In a notable diplomatic exchange, China extended its congratulations to Donald Trump following his victory in the recent U.S. presidential election. According to statements from China’s Foreign Ministry, the Republican candidate received well-wishes from Beijing for his win over Democratic opponent Kamala Harris. While the world watched reactions pour in from global leaders, China’s swift response came as a marked contrast to its 2020 delay in recognizing President Joe Biden’s win.
Sources, including CNN, have reported that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping exchanged pleasantries during a phone call on Wednesday, during which Xi offered his personal congratulations. This call, as brief as it was symbolic, reflects the layered and often tense relationship between the U.S. and China—two superpowers whose interactions shape global dynamics on everything from trade to technology, human rights, and international alliances.
China’s rapid response to Trump’s electoral victory, announced through a Foreign Ministry spokesperson, emphasized Beijing’s respect for “the choice of the American people” and its willingness to acknowledge the result promptly. “We respect the choice of the American people and congratulate Mr. Trump on being elected as president of the United States,” the spokesperson remarked late Wednesday night. The response signals a noticeable change from Beijing’s approach in 2020, when it hesitated to acknowledge Joe Biden’s win amidst Trump’s unyielding contestation of the results.
Beijing’s current approach suggests a complex calculus in its relations with the U.S., aiming perhaps to signal openness to diplomatic channels even as contentious issues such as trade and military positioning in the Indo-Pacific loom over the horizon. Experts speculate that China’s decision to extend congratulations to Trump so quickly may also be a tactical acknowledgment of the bilateral challenges and benefits at stake.
Trump’s return to the White House heralds the potential for a rekindling of the trade war that he initiated in 2018, a protracted economic confrontation that saw tit-for-tat tariffs and sanctions imposed on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods from both countries. The former president had sought to pressure China into renegotiating trade terms more favorable to the U.S., addressing concerns over intellectual property theft, forced technology transfers, and a ballooning trade deficit.
In his campaign rhetoric, Trump hinted at an even tougher stance on trade with China, with threats to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 60% if necessary. Analysts warn that such tariffs could cripple trade between the world’s two largest economies and severely impact China’s export-dependent economy, adding to the economic strain already felt due to its sluggish post-pandemic recovery.
Trump’s stance on China remains aligned with his previous “America First” policy, which sought to boost domestic manufacturing and curb dependence on Chinese imports. But with inflation concerns and supply chain vulnerabilities in the U.S., the potential impact on American consumers could be significant, possibly leading to increased prices on essential goods. Economists caution that both economies could be adversely affected if Trump’s aggressive trade policies go into effect.
The renewed U.S.-China dynamic under Trump’s leadership is likely to include increased scrutiny of Chinese companies operating within the U.S. and harsher policies regarding data privacy and intellectual property. In his first term, Trump moved to restrict the operations of Chinese tech giants like Huawei and TikTok, citing security concerns over the Chinese government’s potential access to user data. He also pushed for a “decoupling” of the two economies, urging American companies to shift supply chains away from China and back to the U.S. or allied countries.
China’s response to these moves has been measured, but in recent years, Beijing has intensified its push for technological self-reliance, focusing on bolstering its semiconductor industry and reducing its dependency on U.S. imports. This strategic pivot suggests that China anticipates future tensions and is gearing up for a more self-sufficient and resilient economy, even if it means enduring short-term economic pain.
Beyond trade, the U.S. and China are also expected to continue their strategic rivalry in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. Trump has consistently been outspoken about his support for Taiwan, a democratic island that China views as a breakaway province. His support for arms sales to Taiwan and the deployment of U.S. naval forces in the region could exacerbate tensions with China, which has increased its military activities around Taiwan in response.
Moreover, the U.S. military’s continued presence in the South China Sea, a critical waterway for global trade, has long been a point of contention. China’s territorial claims in the area have led to increased militarization, including the construction of artificial islands equipped with military facilities. Trump’s assertive stance on China’s regional ambitions may signal a continuation of these policies, likely escalating U.S.-China military tensions and increasing the risk of maritime confrontations.
In addition to Taiwan, U.S. alliances with regional players like Japan, South Korea, and Australia could serve as counterweights to China’s influence. During his campaign, Trump suggested bolstering these alliances to create a united front against China, particularly in terms of economic resilience and regional security. Such moves are likely to receive close scrutiny from Beijing, which views these partnerships as attempts to contain its rise.
The re-escalation of trade hostilities between the U.S. and China would have broad implications not only for the two countries but also for the global economy. The 2018 trade war demonstrated the potential for such tensions to disrupt global supply chains, increase costs for businesses, and impact consumers worldwide. This time, however, the stakes are even higher as the global economy contends with the aftereffects of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation concerns, and a looming energy crisis.
If Trump were to impose a 60% levy on Chinese imports, as he has threatened, the impact could be devastating for China’s manufacturing sector, which is already grappling with high debt levels and weaker demand. Analysts warn that China’s economic growth, which has slowed significantly in recent years, could suffer further setbacks, potentially leading to increased unemployment and social unrest.
For the U.S., higher tariffs would likely lead to increased prices for consumer goods and materials, exacerbating inflation concerns and putting additional pressure on American households. However, Trump’s trade policies may also create opportunities for American manufacturers, as domestic production could become more competitive compared to Chinese imports. Still, achieving significant shifts in supply chains will take time and require substantial investment in domestic infrastructure and workforce development.
The U.S.-China rivalry will also test the resilience of international organizations such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), which struggled to mediate during the previous trade war. Trump’s criticism of multilateral institutions, combined with his reluctance to engage in multinational trade agreements, has raised concerns about the future of global cooperation in addressing trade disputes.
European allies, many of whom are wary of China’s influence but also reliant on its economy, may find themselves caught in the middle. The European Union has adopted a cautious approach to China, balancing its economic interests with a growing focus on human rights and security concerns. Should Trump intensify his stance against China, European nations may feel pressured to align more closely with the U.S., potentially at the expense of their economic ties with China.
While the immediate tone between Trump and Xi seems cordial, the broader U.S.-China relationship remains precarious. Experts suggest that Beijing may attempt to engage with the Trump administration on selective areas of mutual interest, such as climate change or public health, while pushing back against American policies that threaten its core interests. However, the prospect of “decoupling”—severing economic and technological ties between the two countries—continues to loom large.
A full decoupling, while unlikely, would reshape the global economic landscape, affecting industries and economies far beyond the borders of the U.S. and China. The technology sector, in particular, would face significant disruptions, as companies and consumers rely heavily on Chinese manufacturing and American innovation. The extent to which each side is willing to pursue such a path will likely depend on both economic considerations and national security concerns.
