The international defense community is keenly focused on China’s upcoming Zhuhai Air Show, set to be held from November 12 to 17, where the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will debut several highly anticipated military assets. Among them are two major platforms that have sparked interest worldwide: the J-35A fifth-generation stealth fighter jet and the HQ-19 anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defense system. The HQ-19, expected to be China’s answer to the U.S. THAAD system, will be on static display, giving military analysts and defense enthusiasts alike a rare glimpse into China’s evolving missile defense capabilities.
The HQ-19 is being hailed as the potential “game-changer” in China’s ballistic missile defense arsenal. Details on this system have been sparse, with most information coming through unofficial channels and reports. However, images of the HQ-19’s launcher surfaced on X (formerly Twitter) on November 5, prompting widespread speculation and analysis.
A leading PLA observer, Rick Joe, wrote on X, “If this is indeed HQ-19, and the ABM system that’s been rumored for years, I’d rank this above the J-35A in terms of significance.” This sentiment has been echoed by various military analysts who see the HQ-19 as a critical addition to China’s missile defense, aligning it more closely with the U.S.’s capabilities, especially THAAD.
While THAAD, short for Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, provides exoatmospheric (high-altitude) interception of ballistic missiles, the HQ-19 is speculated to offer a similar reach. The HQ-19’s anticipated range of 1,000 to 3,000 kilometers puts it close to THAAD’s known operational capability, which can engage targets at up to 3,000 kilometers in its forward-deployed mode.
China’s advancements in ABM systems reflect its need for defense capabilities against increasingly sophisticated missile threats in the Asia-Pacific region. The HQ-19 appears to be an essential part of a broader layered missile defense strategy that would include shorter and longer-range interceptors, helping China protect against potential missile strikes at various stages of their trajectory.
The HQ-19, thought to employ a “hit-to-kill” mechanism similar to THAAD, could allow China to intercept missiles in the mid-course phase, considered the longest and most challenging phase for successful interception. This capability underscores China’s ambitions to develop a robust ABM system that is difficult to penetrate, both in terms of range and technological resilience.
Military experts note that intercepting missiles in the mid-course phase requires precision, given that it occurs in the exo-atmosphere where speeds are highest, and factors like Earth’s gravitational pull can complicate targeting. An unnamed Pentagon source mentioned that the HQ-19 likely leverages a “hit-to-kill” approach, which could mark a technological leap in China’s missile interception capabilities.
According to Global Times, the HQ-19’s display at the Zhuhai Air Show will be accompanied by other premier platforms, including the new J-35A stealth fighter jet and an advanced armed reconnaissance drone. This lineup represents the diversity of China’s defense developments, particularly those aimed at augmenting its air and missile defense.
The J-35A, China’s latest stealth fighter, has attracted international interest as it propels the country closer to achieving technological parity with the United States. As the second fifth-generation stealth jet in China’s arsenal—following the J-20—the J-35A is likely to cement China’s position as one of the world’s few nations with advanced, indigenously developed stealth capabilities.
Lieutenant General Yu Qingjiang, Vice Commander of the PLA Air Force, shared that the air show would serve as a platform to display China’s extensive aerial combat, airstrike, and unmanned warfare capabilities. “The show will highlight new equipment for air combat, early warning, strategic delivery, and air defense,” he said, emphasizing the air force’s commitment to counter-unmanned threats.
The HQ-19 is believed to operate as the middle layer of China’s evolving multi-layered ballistic missile defense (BMD) system. This setup likely includes interceptors for both high-altitude, long-range threats, and lower-altitude, short-to-medium-range threats.
Reports suggest that China successfully conducted mid-course missile interception tests in June 2022 and April 2023, speculated to involve the HQ-19 system. Each test generated intense interest within defense circles, with experts asserting that China’s multi-layered ABM strategy is progressing faster than anticipated.
The Pentagon’s annual assessments of China’s military strength have occasionally alluded to the HQ-19, referring to it as the CH-AB-X-02 in early reports. The U.S. Defense Department’s assessments in 2020 and 2021 noted China’s advances in surface-to-air missile systems potentially capable of intercepting ballistic missiles.
One expert, Hurin, predicted on X that “the HQ-19 will be the biggest highlight of Zhuhai, alongside the J-35A,” adding that demand for such systems might surge internationally. However, China has yet to reveal any potential plans to export the HQ-19.
The 2024 Zhuhai Air Show will also feature 36 aircraft types, with both aerial flight demonstrations and static displays planned. Highlights include the J-20 stealth fighter, the J-16 multirole fighter jet, and the YU-20A tanker aircraft, all expected to perform live flight demonstrations. Two elite aerobatic teams, the Bayi and Red Falcon, will also take part, showcasing the PLA Air Force’s capabilities in advanced aerial maneuvers and strategic air combat.
For the first time, the Y-20 transport aircraft’s cargo compartment will be open for public viewing, with access granted through a lottery system. This transparency reflects the PLA’s approach to showcasing its operational capabilities in a controlled manner.
Adding to the excitement, international defense industry giants, including 1,022 companies from 49 countries, are slated to participate in the show. Additionally, Russian contributions, including the Su-57 fifth-generation stealth fighter and the An-124 large transport aircraft, will bolster the event’s profile.
The Zhuhai Air Show demonstrates China’s resolve to catch up to, and potentially exceed, U.S. capabilities in areas like stealth technology, missile defense, and UAV development. The HQ-19 is a case in point, reflecting China’s desire to master ABM technologies that were, until recently, largely monopolized by the United States and its allies.
Lieutenant General Yu explained that this air show edition, the fifteenth in its history, coincides with the 75th anniversary of the PLA Air Force. For China, this timing is symbolic, highlighting the PLA’s journey from a comparatively modest force to a technologically sophisticated player on the global stage.
China’s commitment to developing multi-layered ABM systems signals its intent to prepare for a broad spectrum of threats, especially from advanced militaries. The HQ-19, while just one component of China’s BMD efforts, highlights the country’s strategic pivot toward defensive capabilities that could mitigate missile threats from any future adversary.
Although specific details about the HQ-19 remain largely speculative, its anticipated debut at the Zhuhai Air Show will likely provide the international community with much-needed insights into China’s missile defense advances.
The anticipation leading up to the Zhuhai Air Show underscores a pivotal shift in China’s military strategy and technological capabilities, with both the J-35A and HQ-19 marking a new phase in the PLA’s modernization efforts. As observers worldwide await the official unveiling of these assets, it is clear that China’s trajectory in defense innovation is closely aligned with its vision for enhanced security and technological prowess on the global stage.
With the upcoming air show, Beijing is poised not only to exhibit its newest military assets but also to assert its role as a formidable player in the increasingly competitive domain of advanced military technology. The international spotlight will remain on Zhuhai, with the HQ-19 and J-35A poised to redefine the PLA’s image and capabilities for years to come.
