The United States will continue its supportive approach toward Taiwan regardless of the outcome of its presidential election, a senior Taiwanese security official stated on Wednesday, November 6. Amid a fiercely competitive race between Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, Taiwan is preparing for any potential challenges posed by China during the anticipated U.S. government transition.
Taiwan’s National Security Bureau Director-General Tsai Ming-yen emphasized that maintaining strong Taiwan-U.S. relations is paramount, as Taiwan braces for an intensified period of military and diplomatic pressure from Beijing. He noted the uncertainty surrounding the election’s result but expressed confidence that Washington’s approach toward Taiwan will remain one of friendship and support. “On relations across the Taiwan Strait, we believe that the United States will continue its current approach of constraining China and being friendly to Taiwan,” Tsai told reporters in Taiwan’s parliament.
The U.S. presidential election has captivated both domestic and international audiences, especially given the implications for foreign policy in Asia. Former President Donald Trump, a candidate known for his assertive stance on trade with China, has criticized Taiwan on the campaign trail, claiming the island “owes” the United States for its defense and even suggesting that Taiwan is undermining the U.S. semiconductor industry. His statements have caused concern among some in Taiwan, who view Trump’s comments as signals of a potential policy shift. In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris has pledged to continue the Biden administration’s policy of firm support for Taiwan.
The heightened political tension in the United States, combined with intense international scrutiny, has left Taiwan vigilant in case China seizes the opportunity to exploit potential vulnerabilities. Should Trump win the presidency, Taiwan faces the challenge of navigating his evolving foreign policy stance. If Harris prevails, the status quo in the U.S.-Taiwan relationship is expected to largely remain unchanged, though analysts speculate that adjustments could be made to further bolster security partnerships in the region.
Over the past five years, Taiwan has endured mounting military pressure from China, which views the self-governed island as an integral part of its territory. Since 2022, China has conducted four large-scale military exercises, often simulating attacks on Taiwan and testing the island’s defensive capabilities. These exercises are part of China’s broader strategy to intimidate Taiwan and dissuade it from pursuing closer ties with the United States and other Western countries.
According to Tsai, Taiwan’s National Security Bureau has remained in close communication with the U.S. administration throughout this turbulent election period. “Taiwan will continue communication with the current administration, focusing on key issues for cooperation in the next phase,” he said. This collaboration includes exchanging intelligence on China’s military maneuvers, which Taiwan fears could escalate as Beijing attempts to take advantage of the U.S. government’s transitional phase.
Taiwan is also actively working with other international allies to monitor and counter any potential aggressive actions from China. By strengthening alliances and pooling resources with other democratic nations, Taiwan aims to fortify its defenses and diminish the effectiveness of China’s pressure tactics.
The Taiwan Strait has long been a flashpoint of geopolitical tension, and with the upcoming transition in the U.S. government, concerns over stability in the region have grown. Since the U.S. formalized its support for Taiwan through the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, it has been Taiwan’s most critical supporter, providing military equipment, intelligence-sharing capabilities, and diplomatic support despite the absence of formal diplomatic ties.
For Taiwan, the United States’ continued military backing is crucial, especially as China intensifies its activities in the South China Sea and around the Taiwan Strait. Many analysts believe China could potentially increase its activities in the region if it perceives any diplomatic or military weaknesses during the U.S. transition.
Beijing, for its part, has consistently emphasized that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China and has criticized U.S. arms sales and official visits to the island as provocations. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office declined to comment on Taiwan’s security preparations or its approach to the U.S. election. However, official Chinese statements have reiterated Beijing’s commitment to reunification with Taiwan, by force if necessary.
Taiwanese leaders have adopted a three-pronged strategy to deter Chinese aggression during the transition period: bolstering defense readiness, coordinating diplomatically with allies, and enhancing economic resilience.
Defense Readiness: Taiwan’s military forces remain on high alert. Over the past year, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense has introduced new training regimens, invested in advanced defense systems, and pursued increased arms purchases from the United States, including upgraded missile systems and anti-aircraft weaponry.
Diplomatic Coordination: Beyond military measures, Taiwan is leveraging its diplomatic relationships to foster a more comprehensive international response to any Chinese aggression. Taiwan has been engaging with regional allies, including Japan, South Korea, and Australia, and deepening partnerships with the European Union and the United Kingdom. Tsai mentioned that intelligence-sharing agreements have been critical for Taiwan to receive up-to-the-minute updates on Chinese movements in the region.
Economic Resilience: Taiwan is also fortifying its economy to withstand potential disruptions from China. The island is home to several of the world’s largest semiconductor companies, which manufacture chips vital for global technology and defense sectors. Although Trump has accused Taiwan of “stealing” American semiconductor business, Taiwan is, in reality, a key contributor to the global semiconductor supply chain. Taiwanese officials have reassured both domestic and international partners that they are committed to maintaining steady production, reinforcing the island’s role as a reliable economic partner amid uncertain political tides.
For decades, U.S. policy has aimed to balance relations with both China and Taiwan, walking a tightrope of strategic ambiguity. This has allowed the U.S. to avoid committing explicitly to Taiwan’s defense while providing arms and training to prepare the island for potential conflict. Despite Trump’s comments, both his and Harris’s campaigns have indicated support for Taiwan’s defense in various ways. Trump’s statements on Taiwan contributing more to its own defense align with his prior calls for allied nations to increase their defense spending, a hallmark of his “America First” approach.
On the other hand, Harris has aligned her platform with the Biden administration’s policies, emphasizing multilateralism, alliance-building, and human rights. Her statements have underscored a commitment to uphold the democratic values that Taiwan represents, positioning the island as a vital component of the broader U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy.
China’s actions in the Taiwan Strait are influenced by its own strategic priorities, including domestic political stability and its vision of regional dominance. President Xi Jinping has repeatedly articulated his commitment to “reunification,” describing it as integral to the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” Analysts believe that if Beijing perceives an opportunity to exert pressure on Taiwan with reduced risk of U.S. intervention, it may ramp up its efforts.
Yet China faces significant risks should it choose to escalate. A military conflict in the Taiwan Strait could disrupt global trade, particularly in the technology sector, where Taiwan is a central player. It could also draw in U.S. allies in the region, complicating China’s ambitions and threatening its economic interests.
