with both the U.S. and China, fostering economic diversity and encouraging a multilateral orientation, despite American absence. East Asia’s leaders recognize the need to develop systems and partnerships that remain adaptable and inclusive, especially if the U.S. continues to pursue bilateral deals based on political expediency rather than multilateral commitments. - Activism in Global Trade Governance
Without U.S. leadership, East Asia has taken on an activist role to uphold multilateral trade principles. This activism includes supporting and bolstering the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) existing structures, particularly the Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement, a contingency mechanism designed to address trade disputes in the absence of a functioning WTO Appellate Body. East Asia’s diplomatic outreach aims to ensure that when, or if, the U.S. re-engages in multilateral trade, the institutional groundwork remains intact.
Strategic Adaptations in Action
The most prominent outcome of Asia’s shift toward regional solidarity and openness has been the formation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), signed in 2020. The RCEP marked a historic move toward regional integration and economic resilience among 15 countries, including China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. The agreement represents over 30% of global GDP and population, demonstrating Asia’s determination to promote multilateral trade without depending on U.S. involvement.
For East Asian economies, RCEP provides an avenue for tariff reductions, investment protections, and enhanced market access that can partially counterbalance the economic drag of U.S. tariffs. While not without its challenges, RCEP offers a foundation for strengthening regional economic linkages and insulating the region from erratic shifts in American trade policy.
Looking Beyond the 2024 Election
Regardless of whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins the 2024 U.S. election, the trajectory of U.S. trade policy is expected to remain fundamentally unchanged. Both candidates have signaled a commitment to nationalistic trade practices, with Harris proposing episodic tariffs and Trump advocating blanket tariffs on all imports, potentially escalating the trade conflict with China. Therefore, Asian leaders are preparing for a U.S. that is not only less committed to multilateral trade but one that may actively challenge Asia’s economic rise by targeting specific industries and markets in the region.
Asian economies are, consequently, positioning themselves to be resilient against American economic nationalism. Through multilateralism, reinforced by frameworks like RCEP, and proactive diplomatic engagements, Asian policymakers are crafting a more self-reliant regional order. This reoriented strategy allows East Asia to thrive and innovate within a global trade environment that no longer depends on U.S. leadership or approval.
Challenges and Opportunities
The implications of America’s retreat from global trade governance extend beyond economic strategies; they impact the very political stability of the region. As Asia seeks to maintain growth and stability, the divergence between U.S. and Asian economic interests raises questions about long-term alliances and the future of American influence in the Pacific.
One of the immediate challenges for East Asia will be maintaining the delicate balance between economic openness with China and the strategic alignment with the U.S. that countries like Japan and South Korea value for security reasons. If U.S. economic policy continues on its protectionist path, Asian countries may find themselves compelled to reevaluate these security alliances, especially if they lead to economic compromises.
To mitigate these challenges, East Asia has the chance to become a leader in the next phase of global economic diplomacy. By fortifying its regional institutions and expanding agreements with non-U.S. partners in Europe, Africa, and Latin America, Asia can ensure that its economic growth is not solely reliant on the U.S. or China.
Asian economies are also focusing on technology and green energy collaborations, which can act as neutral arenas for cooperation even when geopolitical tensions are high. Through innovation and strategic diversification, Asia can secure a sustainable path forward that both capitalizes on its strengths and manages external dependencies.
