As Kamala Harris approaches the final stretch of her campaign to secure the American presidency, the world is closely watching the trajectory of her climate legacy. Dr. Vinod Thomas, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute and former senior vice president at the World Bank, recalls a moment emblematic of Harris’s commitment to climate action: her decisive tie-breaking vote in August 2022, which passed the landmark Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). “That legislation unleashed hundreds of billions of dollars into building clean energy and electric car capacity,” Thomas notes, emphasizing that if Harris is elected, this legacy could be expanded to bring even more transformative impacts.
The IRA stands as one of the largest federal investments in clean energy, aiming to propel the U.S. toward energy independence while addressing climate change. However, the sharp political divide on climate remains a major challenge. As evidenced by a 2023 Chicago Council Survey, while 82 percent of Democrats view climate change as a critical threat, only 16 percent of Republicans share this view. The outcome of the election could heavily influence U.S. climate policy in the coming years, especially as the nation heads into the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Azerbaijan, scheduled just six days after the election.
The Inflation Reduction Act was passed during a deeply divided Senate session, with Harris casting the decisive vote. The Act allocates $400 billion to promote clean energy projects, aiming to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. The funding encompasses tax incentives, infrastructure grants, and investments designed to create approximately 1 million new jobs by 2030. The broad investment seeks to spur technological advancements, including wind and solar energy projects, electric vehicles, and battery storage.
While the IRA has already made significant strides in clean energy development, Harris has maintained a cautious campaign approach to avoid alienating fossil fuel-reliant regions. According to Dr. Carolyn Kissane, director of the SPS Energy, Climate Justice, and Sustainability Lab at NYU, “It’s a very fine line in the United States for a politician when it comes to energy and climate.” For Harris, balancing her climate-forward stance with a tempered approach toward fossil fuel industries remains essential for navigating the sensitivities of American voters.
This election is taking place in the wake of two powerful hurricanes, Helene and Milton, which wreaked havoc across multiple states, resulting in hundreds of fatalities and billions of dollars in damages. Dr. Ben Clarke from Imperial College London confirmed that these storms were significantly intensified by climate change, with Helene’s winds and rainfall amplified by 11 and 10 percent, respectively. President Joe Biden, while surveying the destruction, stated, “Nobody can deny the impact of the climate crisis anymore,” urging Americans to acknowledge the growing risks of inaction.
Despite the visible impacts of climate change, Harris’s climate message has often taken a back seat in her campaign, as some view it as politically risky. Fossil fuel reliance remains a key factor in battleground states, and the powerful lobbying efforts by oil and gas companies contribute to the tightrope she must walk. In 2022, the industry spent $124.4 million on lobbying, illustrating the depth of its influence on American politics.
Donald Trump, Harris’s opponent, has continued to champion fossil fuel industries, promising to bolster U.S. oil and gas production and even revive coal. He has dubbed the IRA the “green new scam” and has vowed to dismantle it if elected. In a speech after the hurricanes, he labeled climate change “one of the greatest frauds in history.” Trump’s campaign rhetoric targets voters wary of rising energy costs and protective of traditional energy industries, a perspective that resonates with a significant portion of the electorate.
Despite Trump’s strong stance against renewable energy, experts argue that clean technology investment has become a bipartisan success story. Rystad Energy, an independent research firm, reported that conservative states, including Texas, Iowa, and Oklahoma, are now at the forefront of renewable energy infrastructure, with projections showing substantial growth by 2030 in areas like battery cell manufacturing, solar PV production, hydrogen generation, and carbon capture technology. Lars Nitter Havro, Rystad’s head of Energy Macro Research, emphasized, “Cleantech is increasingly becoming a bipartisan success story in the U.S.,” highlighting that regional economic growth, rather than federal policy, could sustain these sectors’ progress regardless of the election outcome.
Harris, however, faces criticisms from environmental advocates who argue that the IRA’s incentives sometimes support “false solutions” such as fossil-based hydrogen and carbon capture storage. Critics, including Allie Rosenbluth from Oil Change, claim that such measures undermine the Act’s environmental intentions, particularly in cases where funding supports fossil fuel technologies under the guise of emissions reduction.
The election’s proximity to COP29 could amplify its global significance. As a major global emitter, the U.S. plays a pivotal role in climate leadership, both financially and politically. Should Trump be re-elected, his skepticism toward multilateral climate efforts could undermine global momentum, especially if the U.S. steps back from its commitments. Trump has previously withdrawn the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, and his campaign rhetoric has indicated he may do so again. In contrast, Harris’s victory would likely signal continued U.S. engagement with global climate initiatives.
COP29 in Baku is set to focus on climate finance, with discussions expected to revolve around mobilizing funding for mitigation and adaptation efforts worldwide. As trustee of the Loss and Damage Fund, the U.S. could influence financial support for developing nations affected by climate change. According to Dr. Thomas, “If the U.S. steps back, it could relieve other nations from feeling the urgency to act and contribute,” underscoring the broader implications of American climate leadership on global action.
The rivalry between the U.S. and China also looms over global climate cooperation. Both nations are major players in renewable energy technology, particularly solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles. Erica Downs, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, notes that “US-China cooperation can play an important role in encouraging other countries to step up climate action.” However, geopolitical tensions and competition over clean energy supply chains remain significant barriers.
The Biden administration has sought to protect U.S. clean energy industries through tariffs and other trade measures against China, a policy that experts expect Harris to continue if elected. The U.S. seeks to nurture its clean energy sector without sacrificing American businesses to Chinese competition, but any shift in this approach could have wide-ranging impacts on international trade dynamics and the accessibility of green technology globally.
Although Harris has largely avoided a strong anti-fossil fuel stance, the expansion of oil and gas production under the Biden administration complicates her position. Despite the IRA, the U.S. remains the world’s largest oil and gas producer, with fossil fuel production at record levels. Climate Action Tracker, an independent scientific project, has rated U.S. climate policies as “insufficient” for achieving a global temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius, citing that the U.S. is only about one-third of the way toward its 2030 emissions reduction goal. The Tracker warns that without significant reductions in fossil fuel reliance, the country’s climate targets will remain out of reach.
Harris to navigate between climate commitments and practical energy needs. In some instances, she has expressed support for fracking, a position that has led some environmentalists to question the sincerity of her green agenda. Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign underscores his commitment to making the U.S. a global leader in fossil fuel production, which resonates with energy-rich states and some working-class voters concerned about energy prices.
