Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that North Korea had begun transferring military personnel to Russia On October 13, Signaling an unprecedented escalation in the diplomatic and military partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang. Just days after Zelensky’s statement, Ukrainian intelligence reported that the first units from North Korea had arrived in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, directly supporting Russian forces. This comes amid increasing evidence of North Korea supplying Russia with artillery shells, anti-tank systems, rocket launchers, and other military assets.
The newly intensified North Korea-Russia alliance was further cemented with the signing of a comprehensive security pact in June 2024. Under the “Treaty on the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership,” North Korea and Russia committed to mutual military support, elevating the potential for both regional and global security ramifications. This article examines the complex web of interests underpinning the partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang, its impact on U.S.-South Korea relations, and the broader implications for stability in the Asia-Pacific region.
In an unprecedented move, North Korea has begun sending military personnel to Russia, marking a deepening of military cooperation beyond the longstanding exchange of weapons. Following Zelensky’s October 13 announcement, Ukrainian intelligence revealed that North Korean soldiers had arrived in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, likely intended to bolster Russian efforts in Ukraine’s eastern front. While the precise number of personnel remains unknown, Ukrainian sources claim that their arrival is the latest in a series of escalations intended to reinforce Russian troops.
Since 2022, North Korea has reportedly supplied Russia with over three million artillery shells and other forms of military aid. The volume and frequency of these shipments have significantly increased throughout 2023 and 2024. U.S. and South Korean intelligence suggest that North Korea has sent containers filled with arms—over 16,500 munitions containers by some estimates. These shipments violate multiple United Nations sanctions, underlining the limited effectiveness of international pressure on North Korea’s arms export activities.
Economic sanctions against North Korea have long aimed to restrict Pyongyang’s ability to fund its nuclear and missile programs. However, the current trend of increasing arms trade between North Korea and Russia indicates the sanctions have done little to curb Pyongyang’s willingness or ability to supply weapons internationally. In fact, North Korea’s economic relationship with Russia, bolstered by illicit arms deals, has granted the regime a viable revenue stream, reducing its economic dependence on China and alleviating some of the financial strain of sanctions.
In June 2024, North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the “Treaty on the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership,” a significant development in their bilateral relations. The treaty’s Article 4 states that both nations will provide “military and other assistance by all means available” should either face an armed attack or enter a state of war. This clause mirrors Cold War-era defense pacts, reaffirming Moscow and Pyongyang’s willingness to support each other militarily.
The alliance’s escalation does not only create regional security risks but also raises concerns about an unchecked arms trade between two authoritarian states. Russia’s access to North Korean weaponry enables it to prolong its war efforts, while North Korea gains further diplomatic leverage against the United States and its allies.
The Russo-North Korean relationship has deep roots, dating back to the Cold War. During that era, both countries were part of the communist bloc, cooperating to counterbalance the influence of the United States and its allies. While relations cooled after the fall of the Soviet Union, recent sanctions and diplomatic isolation have driven Russia and North Korea back together.
The recent treaty, therefore, represents more than just a strategic alliance between two nations facing international condemnation. It is a demonstration of Russia and North Korea’s willingness to defy Western influence and emboldens other authoritarian regimes to seek similar partnerships. This growing alignment poses significant implications for U.S. foreign policy, particularly as Washington continues to balance its commitments in Europe and the Asia-Pacific.
With North Korea’s military support for Russia now visible, the security concerns for South Korea have intensified. As a result, a growing number of South Koreans—76.6% according to recent polls—express support for developing a domestic nuclear weapons program. This shift in public opinion reflects waning confidence in the U.S. security umbrella and a perception that Washington’s response to North Korea’s nuclear program has been inadequate.
The increase in support for an independent nuclear deterrent is partly fueled by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s criticisms during his term, where he accused South Korea of relying too heavily on the U.S. military. Trump’s rhetoric created a rift in the alliance, which President Biden and subsequent administrations have attempted to mend. Nonetheless, the perception remains that South Korea’s security interests are secondary to broader U.S. strategic goals, a sentiment likely to persist unless Washington takes more assertive steps to reassure Seoul.
The November 2024 U.S. presidential election could bring significant shifts in American foreign policy. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has stated that she would continue existing security dialogues, including the Nuclear Consultation Group and the Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group. However, her emphasis on continuity may not fully address South Korean concerns over North Korea’s military developments and the implications of its alliance with Russia.
A Harris administration would likely adopt a policy of cautious engagement, similar to the Biden administration’s approach, focusing on deterrence rather than negotiation with North Korea. However, even with strong rhetoric against North Korea’s provocations, many experts argue that Washington’s current policy framework needs to adapt to a new reality: North Korea’s nuclear program is now so advanced that denuclearization is increasingly unrealistic.
Washington has historically emphasized the goal of “complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization” (CVID) of North Korea. However, the continued expansion of Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal, coupled with the deepening Russia-North Korea military cooperation, suggests that CVID may no longer be a feasible or effective approach. Some U.S. officials and analysts argue that the U.S. should instead focus on preventing the use of North Korea’s nuclear weapons, with an emphasis on missile defense systems and regional deterrence.
This shift in strategy would involve closer collaboration with South Korea and Japan, alongside diplomatic efforts to disrupt arms trading channels between North Korea and Russia. In particular, better intelligence-sharing between Washington and Seoul is critical, as discrepancies in munitions shipment estimates—16,500 containers versus South Korea’s estimate of 13,000—highlight gaps in coordination and monitoring.
To counter the Russia-North Korea alliance, the U.S. and South Korea must not only strengthen their deterrence capabilities but also work towards diplomatic channels that discourage further arms sales. This may involve applying targeted sanctions on North Korean intermediaries involved in weapons sales and pressuring countries involved in these transactions. The U.S. could also pursue more direct diplomatic engagement with Pyongyang, an approach that, while controversial, may prove necessary given the regime’s expanding arsenal.
The Russia-North Korea alliance has profound implications for security in Northeast Asia. South Korea and Japan are increasingly concerned about the possibility of North Korea leveraging its strengthened position to coerce regional actors or even expand its nuclear arsenal without fear of reprisal. Japan, in particular, has voiced concerns about North Korea’s recent ballistic missile tests, calling for increased defense spending and closer security ties with the United States.
China’s role in this dynamic is also crucial. Although Beijing has historically maintained some degree of influence over Pyongyang, North Korea’s growing alignment with Russia may alter China’s calculus. While China remains North Korea’s primary economic lifeline, Pyongyang’s willingness to defy Beijing on certain matters may encourage China to recalibrate its support or distance itself diplomatically, especially if North Korea’s actions threaten regional stability.
The evolving North Korea-Russia partnership underscores the need for the United States and its allies to reassess their strategies in Northeast Asia.
- Enhanced Intelligence Sharing: Bridging intelligence-sharing gaps between the U.S. and South Korea to accurately monitor arms transfers and military movements between Russia and North Korea.
- Strengthened Military Alliances: Increasing military collaboration with South Korea and Japan to reinforce regional deterrence against both North Korea and potential Chinese aggression.
- Targeted Sanctions and Diplomatic Channels: Applying sanctions on North Korean entities involved in arms trades while exploring diplomatic avenues to reduce tensions.
- Public Communication: Reassuring South Korean citizens of U.S. commitment to the alliance to curb support for independent nuclear capabilities, which could destabilize the region.
