In October 1950, barely a year after the conclusion of the Chinese Civil War, Mao Zedong made the decision to send the first Chinese soldiers to support North Korea in the Korean War. The ensuing battle claimed the lives of between 180,000 and 400,000 Chinese soldiers, including Mao’s own son. Defending North Korea was crucial, Mao famously remarked, since “without the lips, the teeth are cold.” This idiom, evoking a symbiotic dependency, has characterized the China-North Korea relationship for more than seven decades. China sees North Korea as a critical buffer zone in Asia, while North Korea has come to rely on China’s economic, political, and military backing.
However, the alliance is now facing strain as both countries become enmeshed in a broader geopolitical entanglement tied to the Russia-Ukraine war. The United States recently revealed intelligence that thousands of North Korean troops are being deployed to support Russian forces, and reports indicate that at least 10,000 of these soldiers have already arrived in Russia’s Kursk province. As North Korean soldiers enter the fray, concerns mount over Asia’s potential escalation into a European conflict. The situation places China in an increasingly precarious position, as it seeks to maintain regional stability, manage its own domestic economic issues, and balance its role as Russia’s key ally against its reliance on Western trade.
The strategic alliance between Russia and North Korea intensified in June 2023 when Moscow and Pyongyang signed a mutual defense pact, setting the stage for the potential involvement of North Korean troops in the Russian offensive. Officially, China has distanced itself from the Russia-North Korea alliance, declaring through Foreign Ministry spokespersons that the deployment of North Korean soldiers is “their own business.” Nonetheless, analysts suggest that China is growing uneasy, realizing that its strategic goals may be undermined by Pyongyang’s recent moves.
According to Dennis Wilder, a senior research fellow at Georgetown University, China has long supplied North Korea with essential aid to sustain its economy, providing a form of “IV drip” of critical resources. Despite this dependence, China’s sway over North Korea is limited, and there is no certainty that Beijing was informed of Pyongyang’s decision to send troops to Russia. U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller stated last week that Washington had communicated its concerns to Beijing, signaling that North Korea’s role in the conflict “ought to be a source of concern for China.” Whether China has the influence to rein in Pyongyang’s participation in Russia’s war effort remains uncertain.
The Chinese government, which advocates a principle of a “common destiny” for aligned countries, faces an awkward dilemma. On the one hand, the alliance of Russia and North Korea could reinforce an anti-Western bloc, strengthening China’s position against Western influence. On the other hand, the intensifying military collaboration between Russia and North Korea brings potential instability, raising fears of an expanded conflict zone that could disrupt China’s regional interests.
Shen Dingli, an international relations expert based in Shanghai, believes that China may not fully endorse the rhetoric of a “common destiny” when it comes to the implications of North Korean military involvement in Ukraine. He argues that Beijing is uncomfortable with the prospect of aligning too closely with a North Korean regime engaging in potentially provocative actions. The risks of such alignment, he explains, could draw Western adversaries closer to China’s doorstep, intensifying the challenges China already faces on multiple fronts.
China has repeatedly accused the U.S. of stoking “new Cold War” dynamics in the region. However, the Russia-North Korea military collaboration complicates China’s stance, as it could create a bloc dynamic similar to Cold War alliances. Zhu Feng, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Nanjing University, notes that while China has sought to avoid re-establishing Cold War-era alliances, the Russia-North Korea partnership may force China’s hand, pushing it closer to a united anti-Western front.
According to Zhu, such a re-alignment does not serve China’s long-term national interests, as it intensifies polarization and draws China into an East-West dichotomy. Today’s China, Zhu argues, is not the China of the 1950s; it is a globalized economic powerhouse that relies on economic stability and diplomatic flexibility. China’s response has thus far been cautious; Beijing has largely refrained from addressing the matter publicly, focusing instead on projecting an image of neutrality and measured involvement.
For China, the principal influence over North Korea has traditionally been economic. Although China remains North Korea’s largest trade partner, trade volumes have not returned to pre-pandemic levels, whereas North Korea-Russia trade has surged. Moscow’s promise of military support to North Korea—including battlefield experience and technological assistance—signifies a potential shift in influence. With Russia’s help, North Korea could achieve military advancements that China has historically limited, wary of destabilizing the region further.
Some analysts caution that if Russia extends assistance to North Korea’s nuclear program, it would complicate China’s strategic position. Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, explains that North Korean advancements in nuclear capability, potentially aided by Russia, pose a severe challenge to global non-proliferation efforts, which China has a vested interest in upholding. China’s vision of a coalition with North Korea and Russia places it in the lead; however, Russia’s potential willingness to support North Korea’s nuclear program threatens this delicate balance.
The presence of North Korean troops in Ukraine raises concerns that Europe may respond by heightening its engagement in Asian security matters, which could result in the formation of a NATO-like alliance in Asia. Such a shift would likely include countries such as Japan and South Korea, both of which have deep-rooted security concerns regarding North Korea. Shen Dingli observes that this development could lead to the rise of an “Asian NATO,” which China fears would shift the balance of power in Asia and heighten tensions in contentious areas, particularly Taiwan.
The situation is further complicated by China’s desire to avoid a more powerful, militarized North Korea, as this could disturb the delicate peace in East Asia. At the same time, Beijing understands that a complete Russian defeat in Ukraine could embolden NATO and weaken Russia, leaving China more exposed on the global stage. As Xi Jinping works to establish a multilateral framework opposing Western dominance, Russia’s role in that framework remains crucial.
The Russia-Ukraine war has forced China to perform a complex balancing act. A strong alliance with Russia provides China with a partner in counterbalancing U.S. influence, but an overly assertive North Korea introduces new challenges. International law professor Peter Dutton from the U.S. Naval War College notes that China has spent decades carefully nurturing its relationship with Russia to align with its broader strategic goals, such as Belt and Road projects and maintaining regional stability. Yet these recent developments have the potential to derail China’s carefully constructed alliances.
Domestically, China is grappling with economic issues, including a slowdown in growth, a real estate market slump, and rising youth unemployment. The economic ramifications of a prolonged European conflict are particularly unwelcome as China seeks to stabilize its domestic economy. A strong Russian victory could embolden a more cohesive NATO response against both Russia and China, whereas a weakened Russia might force China to shoulder more responsibility for regional security in Asia, placing additional strain on its resources.
For now, China appears to be taking a cautious approach, publicly maintaining that North Korea’s decision to deploy troops to Russia is “their own business” while keeping its own response subdued. Chinese state media has largely refrained from reporting on the matter, preferring to focus on domestic issues. This stance suggests a desire to avoid further entanglement in a foreign conflict and retain its strategic autonomy.
China’s reluctance to voice explicit disapproval may indicate an attempt to wait out the situation, assessing how the involvement of North Korean troops affects the dynamics of the Ukraine war. Yet some Chinese academics are calling for vigilance, emphasizing the risks of passivity. Feng Yujun, a professor at Peking University, warns in an article translated by Sinification, a Chinese political analysis newsletter, that China cannot ignore the historical lesson that gradual shifts can lead to major geopolitical transformations.
